Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

close enough for gov't work.

The Daily S2 level is around 1.3029. There is some lower Bollinger bands in that area in the various timeframes so that should be a reasonable target. The Daily lower Boll20 is around 1.30124 and dropping. Maybe the price action could extend there before the inevitable bounce happens???

I know that if it is not on this front page, it is probably resigned to history here, but a double extended impulsive EW will have a combination of 13 waves. I just count the 'MyWave's' instead of trying to explain them as one thing or another - a wave is just a wave. When this little tug down is complete, I can now count 13!!!!!! Can't promise anyone they are the final 13 but 13 nevertheless.

Originally Posted by rcopadilla

close enough for gov't work.

The Daily S2 level is around 1.3029. There is some lower Bollinger bands in that area in the various timeframes so that should be a reasonable target. The Daily lower Boll20 is around 1.30124 and dropping. Maybe the price action could extend there before the inevitable bounce happens???

We love S2, indeed
However, given the drop in last two days, we may not get to S2 and instead we'll see a new low just below London low and a bounce up with holiday trading for the rest of the day.

Originally Posted by Alejandro Zambrano

Ok, so how do you explain this good performance? The Flips in the histogram matches the price direction.

GBP/USD


How do we interpret the SSI? Watch an FXCM Expo Presentation that explains the SSI.


This is my favorite - traders had been going long the USD/JPY for years - yet as soon as we get a reversal and price starts trading higher people close their long positions and net longs are at historically low levels - If we drop lower it wold not surprise me if net long exceeds its current levels.

The same is happening with the EUR/CHF - about 34 against 1 are long. When and if we get bullish trend traders will sell very quickly and start to fade the move.

USD/JPY

Mr Alexandro, that's a very good presentation. Thank you!

I've drawn eclipses on your GBP/USD chart to highlight areas where SSI is wrong, sorry about that. Please see (you may have to zoom in to see):




You may also notice that when price has reversed (somewhere between Aug and Sep), the SSI is still net short. The SSI works on basic human psychology premise that we are quick to take profit and slow to take a loss. When price is dropping, the SSI will flip to the upside, because most of those shorting will be out quick, while those long will still be holding, "hoping" for the miracle to happen.

Now we come to the USDJPY pair. The focus is not the USD but the JPY in this case. The Japanese are the most persevering people - either because of their harsh living condition, or because of their upbringings. Good and bad. Those that are long and wrong, will continue to hold on to it, hoping for miracles to happen. I'm talking about years of waiting and borrowing ...Sorry about the racist comment, so I've heard. So I'm not sure how long is needed to wait for a flip for JPY pairs, though I'm not involved at all with any SSI and do not have any statistics to offer, except based on what was shown.

Which is why I say SSI is a lagging trend indicator, not that it's useless, just... lagging. We can always argue to clarify on points!

Good luck! As always!

Thank you Paul. That was very interesting, and informative.

Good Morning Traders! Another full moon is in the sky and the currency pairs are more volatile than usual! Coincidence? Maybe.

I would like to short the Euro as I slept through most of the good runs. However, some 5-minute chart MACD divergence may point to a retrace for a better place to sell from these levels.

The knife down may be a little to sharp to catch for a move up to Fibonacci resistance.

13038 could give away for a test of the 1.300 level. However, a double bottom there could see those Fibonacci levels come in to focus.

Happy trading and happy holidays!

Originally Posted by banison

We love S2, indeed
However, given the drop in last two days, we may not get to S2 and instead we'll see a new low just below London low and a bounce up with holiday trading for the rest of the day.

Too many charts have lower bands at the S2 area waiting to get tagged. This greatly increases the odds of S2 being tagged since the vast majority of times, the price reaches the targeted band.

I think the Change in SSI is more important that the actual number. SSI is also getting more shaky as this range trading drags on . I do look at SSI and Oanda, and have seen times where they are dead on and dead off. Ill never forget about 4-5 years ago ( was it that long? ) SSI was net long EURUSD across the board and the euro just kept chugging higher and higher. It eventually fell but you get the idea.

Originally Posted by Paul Chin

Mr Alexandro, that's a very good presentation. Thank you!

I've drawn eclipses on your GBP/USD chart to highlight areas where SSI is wrong, sorry about that. Please see (you may have to zoom in to see):




You may also notice that when price has reversed (somewhere between Aug and Sep), the SSI is still net short. The SSI works on basic human psychology premise that we are quick to take profit and slow to take a loss. When price is dropping, the SSI will flip to the upside, because most of those shorting will be out quick, while those long will still be holding, "hoping" for the miracle to happen.

