I see. Can we start over? Well, I'm a "fundamentals" guy. I saw the USD/Everything rally as being a bit over-extended because it was based on the assumption that every number was going to be better and better, which wouldn't always be the case; the sharp negative reaction to numbers that said "Nothing to see here, move along" instead of "Everything's rosy!" did take me by surprise, but I was long on Loonie, Aussie, Kiwi vs. USD when the spike came, so I made a bit of fast money to offset the bath I'm taking on EUR/USD and EUR/JPY shorts. Since this is the EUR/USD board, I was hoping somebody had an answer for why the spike was so especially concentrated on the Euro. The news is: overseas companies are accumulating mountains of euros that they need to convert to their home currencies, at an accelerating pace; the Greek partial default led to Asian banks dumping their Portuguese, Spanish, Italian bonds adding to the mountain of unsold euros; the Central Bank of Japan has gotten tired of dumping yen, because they don't like domestic inflation; GBP is taking over the role of hold-in-reserve dollar-alternative. That's not just me: all week long the "newsy" analysts were saying the Eurozone needs their currency to depreciate 5-10%, and quickly; and the "charty" analysts were talking about head-and-shoulders top and bearish-engulfing candlesticks, and looking for a down channel to the low 1.2xxx range. So I keep shorting the euro like an abused wife coming back to a husband who's bound to change. That huge blue spike this morning has me feeling down, and I think I'm just going to walk away for the day, leaving my shorts in so they can turn around (yeah, right) or bite me some more (whatever). But I would feel less like "everything I know is wrong" if somebody could give me a clue who is buying up tons of euros right now.
What you probably are asking is why EURUSD is going up when you are shorting? If not, I don't understand why traders care to know who is buying euros...
Price does not move according to fundamentals, or technicals, or news. Price is moved by the masters and algos. Why price is moved in a certain way is pre-planned. I hope through price actions and technicals, I can "predict" what the algos is going to do. I do not expect to be able to "predict" the masters. I do hope they follows trendlines and EWs, then it'll be easier..., but more often than not, they will use those knowledge to their advantage to accumulate their positions ...
this is my most "fundamental" market law, and I hope it makes you feel better in some way.
Sorry to barge in and I don't particularly understand your outlook. But from a technical perspective, euro on 4H is making a down sloping wedge with 3 pushes, which is almost a sure sign of reversal, there is also a wedge with 3-push on 1H from Tuesday to Wednesday, on 1H timeframe, you can see yesterday's high took out a pivot high of the day before, so in Dow Theory terms, that's a warning for trend reversal. Then this morning it retraced down to a perfect 61.8% with clearly bullish sign candles even on 1H timeframe before the bust up. The retracement low is also a retest of the 4H trendline that it broke up yesterday. It's current high stalled at 161.8% extension of the range. I don't know where you shorted from, but from Wednesday onward, the downside momentum has been clearly slowing and price was very reluctant to go down. I would not have gone short from Wednesday onward.
Even though one's long term fundamental outlook is right, I think prices are due for at least technical correction from time to time. Nothing goes in a straight line. Then I guess it's a matter of one's capitalisation and risk appetite for draw down, one's trading timeframe etc. that would determine if it hurts and how much hurt one can take.
I'm short from 1.3101 and could have escaped with a minor + (yeah, yeah, coulda woulda shoulda...) but I intended to hold for a week or so and see if it could break down through 1.3000. This looks like a little more than a "technical correction" though: since the run-up it has plateaued at a place it seems to want to hang around, ~131717 for a while? I just don't know: I didn't think this was a matter of "long term" fundamentals, but of something very imminent, indeed overdue. Luxuriant's sig-line says "Trade what you see, not what you think": what I SEE is Wile E. Coyote way off the cliff and treading air; what I THINK is that Acme's Jet Pack must be working for him this time, somehow.
nice head and shoulder, how about this huge one for gu?
of course it is still not confirm yet...lol
Hi,
Highly unlikely:
From delta perspective: - There is a big likelihood MTD 11 bottom is in with a late ITD6. ITD7 was due on 13th so its top is late hence indicating uptrend. ITD8 bottom is 7 trading days away so I expect ITD7 top to consume some 2-3 more days. Cable usssualy tops arround newmoon days and that is march the 22nd.
