Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

Charts from today's edition of the webinar Bulls vs. Bears @ The Trading Room 11:30 GMT Mon - Fri
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Still bullish as long as we trade above 1.3355. No signs of reveal yet. Taking it easy.



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SP and dow selling off profit taking maybe from scary oil price
well Dow now at critical levels on stocks in usa
she breaks and sp breaks we can see eu hit 3350, 3320, 3310 possibly 3300 by end of day
in any case DJ is nice as im short

5-Minute Divergence and Up coming Housing Number Could Give Euro a Lift

Originally Posted by cw1

SP and dow selling off profit taking maybe from scary oil price
well Dow now at critical levels on stocks in usa
she breaks and sp breaks we can see eu hit 3350, 3320, 3310 possibly 3300 by end of day
in any case DJ is nice as im short

But we just had a 3 wave correction with an ending diagonal in the C wave position? We should see 5 legs up at least, although of course it could be truncated and be a little less exciting that many would want. Any other wave pattern, you are thinking of?

Here is a possible count for this wave up from the bottom - iv of iii currently - not so sure at the moment till we see what the reaction is off this next rise up, but a possible count nevertheless.

Originally Posted by Clivewaverider

But we just had a 3 wave correction with an ending diagonal in the C wave position? We should see 5 legs up at least, although of course it could be truncated and be a little less exciting that many would want. Any other wave pattern, you are thinking of?

Here is a possible count for this wave up from the bottom - iv of iii currently - not so sure at the moment till we see what the reaction is off this next rise up, but a possible count nevertheless.

i do not use elliot wave sorry - no idea on that. I am simply using support and resistance together with use of divergence. For me its a no brainer here now.... if price can stay above 3375 or 55 i will trade longs
if she breaks 55 i will start shorting again lower highs on 5 min

Originally Posted by cw1

i do not use elliot wave sorry - no idea on that. I am simply using support and resistance together with use of divergence. For me its a no brainer here now.... if price can stay above 3375 or 55 i will trade longs
if she breaks 55 i will start shorting again lower highs on 5 min

Yep - me too. Hopefully the EW counts supports us as well. Fingers crossed. Weekly R1 is 1.3566 - could be nice ride

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

5-Minute Divergence and Up coming Housing Number Could Give Euro a Lift

Originally Posted by Clivewaverider

But we just had a 3 wave correction with an ending diagonal in the C wave position? We should see 5 legs up at least, although of course it could be truncated and be a little less exciting that many would want. Any other wave pattern, you are thinking of?

Here is a possible count for this wave up from the bottom - iv of iii currently - not so sure at the moment till we see what the reaction is off this next rise up, but a possible count nevertheless.

Pending Home Sales Surprise to the Upside Taking Euro Up Too- Euro could pullback to retest breakout point before moving higher. German vote on Greek Bailout plan later in the day may be the needed catalyst. I looking for 1.3503 if we stay above cw1 make or break level for the Euro at 1.3355.

Current pullback could provide a chance for re-entry long.

Hey Clivewaverider, I like your count!

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Pending Home Sales Surprise to the Upside Taking Euro Up Too- Euro could pullback to retest breakout point before moving higher. German vote on Greek Bailout plan later in the day may be the needed catalyst. I looking for 1.3503 if we stay above cw1 make or break level for the Euro at 1.3355.

Current pullback could provide a chance for re-entry long.

Hey Clivewaverider, I like your count!

If we get that wave 3, I reckon everyone on the forum here will be happy!!!!!

What a rebound had DAX after hit that support line and also the rebound can be been seen on DJIA too

psychology:been thinking alot lately about psychology in life an trading trying to find balance .in life i am a giving forgivable ,caring, person . seeing the potenial best in all constantly seeing my World & all around it evolving to higher levels.But in trading i must have a different mindset, feeling ,emotions,hope.cannot exist. they are signs of failure.this is a stuggle i have been dealing with since day one. but because of the type of studying i do for my progress in becoming a master trader. i constantly am able to see this working out in both parts of my life. (A) making me a more senative an aware person of myself an our World. (B) as i apply this knowledge to the markets ,for a person who at one time thought they had limited ability. i know limited ability are only limited to your mindset.( my opinion is our comlpete body exist to support our mind.) so as a trader my mind must be as ( Sun Tzu ) the art of War.)( so i must learn to live the life of Jeykll & Hyde. March Issue of Stocks & Commodities has a great article by Ronald M. Brandt.(Changing The Trader,s Minddset.) I have just shared some of my weaknesses, hope, & strengths. on a journey.

