Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

The EUR/USD has been flashing lower highs since the all-time record high (1.6035) was reached in July 2008, and subsequently on November 2009 (1.5140) and May 2011 1.4940), respectively. Taking this long-term view in perspective, I would look to sell any rallies towards 1.4900-50 (May 2011 high), and the more recent top at 1.4250 (October 2011).

Furthermore, the EUR/USD has been caught in a consolidation, triangle pattern since July 2008, which corresponds to the trend line connecting the all-time low in October 2000 (0.8225) and May 2010 (1.1875). One can expect the prices to be contained in the confines of this triangle until a real break-out, with momentum, takes place vis-a-vis further quantitative easing by the FED, or the ongoing sovereign debt crisis in the European Union. Of course, both will come into play, but I believe that the prospect of the dissolution of the Euro-zone, due to the continuous issues involving austerity and budget measures, will be too much to resolve, and lead to a break-out to the downside.

With the flight-to-safety theme coming to play in the near future, price levels of interest to me are: 1.3600 (200-day MA), 1.3800 (trend line connecting May 2011 and August 2011 highs). These are great levels to sell rallies, and any price action above these two levels threatens 1.4200. I do believe prices will continue to correct higher in the short-term towards 1.3600-3800, with rumors of further easing by the FED hitting the wires, but the sovereign debt crisis in Europe is too hard to overcome. Parity is not too hard to imagine in the future, but overtaking the 1.1900 level is very appealing this year.

This is my opinion only, and should not be taken as investment or trading recommendations. Thanks!

First edition of 'What Clive Sees' regarding the EURUSD. It does not have the MyWave or EW counts in for now, but I think there is enough as a weekly reference document. All the usual warnings over using this in anyway for your own trading.

I have created this to provide a systematic big picture to near term picture assesment that I can tweak and improve as time goes by, as well as update each week. I use a number of charts and approaches to give credence to my short term trading and even I get confused by what I am seeing/thinking - paralysis by analysis if you will.

If it is any use to you then great. If not, it is of great use to me!

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1...sordoN-WA/edit

I begin my analysis on the daily chart A from X (Nov. 05) where the price was rising to the peak A(July 08). Then we complete the AB (Oct. 08).Follow the BC (Nov. 09) and ended in D (June 10). We clear see the creation of two patterns.
A) ABCD pattern where AB is approximately equal to the CD, with a C retracement 0.76 of AB and D expansion to 1.13 of AB .
B) Pattern Gartley "222", starting from X, followed by the ABCD and D retracement 0.96 of XA.

The creation of these patterns was a sign of a possible trend reversal (upward) by placing a buy order in D and an exit to 0.618 and 0.786 AD retracement. As the chart shows the retracement touched 0.73 of AD , meaning that the power of the sellers were not enough to stop the up trend reversal at lower levels, below 0.618. This I think is a strong trend reversal sign to the rise and I expect to confirm the continuity in the future ...
Attachment 121036
Continuing the analysis on the daily chart B I start from the A (previous D Jun. 10 ) on the top B (0.73 retracement of AD previous diagram) and ends at the C (0,76 retracement of AB), which in my opinion is completed. Then waiting for the D…
Attachment 121037
On the daily chart C we find that C low is higher than the previous two lows B and D. Another strong sign confirming the trend reversal and continuation of an uptrend.
Attachment 121038
On the daily chart D I present my thought for the completion of the CD to 1.13/1.272 AB expansion .
Attachment 121039

Continuing my analysis on the 30min chart E from X (29 Nov) where the price downtrend to the A(15 Mar). Then we complete the AB (21 Mar). Follow the BC (22 Mar) and ended in D (27 Mar.). We clear see again the creation of two patterns.
A) ABCD pattern where AB is approximately equal to the CD, with a C retracement 0.55 of AB and D expansion to 1.35 of AB .
B) Pattern Gartley "222", starting from X, followed by the ABCD and D retracement 0.78 of XA.
In this case the creation of these 2 patterns were a sign of a possible trend reversal (downtrend) by placing sell order in D and exit to 0.618 and 0.786 AD retracement. While we waited to hit these price levels, the price was not even able to touch 0.382 but only 0.35, just above in lateral line of the uptrend that started from A! The power of buyers was far superior to that of sellers, resulting in termination in 3 and the failure of a potential trend reversal to downtrend.
Attachment 121040
In the next 30 minute chart F we see the area of D up to Friday close. The ABCD pattern gives a sign to place buy order in D and exit to 0.618/0.786. The retracement exceeded 100% ...
Attachment 121041

Conclusion. Repeated trend reversals failures to downtrend.
All this is nothing more than my personal thoughts.

Here is what i'm doing this week.