From EW perspective: Drop from 1.5990 is by no means impulsive. Its either a double double zigzag or a tripple zz - check fibo relations between moves - no mattter how you count it you always get the following extensions : 1to1 , 1 to 1.27 or 1 to 1.41 - that is a corrective move.
from ichi perspective: 4h relatively thick cloud has been broken. Daily cloud provided strong support. Weekly candlestick will end as a bullish engoulfing or even a bullish outside week. Weekly kijun sen privided support. Res comes in a form of a very thin cloud arround 1.6.
I suspect ITD7 top should be arround 1.6012 which is 2.618 extension of the first zigzag up from 1.56.
What you probably are asking is why EURUSD is going up when you are shorting?
Obviously, everybody else gets a special news feed, "Bob is shorting! Let's play with his head!" ;-)
Surely you have had the experience of feeling you have magical powers to make the market move the wrong way. Today I think I can absolutely guarantee Obama's re-election, just by placing large bets against the US economy.
Originally Posted by Paul Chin
If not, I don't understand why traders care to know who is buying euros...
Price does not move according to fundamentals, or technicals, or news. Price is moved by the masters and algos. Why price is moved in a certain way is pre-planned. I hope through price actions and technicals, I can "predict" what the algos is going to do. I do not expect to be able to "predict" the masters. I do hope they follows trendlines and EWs, then it'll be easier..., but more often than not, they will use those knowledge to their advantage to accumulate their positions ...
this is my most "fundamental" market law, and I hope it makes you feel better in some way.
Good luck!
Well, all the Forex traders in the world are just the statistical noise in the overall business. The "masters" aren't Gnomes or Illuminati operating in secret: the Big Boys are corporations and banks whose names we all know perfectly well. USD/JPY isn't driven by people staring at charts: the Big Boys there are companies like Toyota, Sony, etc. selling tons of cars and stereos in California for $ which they need to convert to yen to pay salaries back home; as long as there are more companies selling dollars for yen than vice versa, there is a pull down; the Central Bank of Japan doesn't like that as it will eventually price those companies too high to keep selling well, so from time to time they "turn on the printing press" and flood the market with yen to push USD/JPY (especially, but also EUR/JPY) up. That was going on last week, with the Fed doing nothing to flood the market with new dollars in counter-action; also, Toyota announced a recall, not a major one but it meant for a few days Toyota wasn't selling their dollars for yen, but hanging on to them to prepare for expenses foreseeable in the US. Thus, bullish USD/JPY until late in the week the Central Bank of Japan decided they had done as much as they could without injuring the currency's credibility (like Germans, they fear inflation) and Toyota had built up its reserve enough. I foolishly shorted EUR/JPY while this was starting; I did see the Bank of Japan chair saying "We will continue to take appropriate actions" but did not decode the Japanese version of Fed-speak; I fought the BoJ and the BoJ won.
In the EUR/USD case, though, I just cannot see who the Big Boy is. Corporations are selling 2 billion more euros a day than they are buying; that's a lot. Asian central banks are dumping euros too. Switzerland is the only bank I know of that is buying up a lot of euros, to defend their own currency-peg, but they are not that big. Is the IMF buying up euros? That would be so seriously against Europe's interest that I would expect that would be stopped. There's some piece of the puzzle that is eluding me.
Looking to play the levels/range ..entering short @ 3175 for 3125
Expecting it to retrace and form a shoulder eventually ...but that is to be seen later
Another interesting trade coming up in AUDCAD, confluence of EMAs and TLs ...looks like a strong signal coming up for clear buy/sell for around 75-100 pips ...currently looks quite Bullish
what you think of a "v" shaped continuation of the trend?
Hi,
USS Enterprise is 24h away from Suez en route to the Strait of Hormuz - there will be 3 carrieres there plus one LHD vessel. I think any news coming from EU has a chance to be dwarfed by MENA fireworks in the coming days/weeks.