EUR/USD London session review and outlook February 27 - 2011




Regards

Alejandro Zambrano
Currency Strategist | DailyFX Forum (London)
azambrano@fxcm.com

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Originally Posted by nopainnogain

psychology:been thinking alot lately about psychology in life an trading trying to find balance .in life i am a giving forgivable ,caring, person . seeing the potenial best in all constantly seeing my World & all around it evolving to higher levels.But in trading i must have a different mindset, feeling ,emotions,hope.cannot exist. they are signs of failure.this is a stuggle i have been dealing with since day one. but because of the type of studying i do for my progress in becoming a master trader. i constantly am able to see this working out in both parts of my life. (A) making me a more senative an aware person of myself an our World. (B) as i apply this knowledge to the markets ,for a person who at one time thought they had limited ability. i know limited ability are only limited to your mindset.( my opinion is our comlpete body exist to support our mind.) so as a trader my mind must be as ( Sun Tzu ) the art of War.)( so i must learn to live the life of Jeykll & Hyde. March Issue of Stocks & Commodities has a great article by Ronald M. Brandt.(Changing The Trader,s Minddset.) I have just shared some of my weaknesses, hope, & strengths. on a journey.

Thanks for sharing that - not a common thread here! If the 'master trader' is akin to a cotton thread pulled taut (bear with me!) then my whole journey with this trading lark is realising over and over that I just got my piece of cotton snagged on a nail. Each time I get to the nail, I have to un-snag it and the whole piece of cotton goes saggy again. Realising that this career is an opportunity to never reach maximum potential is what excites me so much. The outcomes are apparantly limitless and my weekly goal setting (or in the real world, what could I buy if I earned 'x') are getting really very exciting. I am not an overtly materialistic perosn, so I guage outcomes in terms such as 'secure' and 'no debt' etc, but very very soothing to the scars of trading.

Anyone else sharing?

Originally Posted by Clivewaverider

If we get that wave 3, I reckon everyone on the forum here will be happy!!!!!

Uh.....not everyone.

According to the DailyFX Plus Speculative Sentiment, FXCM retail traders are heavily long dollar and yen.

SSI Details:
EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -2.02 as nearly 67% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -2.27 as 69% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 7.4% higher than yesterday and 22.1% weaker since last week. Short positions are 4.5% lower than yesterday and 1.5% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.9% weaker than yesterday and 0.8% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.
GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.65 as nearly 62% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -2.44 as 71% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 34.9% higher than yesterday and 10.5% stronger since last week. Short positions are 9.1% lower than yesterday and 25.7% weaker since last week. Open interest is 3.7% stronger than yesterday and 5.4% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.
GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at 1.06 as nearly 52% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.38 as 58% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 11.9% higher than yesterday and 16.1% weaker since last week. Short positions are 23.8% lower than yesterday and 22.9% weaker since last week. Open interest is 8.8% weaker than yesterday and 15.8% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY losses.
USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.97 as nearly 66% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.39 as 58% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 8.6% higher than yesterday and 8.8% weaker since last week. Short positions are 23.0% lower than yesterday and 6.9% weaker since last week. Open interest is 4.6% weaker than yesterday and 27.0% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.
USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 2.95 as nearly 75% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 3.00 as 75% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 0.7% lower than yesterday and 13.1% stronger since last week. Short positions are 0.8% higher than yesterday and 9.5% weaker since last week. Open interest is 0.3% weaker than yesterday and 14.2% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.
USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 2.02 as nearly 67% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.82 as 65% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 6.8% higher than yesterday and 17.9% weaker since last week. Short positions are 4.0% lower than yesterday and 9.0% stronger since last week. Open interest is 2.9% stronger than yesterday and 5.9% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.
AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -2.37 as nearly 70% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.87 as 65% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 7.2% lower than yesterday and 10.0% weaker since last week. Short positions are 17.7% higher than yesterday and 14.3% stronger since last week. Open interest is 9.0% stronger than yesterday and 6.4% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD gains.
NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at -2.23 as nearly 69% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.86 as 65% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 2.8% lower than yesterday and 7.1% weaker since last week. Short positions are 16.7% higher than yesterday and 7.9% weaker since last week. Open interest is 9.9% stronger than yesterday and 0.4% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD gains.
EURCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURCHF stands at 26.95 as nearly 96% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 28.51 as 97% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 1.1% lower than yesterday and 4.0% stronger since last week. Short positions are 4.7% higher than yesterday and 34.2% weaker since last week. Open interest is 0.9% weaker than yesterday and 3.5% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURCHF losses.

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Got short at the open for the pullback move. However im ready at support for a potential bull run. My only change in view would be for the daily candle to close below 3335 daily TL but until then, Longs are my friend.