Now we come to the USDJPY pair. The focus is not the USD but the JPY in this case. The Japanese are the most persevering people - either because of their harsh living condition, or because of their upbringings. Good and bad. Those that are long and wrong, will continue to hold on to it, hoping for miracles to happen. I'm talking about years of waiting and borrowing ...Sorry about the racist comment, so I've heard. So I'm not sure how long is needed to wait for a flip for JPY pairs, though I'm not involved at all with any SSI and do not have any statistics to offer, except based on what was shown.

Which is why I say SSI is a lagging trend indicator, not that it's useless, just... lagging. We can always argue to clarify on points!

Good luck! As always!

in other news, since i have been sidelined on the EUR for now, looking for clues to short for trend or buy for range rally....

I took a big long position in CADJPY today with stops already at break even. This is a risk on play fading this dollar rally that avoids the EUR.

Looking for a brake out in CAD against the dollar. I normally view USDCAD as a big leading indicator for the usdollar. Don't be surprised if we get a big dollar fall tomorrow/nextweek and a USDCAD drop/fail today being a leading indicator. While the USDCAD has not broken down yet, there is just too many failures to the upside. I don't favor shorting the USDCAD for RISK ON, i would rather buy the AUDJPY. Since the AUDCAD has broken important support, there might be an opportunity here to play the next risk on leg long the CADJPY. Should that coin side with a breakdown of the USDCAD, then the CADJPY would move up very aggressively.

This post will self destruct if USDCAD closes above 1.0 on the daily

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Good Morning Traders! Another full moon is in the sky and the currency pairs are more volatile than usual! Coincidence? Maybe.

I would like to short the Euro as I slept through most of the good runs. However, some 5-minute chart MACD divergence may point to a retrace for a better place to sell from these levels.

Thanks Gregory good tip , pick up 15 pip from that . I was sleeping a little. Lol
The knife down may be a little to sharp to catch for a move up to Fibonacci resistance.

13038 could give away for a test of the 1.300 level. However, a double bottom there could see those Fibonacci levels come in to focus.

Happy trading and happy holidays!

Thanks for the tip Gregory , picked up 15 pip from that . I must have been sleeping . Lol

Look out for this:

the low you said HERE http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/eur-u...ml#post1103846

GOOD CALL! literally may have tagged the bottom to the pip. what happens from here, who knows but we have some pause.

Originally Posted by Franosh

Look out for this:

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Good Morning Traders! Another full moon is in the sky and the currency pairs are more volatile than usual! Coincidence? Maybe.

I would like to short the Euro as I slept through most of the good runs. However, some 5-minute chart MACD divergence may point to a retrace for a better place to sell from these levels.

The knife down may be a little to sharp to catch for a move up to Fibonacci resistance.

13038 could give away for a test of the 1.300 level. However, a double bottom there could see those Fibonacci levels come in to focus.

Happy trading and happy holidays!

I am waiting for this damn retracement from yesterday

Originally Posted by Paul Chin

Mr Alexandro, that's a very good presentation. Thank you!

I've drawn eclipses on your GBP/USD chart to highlight areas where SSI is wrong, sorry about that. Please see (you may have to zoom in to see):




You may also notice that when price has reversed (somewhere between Aug and Sep), the SSI is still net short. The SSI works on basic human psychology premise that we are quick to take profit and slow to take a loss. When price is dropping, the SSI will flip to the upside, because most of those shorting will be out quick, while those long will still be holding, "hoping" for the miracle to happen.

Now we come to the USDJPY pair. The focus is not the USD but the JPY in this case. The Japanese are the most persevering people - either because of their harsh living condition, or because of their upbringings. Good and bad. Those that are long and wrong, will continue to hold on to it, hoping for miracles to happen. I'm talking about years of waiting and borrowing ...Sorry about the racist comment, so I've heard. So I'm not sure how long is needed to wait for a flip for JPY pairs, though I'm not involved at all with any SSI and do not have any statistics to offer, except based on what was shown.

Which is why I say SSI is a lagging trend indicator, not that it's useless, just... lagging. We can always argue to clarify on points!

Good luck! As always!

Hi Paul
Your are ignoring the fact that very time its wrong its losses very small amounts but when its right it delivers about 400-600 pips in return. We can clearly see this in the charts

This indicator is however not the holy grail even though its a market makers main tool and its a fact that many market makers brokers are very wealthy. I would suggest to use this indicator with other TA or FA tools.

Short term traders can however ignore it - because as we can see in the charts the indicator does not change bias on swings of 100-200 pips. Yet if you are looking to predict what is going to happen in the next 2-3 day's then its very good.

When it comes down to sideways markets then DailyFX clearly says that it should not be used.

Happy trading guys

Originally Posted by Spyros

I am waiting for this damn retracement from yesterday

It looks like we would need to wait until tomorrows NFP. Are you going to be trading or taking the day off?