Still holding long and currently looking at 3290/3300 for buying/support/stop and then 1.3230 area for re-buying/support if the pull back from fridays highs is not complete. there is possibility the pair breaks out at the open this week/month, starting the rally towards the 200 DMA.. Below 1.3230 the agressive bullish outlook fades. While above these levels im targeting the 200dma and FE in that area.

EURNZD holds interest here with a possible corrective move setting on it for a hefty pip moves of 7-800 pips on it.. 6050-55 comes in as an excellent supp but would be incline to see 6185-90 to hold for a break higher.. 6500 is prime resis on this pair..

NZDUSD on the other hand seems to be topping and a corrective drop is on the card... 8000 is expected soft tgt where a break under to it and 7700 move to unfold..

Nevertheless the interest is on EURNZD for it seems to be a nice trade setup..

GL..

We've a lower high and lower low formed on Friday. The break downwards last Friday is a disappointment, but I expect Monday to follow through to test or even break 1.325.

Fundamentally speaking, there's something called "window dressing" that explained the strong support on Friday at current level. In any case, we are still within the upper range betwen 1.30+ to 1.34+, so any longs will be considered "Risky".

I trade on a daily basis, based on "prediction" of what to expect of the coming days/week. Not what EUR/USD will be one to two years time.



Not as lucky as Clive, my short is still not close yet, probably a Monday gap down will close it nicely

Good luck, as always!

Originally Posted by Paul Chin

We've a lower high and lower low formed on Friday. The break downwards last Friday is a disappointment, but I expect Monday to follow through to test or even break 1.325.

Fundamentally speaking, there's something called "window dressing" that explained the strong support on Friday at current level. In any case, we are still within the upper range betwen 1.30+ to 1.34+, so any longs will be considered "Risky".

I trade on a daily basis, based on "prediction" of what to expect of the coming days/week. Not what EUR/USD will be one to two years time.



Not as lucky as Clive, my short is still not close yet, probably a Monday gap down will close it nicely

Good luck, as always!

My friend Paul Chin Looking at this diagram what makes you think that I trade in on one or two years basis? Who in this forum talked about a price action in one or two years time?
Attachment 121062

Originally Posted by Spyros

My friend Paul Chin Looking at this diagram what makes you think that I trade in on one or two years basis? Who in this forum talked about a price action in one or two years time?
Attachment 121062

I can't tell whether you think it's going down or up next week, but I can tell from your multiple charts you're hinting more upside to come, based on longer term analysis, yes?

Monthly chart are bearish but weekly chart is bullish. Once the weekly reaches strong resistance and fails, it will change to bearish and realign with the monthly chart.

In the short term, the break above the previous high helps the bullish case. Dips will get bought until the hourly gets very overbought which will then require a down cycle to reset the technicals.

Originally Posted by Paul Chin

We've a lower high and lower low formed on Friday. The break downwards last Friday is a disappointment, but I expect Monday to follow through to test or even break 1.325.

Fundamentally speaking, there's something called "window dressing" that explained the strong support on Friday at current level. In any case, we are still within the upper range betwen 1.30+ to 1.34+, so any longs will be considered "Risky".

I trade on a daily basis, based on "prediction" of what to expect of the coming days/week. Not what EUR/USD will be one to two years time.



Not as lucky as Clive, my short is still not close yet, probably a Monday gap down will close it nicely

Good luck, as always!

Your time frame is different that's all. Bigger picture last 3 weeks and 3 months, the short trade is broken .

Originally Posted by rcopadilla

Monthly chart are bearish but weekly chart is bullish. Once the weekly reaches strong resistance and fails, it will change to bearish and realign with the monthly chart.

In the short term, the break above the previous high helps the bullish case. Dips will get bought until the hourly gets very overbought which will then require a down cycle to reset the technicals.

I don't know which monthly chart you are going with, but this is a monthly chart and you can see a bounce and a higher lows rt after the supp coming into play at 2623... Plus a decent looking inv HNS and the neck don't come into play till around 1.47 min...

Anyways we will see how it goes at current lvls and I'm not looking that far off as it could be months to yrs even if it is infact this way... As of now on monthly chart 3340 holds imp and a break higher and esp above 3600, technically speaking ( I pay no attention to fundies or noises ) euro could be lifted off easily to 1.38 and beyond perhaps..
but once again, i rather stick to listening to 4 and 8 hrs time frame than monthly...

GL...

Daily

hey guys anyone want a cup of coffee. I am about to buy a 7 dollar cup of coffee and at that price you know where it coming from.... we need a COF/USD pair. Thanks Greg I have a new way of looking at the world. lol

Have anyone notice that TL from weekly chart (the blue one)