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Sorry to barge in and I don't particularly understand your outlook. But from a technical perspective, euro on 4H is making a down sloping wedge with 3 pushes, which is almost a sure sign of reversal, there is also a wedge with 3-push on 1H from Tuesday to Wednesday, on 1H timeframe, you can see yesterday's high took out a pivot high of the day before, so in Dow Theory terms, that's a warning for trend reversal. Then this morning it retraced down to a perfect 61.8% with clearly bullish sign candles even on 1H timeframe before the bust up. The retracement low is also a retest of the 4H trendline that it broke up yesterday. It's current high stalled at 161.8% extension of the range. I don't know where you shorted from, but from Wednesday onward, the downside momentum has been clearly slowing and price was very reluctant to go down. I would not have gone short from Wednesday onward.
Even though one's long term fundamental outlook is right, I think prices are due for at least technical correction from time to time. Nothing goes in a straight line. Then I guess it's a matter of one's capitalisation and risk appetite for draw down, one's trading timeframe etc. that would determine if it hurts and how much hurt one can take.
EURUSD: Short Position Still in Play | DailyFX
is an example of the technical-chart type of analysis that persuaded me my "fundamentals" analysis wasn't off base. And that was just before the big blue spike!
EURUSD: Short Position Still in Play | DailyFX
is an example of the technical-chart type of analysis that persuaded me my "fundamentals" analysis wasn't off base. And that was just before the big blue spike!
Have you tracked any specific analyst's forecast performance over a significant period of time to place faith on their analytic calls? And I got the impression that Spivak mostly trades daily candles, and for his style and risk tolerance today's spike would not concern him much at all. That's why it's hard to follow others' trade calls or analysis even if simply for different risk tolerance and money management.
I see now that are going up to 1.33 which will be 2 and then we receive down to 3 which is 1.25..
Go up next is 3 -13246
4- 1.3170
5 -1.33 what is the fibonacci 61.8 from 1.3484 to 1.3003
good weekend to all.
Have you tracked any specific analyst's forecast performance over a significant period of time to place faith on their analytic calls? And I got the impression that Spivak mostly trades daily candles, and for his style and risk tolerance today's spike would not concern him much at all. That's why it's hard to follow others' trade calls or analysis even if simply for different risk tolerance and money management.
I do not know enough about technical analysis to presume to do meta-analysis on a bunch of analysts. We will have to see what Ilya says next time, but I think today's spike is something that stands out on any scale. Anyhow, the reason I "bought" Ilya's bearish assessment over Alejandro's more bullish outlook is, of course, confirmation bias (we believe what fits with what we already believe). I am playing with pure throw-away money, so I was planning to leave the trade in for a week and ride out any ups and downs, but 100 pips to the bad while I went downstairs to get a cup of coffee and work the crossword puzzle shook me up more than a little.
And I guess I'm just too much of a "fundie" to accept that "[shrug] it happens" without some concept of "why?" I can see reasons for the dollar pullback, though surprised at its speed in reaction to a nothing-much piece of news, but cannot fathom a euro rally at this juncture. This is not Malaysia where the combined weight of the traders can overwhelm the local Big Boys: in the world outside of the speculative bubble, there is a huge imbalance of euros that need to be sold over euros that companies need to buy, or Saudi princes want to buy and hold. It's a matter of hydraulics: all this water flows in there and never comes out-- really? What's the "sponge"?
Central banks are generally the sponge; but the Fed said No a long time ago to throwing in its weight; the ECB wants the euro down, not up; Bank of Japan decided they were sopping wet a couple days ago, after weeks of forcing USD/JPY and EUR/JPY rallies (maybe they'll do some more "Asset Purchase" again next week, but I think they're close to their limit). The monthly Eurozone cash-flow deficit, that I singled out as the only OMG! "horror" number (tripled in a month) in the recent news, is similar in magnitude to the yearly US cash-flow deficits that fundies used to decry back in the stagflation decades: of course, dollar amounts from now translate to less than quarters back then, and the reason why is precisely that steady deficit (more dollars to be sold by foreigners than dollars bought with foreign currency by US exporters; so, price had to go down until somebody would buy); just so, the euro has to come down unless somebody somewhere is buying those billions a day, and holding them (or burning them? I mean really, I just don't get where they're going). Maybe that whole deficit happened in the beginning of the month, and the slide from ~1.35 to ~1.31 was enough to improve European companies' competitiveness so their sales are back up and the imbalance is all fixed-- but it sure doesn't look it. What I read is that the drop needed to be at least twice that large (and here again, this is a kind of analysis I don't know enough about to decide if the "experts" are right, just, "sounds good to me"), down to near the January low for European trade to stabilize. Until that happens, excess selling pressure has to continue: a million Forex traders have to accept a couple thousand of their euro-long contracts as deliveries of actual euros, to be spent on trips to Paris, every day-- uh, or maybe not; how about a thousand Saudi princes have to shift a couple million from dollar-denominated accounts to euro-denominated accounts, every day; how is this working?
