Currency:EUR/USD
Trend Expected Direction: Down within a falling channel.
Method: Elliott Waves and Fibonacci Trading.
Description: Again with a leading diagonal pattern completed its fifth (e) wave down to 1.32520 followed be a correction Zigzag hits 0.764 Fibonacci level at 1.33400 with extended Zigzag reached 100%. Trend jumped a little higher forming a Tweezer Top Candles as shown in black circle. However, I do believe this cycle is wave (II) or (B) ends and further drop for larger wave (III) or (C) is coming on the way! I am going to short the pair looking for further drop. Good luck on this trade.
Recommendation: Short and Hold
Target Area:Open
Stop Lose: 1.3400
EUR/USD finally ends its correction which started on Tuesday by extending above yesterday's high of 1.3350 during the Asian session. Price is now a bit overbought and will probably need a small correction to 1.3310/25 before expected to head higher and reach 1.34 and possibly 1.3450. This scenario is valid only as long as price trades above 1.3270. As usual the 5 minute time frame can help us to pinpoint a better entry and also if we get a breakout higher without getting the correction lower. Please refer to my trading strategy video - see link below.
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EUR/USD 60 min chart
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Price action has managed to break back above the immediate cloud, and if it manages to stay above for the next 4 hours, not good for the bears, especially on a Friday ....
I have cleaned up a 60 min chart to show you what Clive see's:
Decision time in short!
The orange dotted channel is based on a weekly high low time frame. price bounced this morning off the centre line and fell away thus far.
The red and white Hull MAs represent the 2hr and 4hr time frames and are my trigger indicators. They have not crossed over to the downside yet but thus far are trying everything they can do do so.
The green line is the 12hr and sits clearly below the yellow (daily) and gold (two day). As such the daily has still not made it through the 2day. This can be read two ways - either the daily is on the right side and the 12hr needs to move back on up or the daily is on the wrong side and needs to slip on through the two day. The two day is the centre track of my MA envelope, not shown here, and thus how the other roll around it are key for me.
Either way, the 2hr/4hr is trying hard to do something and for the moment that is fall. How far it falls will determine what happens next. Hence decision time. Price is not looking like it is ready to take it on to the upside at present but whatever comes is the reality, so I deal with that not what I think is going to happen.
I will be very happy with my lot today if we get down to the daily pivot as this will hopefully clarify what the 2hr/4hr has in mind. If it crosses back up after consolidating around the pivot, then maybe next week we see up with the 12hr getting back over the daily and two day. But for now, with that weekly channel rejection at the centreline, I am looking for a strike down hard to give me a great end to the month, but as ever, will take what I am given and no more.
I have cleaned up a 60 min chart to show you what Clive see's:
Decision time in short!
The orange dotted channel is based on a weekly high low time frame. price bounced this morning off the centre line and fell away thus far.
The red and white Hull MAs represent the 2hr and 4hr time frames and are my trigger indicators. They have not crossed over to the downside yet but thus far are trying everything they can do do so.
The green line is the 12hr and sits clearly below the yellow (daily) and gold (two day). As such the daily has still not made it through the 2day. This can be read two ways - either the daily is on the right side and the 12hr needs to move back on up or the daily is on the wrong side and needs to slip on through the two day. The two day is the centre track of my MA envelope, not shown here, and thus how the other roll around it are key for me.
Either way, the 2hr/4hr is trying hard to do something and for the moment that is fall. How far it falls will determine what happens next. Hence decision time. Price is not looking like it is ready to take it on to the upside at present but whatever comes is the reality, so I deal with that not what I think is going to happen.
I will be very happy with my lot today if we get down to the daily pivot as this will hopefully clarify what the 2hr/4hr has in mind. If it crosses back up after consolidating around the pivot, then maybe next week we see up with the 12hr getting back over the daily and two day. But for now, with that weekly channel rejection at the centreline, I am looking for a strike down hard to give me a great end to the month, but as ever, will take what I am given and no more.
Clivewaverider I have found that when the red hull cross on white there is a direct response to the price. Even if the intersection is unsuccessful, there is a variation in at least 10 pips.
