Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

I have 2 scenarios for the euro:
1) If it proves to be a H&S pattern, we have the neckline who coincide with 1.3070 level and you know the rest
2) If the big resistance line (from 1.3485 through 1.3290 and extended in the current area where intersect 1.3100 which is also a fibo line) will provide a good support, then I expect a rebound to next fibo line in 1.3230

Here's a 2H chart to see what I talk about and in both scenarios I see a move towards 1.3230

Originally Posted by melbgirl

Isn't it great, how admirably clueless the market is now? LOL

With the Euro we should finally establish if it's a risk currency, a carry trade funding currency or a reserve currency because as long as it's all three, we're stuck in this lovely long term range.

Concisely put. As a trade funding currency it has a need to come down several cents. But some investors bought boatloads on Friday: were they buying to play (in which it will all retrace as they unwind), or buying to hold? A large-scale shift from USD to euro as reserve currency could hold euro up at levels too high for the good of their economic recovery. ZEW "sentiment" figures, unlike the U-Mich sentiment in the US, continued upward, but while Germany actually crossed into positive territory, the Zone as a whole "improved" very little to -48 point something; south Europe is going to continue to limp until the euro depreciates, but Germans are tired of paying for south Europe and loath to let the ECB force the euro down if the markets won't do it naturally.

This is what I believe will play. This may change, of course. We never know.

EUR/USD March 19 - 2012


EUR/USD is correcting part of Friday’s rally and I expect this correction to finish in the 1.3130 area as we have a decent low at 1.3115.

Yet I am flexible and would not be surprised if we trade to 1.31 where we find strong support. I am bullish as long as we trade above 1.3070 expecting price to reach 1.3230 (R1) and 1.3275 (R2). The R1 and R2 are levels from the pivot point indicator in the .


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EUR/USD 30 min chart


Market Strategist | DailyFX Forums (London)
azambrano@fxcm.com

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Currency:EUR/USD
Trend Expected Direction: Down within a falling channel.
Method: Ichimoku Kinko Hyo and Candle Sticks.
Description: Looking at EUR/USD from different type of analysis (Ichimoku Kinko Hyo) and Candle Sticks, A Bearish Engulfing crossed kijun sen (Red) just above Kumo (Cloud) which indicate a turn in trend from Bullish to Bearish with a dead cross Tenkan below Kijun (Blue below Red). We can notice also that Kijun went into a flat shape which indicate a solid resistance level that matches the resistance in November 28, 2011 (Blue arrow). Now what confirm the bearish signal at last is the black Chickou (Black) of the past 26 days crossed and went below actual trend. I do suggest traders to either short and hold the pair with open target or to wait until price bounce to a higher level near 1.32450 or 1.32300 and action the short call. This trade might throughout the week.
Recommendation: Watch the market and short @ 1.32450
Target Area: Open
Stop Lose: 1.3400

Originally Posted by AV1

This is what I believe will play. This may change, of course. We never know.

Maybe we had a truncated 5th of c of 4 that I've missed.

from early this morning been shortin equities and eur/usd
my strategy is simple
the 4 hr candle from asia broke
the 30 min resistive areas at 3171
and the 5 min trendlines added to it.

you see here on chart 3152 is where i shorting too from every lower high
if she breaks down further then will start buying near 3125 3110 areas
but pivot is key today for me
still bullish eur and intend to buy dips from lows later after shorting its guts right clean through.......

I got stopped out on my earlier short from 131.80. No risk no reward as I would have been in the green by 30 pips or so by now and even more earlier looking at the chart :s I just didn't have the guts to loosen my stop while this pair decided which way to go. I have an entry order long and expect Dimake's H&S pattern to play. It is just too slim a margin for me to try and short scalp a few pips back. I'd rather wait for the stronger long play.

Entry Long @131.30 with a "proper" S/L lols.

scalping this as normal
33 pips so far tagged and bagged from this boring 45 pip range

First Day Back to the Pip and Run Trading Room and I scored +39.8 Pips

Hello Traders!

After being away from trading while on vacation, I was able to see things a bit more clearly upon my return. I got long EUR/JPY at 109.36 and grabbed a quick 4 pips. I tried to use a bollinger band 1-minute sell signal to scalp in the opposite direction but was stopped out for a loss of -5.8 pips. I like scalping in the direction of the trend so a better trade would have been to get long when price penetrated the lower band for a ride to the upside. Naomi asked about my thoughts about GBP/USD and I saw that price was breaking out of a tight consolidation and I fired off 4 winning trades riding cable north toward the R1 pivot at 1.5820. I got off the train a little before that fo almost 37 pips total on multiple lots. I tried a long on EURGBP but I closed it for a lost of 13.7 pips.

Join me in the Pip and Run Trading Room at 5:30 ET/9:30 GMT for all the trading fun Monday through Friday!

It is very important for traders to take breaks and periods of rest to remain mentally sharp. Our profession is quite demanding on the mind!

Decisions, decisions!

First chart is the daily showing the regression channel down from the last high, which was anchored (won't move) since the 1.2623 low. Quite clearly, we are still in this downward channel for now. The second regression channel moving up from that low is 'live' and is responding to current price movements. The outer perimeter of the downward channel and midline median of the upward channel intersect at 1.3320, currently.

The second chart shows the all time high/low fibo calcs with the 1.3055 successfully defended thus far. A continued bounce through 1.3221 leads up to 1.3324.

I have the monthly pivot at 1.3257 with weekly R1 just below and weekly R2 at 1.3310.

With the weekly (1.3124) and daily pivot (1.3135) looking unwelcoming at present, even though they might be expected to be the first weekly base camps, I can see a neat move up to the 1.3300-1.3320 area before coming down to fill up some of the bottom of that regression channel on the daily chart nearer 1.2906. Obviouslly, a continued move above that daily outer perimeter, and we have a whole new ball game in play.

Currency:EUR/USD
Trend Expected Direction: Down within a falling channel.
Method: Elliott Waves and Fibonacci Trading.
Description: Just for afternoon update on the pair above, I see the
correction is heading toward 2.618 Fibonacci or 1.32250 price point and
from there we need to keep our eyes open for further correction or to
trigger our short position with open target. I am going to place my
short position just at 1.32250 and watch the next market move. In the
same time, I reduced my Stop Lose to 1.33500. I will keep you posted if
things changed or need to be adjusted.
Recommendation: Trigger short position at 1.32250
Target Area: Open
Stop Lose: 1.33500

Charts from today's edition of the webinar Bulls vs. Bears @ The Trading Room 11:30 GMT Mon - Fri
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had a feeling price would gap up on the dividend news prereleased prior to usa open... then drop
so sold short at 59.880
bee in and out all the way down to share price 58.930

covered 122 pips in scalps and i aint shorting this again untill she hit resistance way higher than now

to give oyu an idea the trade sixw was lees than £1 stake due to the spread and also the speed on the digits price index flow

anyways had some fun chart attached

Originally Posted by Uber FX nUblet7

I got stopped out on my earlier short from 131.80. No risk no reward as I would have been in the green by 30 pips or so by now and even more earlier looking at the chart :s I just didn't have the guts to loosen my stop while this pair decided which way to go. I have an entry order long and expect Dimake's H&S pattern to play. It is just too slim a margin for me to try and short scalp a few pips back. I'd rather wait for the stronger long play.

Entry Long @131.30 with a "proper" S/L lols.

Entry wasn't triggered before the upswing. Missed opportunity, waiting for another.