In this strategy the analyst has 'anticipated' a certain price movement based on a chart pattern before the actual breakout happened
One reason why this probably didn't go as you planned
The neckline on the said HnS played support instead of the 'aniticpated' breakout region
The said HnS never came into play
Also, when we talk about fundamentals, profit booking is more fundamental in nature than technical i suppose. A 500 pips fall in two weeks warrants profit booking as a logical fundamental step
Apart that the shorter the time frame the stronger technical analysis, and longer the TF stronger the fundamental analysis
So a one day movement shouldn't really be bugging you that much if you are a fundie, coz fundas don't change over few hours or days
Originally Posted by Robert Eckert
EURUSD: Short Position Still in Play | DailyFX
is an example of the technical-chart type of analysis that persuaded me my "fundamentals" analysis wasn't off base. And that was just before the big blue spike!
Things can turn around for DX SPOT at imp resis..
Euro possibly to 3110-15 if breaks poss inv HNS neck on 30 mins..
3160-70 if bounce continues..
A break under 1.3000 tgts 2830ish in coming days...
GL...
Depends on how once look at it, there is no doubt there are plenty of HNS & INV HNS on different time frames on euro.......
I'm using a weekly where at the present we are working a possible inv HNS and on daily a clear Reg HNS is there.
Keeping in account what I see on DX and as mentioned 2 days back DX at critical resis and is bound for a correction or reversal, it has played out well and has dipped under a main supporting TL as of now and closing under it. With that in regards, I see a possibility of a move on euro to 3360-70 initially.. A retrace and a possibly breaking above 3590-3610...
Well staying pure technical here, since there is a likley possibility of either a HNS or an inv HNS on charts, I be paying attention to the DX, whereby if the DX 8 hrs closes above the resis TL RED line which earlier was supp, I would have to negate the factor we are working an inv HNS move and pressure would mound to the south side on the euro and would prefer selling euro for a break under 1.3000 and a move to a 1.2830ish or slightly lower to it..
A bigger move could unfold if we can break under that supp TL around 1.28 and a slide to 1.22 would be preferred.. I don't want to complicate things here, but sliding under 1.28 puts us back on the bigger HNS on euro weekly which has taken about 3 yrs to complete and on which the Neck has been broken earlier and calls for a move to 1.20-22 on tgt......
Anyways, staying to the current mkt price action, as of now inv HNS scenario is preferred unless until DX roars back up...
Patience is virtue. The sooner we learn this all, sooner we can start walking to the bank. Good Luck to all of us
The trick is to wait the price meet ur limits, instead of one jumping in.. however scalps is a totally different scenario and is not everyone's cup of tea
Disclaimer: I'm not at all suggesting trades when by either posting the graphs, or my entries. You can view it, but in the end you have to use your own logic and approach, as there is no certainty about this uncertain market...
Sorry to barge in and I don't particularly understand your outlook. But from a technical perspective, euro on 4H is making a down sloping wedge with 3 pushes, which is almost a sure sign of reversal, there is also a wedge with 3-push on 1H from Tuesday to Wednesday, on 1H timeframe, you can see yesterday's high took out a pivot high of the day before, so in Dow Theory terms, that's a warning for trend reversal. Then this morning it retraced down to a perfect 61.8% with clearly bullish sign candles even on 1H timeframe before the bust up. The retracement low is also a retest of the 4H trendline that it broke up yesterday. It's current high stalled at 161.8% extension of the range. I don't know where you shorted from, but from Wednesday onward, the downside momentum has been clearly slowing and price was very reluctant to go down. I would not have gone short from Wednesday onward.
Even though one's long term fundamental outlook is right, I think prices are due for at least technical correction from time to time. Nothing goes in a straight line. Then I guess it's a matter of one's capitalisation and risk appetite for draw down, one's trading timeframe etc. that would determine if it hurts and how much hurt one can take.
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Originally Posted by Robert Eckert