Clivewaverider I have found that when the red hull cross on white there is a direct response to the price. Even if the intersection is unsuccessful, there is a variation in at least 10 pips.
When the square roots (Hull's) are in tune, price is incredibly tied to them on a 10 setting - hence why I use them across multilple time frames. I played around with using bands of price high's and lows rather than closing price but find the latter good enough. Price tends to roll under the 2 hour, then jump down to the top of the 4 hr, then roll under the 4 hour, etc etc. If price lurches around rather than tickling the Hull's, that is when I tend to get that gut feeeling that something is changing! they are not good enough on their own, but combined with the ichimochu clouds, EW and MyW, regression, macd, patterns, etc I do think they at least help. The voice in my ear if you like.
I dont know how many people picked up on Paul Chin's 'cloud' methodology. Looks really good to me Paul. Dont know how to program that on my software but I will. Any help would be gratefully recieved.
When the square roots (Hull's) are in tune, price is incredibly tied to them on a 10 setting - hence why I use them across multilple time frames. I played around with using bands of price high's and lows rather than closing price but find the latter good enough. Price tends to roll under the 2 hour, then jump down to the top of the 4 hr, then roll under the 4 hour, etc etc. If price lurches around rather than tickling the Hull's, that is when I tend to get that gut feeeling that something is changing! they are not good enough on their own, but combined with the ichimochu clouds, EW and MyW, regression, macd, patterns, etc I do think they at least help. The voice in my ear if you like.
I dont know how many people picked up on Paul Chin's 'cloud' methodology. Looks really good to me Paul. Dont know how to program that on my software but I will. Any help would be gratefully recieved.
Thank you~
I do not know how you did it, but seems like our conclusions are mostly similiar, so as long as it's making money, the methodology is secondary, and acts more of a confirmation of a view
I mainly use only 3 indicators -
1. Trendy I've shown how to trade it and the formulas to it - but just that I programme it for personal use, so you'll need to find your resources to program it for you. It's not a tool for trading in itself, it's a tool to determine where we are in terms of price, to know when not to buy at the high.
2. Vibes - Is my EA, that I don't trade manually against, since it's profitable on a monthly basis with minimal intervention, why change it?
3. Psycho - I use it to spot exact entries and exits. Nothing will be discussed for this.
While I cannot help you with the coding, I can tell you the logic of most of it when you encounter difficulties.
Happy trading! (I hope you are still holding your position...)
A beautiful mind is much more important than a fat pocket.
I do not know how you did it, but seems like our conclusions are mostly similiar, so as long as it's making money, the methodology is secondary, and acts more of a confirmation of a view
I mainly use only 3 indicators -
1. Trendy I've shown how to trade it and the formulas to it - but just that I programme it for personal use, so you'll need to find your resources to program it for you. It's not a tool for trading in itself, it's a tool to determine where we are in terms of price, to know when not to buy at the high.
2. Vibes - Is my EA, that I don't trade manually against, since it's profitable on a monthly basis with minimal intervention, why change it?
3. Psycho - I use it to spot exact entries and exits. Nothing will be discussed for this.
While I cannot help you with the coding, I can tell you the logic of most of it when you encounter difficulties.
Happy trading! (I hope you are still holding your position...)
Thanks Paul - yep holding position. I am not nervous on the short side, only the long. When I reversed yesterday, I was falling asleep watching that perimeter and closed out throough impatience. I cussed a lot this moring as that was a good move up and I nailed it at the turn but human frailties clipped my wings. Good news is that tyese days the frailities are reducing my winnings, not causing me losses, so more of that and I'll be happy.
Your cloud methodology is very similar to my Hull. The trigger Hull is 50% of the underlying Hull - so 2hr over 4hr; 12hr over 24, 1 day over 2 day. I got this from JD Hurst's work on his waves. I could not stand the lag in his calcs but by using small price bars (10mins) on higher time frame Hull's, I got the 'tightness' I needed to see what was happening around pivots and the like. The biggest issue I have with using thse Hull's is software based rather than the calcs. I want to turn them into 'clouds' or bands but can not with my software. Something to program in time.
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Originally Posted by Paul Chin 
