Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

Originally Posted by Clivewaverider

Whose mine?

No stryker's.

The daily chart projects a potential target around 1.3400. If that happens, any downside action should be treated as retracements. Projections from the daily chart takes days to play out and things can change during that much time. But for now, that's gonna be my general gameplan.

Originally Posted by stryker

I hope I'm seeing this rt on SPX...
EURO - Spotting a descending wedge and 3155-60 is resis top... on a pattern play it is a bullish setup but not till above 3170 will be cautious as stocks seems to be on the lower side..
Now I wish it was that simple.. EU 4 hrs have an indication of a RS been setup and a 3075-80 as a possible neck for a move lower..
Well then have 2 hrs comes in singing the blues where a touch into 3075-80 and a bounce above the jazzy blues would negate the 4 hr HNS view and be back to the 8 hrs descending wedge view..
lol....... I know sounds crazy but been a techie gotta show what I see and perceive it rather biasing it out..
throwing in EU 30 mins, just to show how rejection is dealt with in this mkt.. I don't want to say it loud, but mkt don't like rejection.. Kinda it's a b***h...............
On the other side last nite i lost my entire set of saved charts.. All 200 of em...
gotta redo them from scratch and that's a ................ well............ u know what ...

GL...
GL..

My heart goes out to you Stryker - I spent most of last week (whilst on holidays) trying to recover all my charts on one of my two systems and finally had to give up and start again yesterday. Interestingly, this exercise has taken me off in a slightly different direction, having to think about building the charts again and questioning why certain items were on there. Not evry cloud has a silver lining but I hope there is some glimmer somewhere for you.

STOCHASTIC & RSI DIVERGENCE

Originally Posted by rcopadilla

No stryker's.

The daily chart projects a potential target around 1.3400. If that happens, any downside action should be treated as retracements. Projections from the daily chart takes days to play out and things can change during that much time. But for now, that's gonna be my general gameplan.

I have posted this chart a few times now but I have overlaid two sets of MA bands, both based on a 4 weekly (monthly) time scale on a daily time bar chart. Both are 5 periods over 20, whihc extrapolates my MACD settings (5/20/20). The MACD is on an exponential basis. The filled in MA band is on an Attenuation basis and the unfilled in band in on a Predictive basis (ensign setting).

I have been following this with interest as the Attenuation band has been signalling down hill for a while but both the MACD and predictive MA's have been pushing uphill, causing the stand off. Given the placement of the MACD at present, I am in no mood for shorting it unless I get 9-13 MyWaves intraday on up moves and vice vercer. This has kept me safe thus far, notwithstanding the forum's protestations at my 'investments'!

Of more interest are the potential resistance lines above drawn off prior highs - lots of room up there.

I can hardly sleep at night, drawing patterns in my head - I just wish this pair would fulfil my expectations!!!

the spike up and retracements of the current action. Long entries are best made when the price is at the lower bands and the CCI has cross over its signal line while in oversold condition.

Originally Posted by Clivewaverider

I have posted this chart a few times now but I have overlaid two sets of MA bands, both based on a 4 weekly (monthly) time scale on a daily time bar chart. Both are 5 periods over 20, whihc extrapolates my MACD settings (5/20/20). The MACD is on an exponential basis. The filled in MA band is on an Attenuation basis and the unfilled in band in on a Predictive basis (ensign setting).

I have been following this with interest as the Attenuation band has been signalling down hill for a while but both the MACD and predictive MA's have been pushing uphill, causing the stand off. Given the placement of the MACD at present, I am in no mood for shorting it unless I get 9-13 MyWaves intraday on up moves and vice vercer. This has kept me safe thus far, notwithstanding the forum's protestations at my 'investments'!

Of more interest are the potential resistance lines above drawn off prior highs - lots of room up there.

I can hardly sleep at night, drawing patterns in my head - I just wish this pair would fulfil my expectations!!!

Sleep??? What is that!!??

I am not familiar with your methodology and will be checking out your previous postings to help educate myself. In the meantime, please continue with the explanations.

Very Interesting Clive not many people Know about sync-ing their MacD with their use of MA. By doing so it does give some predictability. You will find that the Ichi can be used in this way also.

side Note.

On smaller TFs the pair is currently rejection a move higer and has fallen into lower teir down cycle this could get pretty ugly if it continues.

Originally Posted by rcopadilla

Your numbers are confusing.

lol............ honest typo error... a break higher clean above 3170 will take the price into around 3133-38... suppose to be 3233-38..

GL..

Originally Posted by Fx(MIA)

Very Interesting Clive not many people Know about sync-ing their MacD with their use of MA. By doing so it does give some predictability. You will find that the Ichi can be used in this way also.

side Note.

On smaller TFs the pair is currently rejection a move higer and has fallen into lower teir down cycle this could get pretty ugly if it continues.

I use Ichi too on 2day and 8hr time frames - just received Manesh patel's book.

I am a little wary of the price action too - I only got 4 waves up at moment though on 10 min chart and they have overlapped and taken out yesterday's high. Expecting a little more upside to create a non overlapping(ish) wave and I'll be out. I have got shorts on too, so just a matter of banking spike when comes, if it comes.

Originally Posted by rcopadilla

Sleep??? What is that!!??

lol.......... oh boy............ I remember those days............... when u won't get time to sleep and every now and then u be taking a power-nap of sorta............ Now I can sleep 7 hrs an avg and few power naps in b.w............ Not to mention can leave an open trade and not been bother with it.........................
Gotta sleep........ a fresh mind is a better mind........... make ur analysis.. place ur stops (one) and multiple entries point and relax and let the trade to mature and meet tgts..
EU 2 hrs and extended above 3160 hitting and looking a retrace to 3120................... gotta keep it simple...... now breaks 3115-20 suggesting short side a bounce indicating we have buyers lurking for a bargain price to get in....
Worse case scenario............... ur multiple exit entries helps u milk some pips......... and offcourse adjust s.l when in gains............. ALWAYS.....

GL..

GL..

Longs off, shorts on unless top here breaks: orange weekly channel perimeter touch and a MyWave6 on 240 min chart suggests potential 7,8,9..... to downside more likely opportunity at this stage. Need MACD's to confirm but taking the punt now for a 1/3 of bet.

I see just what you see, on the 5 min and higher TFs I think what is going on is everyone else sees it to and are trading it forcing the Pair lower.

There will be a move higher I think but TIMING is the KEY

Hello dear traders,

Big picture this could be one possibility if it decides to go up, since yesterday bounce from 1.2993 looks like it is in five waves. Right now seems like it wants to go down to build momentum.

AV1

Originally Posted by Fx(MIA)

I see just what you see, on the 5 min and higher TFs I think what is going on is everyone else sees it to and are trading it forcing the Pair lower.

There will be a move higher I think but TIMING is the KEY

With that 3 waves up, could this be an expanded flat retracement with the recent up being 'b'? Would make sense from a 'its up, its down, no it really is up'' Great fun. Going to follow the lower high's down and see if we get a break up - it would be a big thrust me thinks!

Originally Posted by Robert Eckert

There was an interesting video on Bloomberg (which unfortunately I can't find again now) about why LTRO actually does not have the effect of QE. In the LTRO program, ECB gave fistfuls of euros to the major banks-- but then forbade them to invest it in anything risky, which basically meant not investing in anything in Europe (they've even been made to offload some of the investments they already had) so pretty much all the LTRO money has ended up parked back in accounts in the ECB, none of it entering the economy (or helping to push the euro down). It is more analogous in the USA to the TARP money which was handed to the banks, which then wouldn't lend any of it, so it had no stimulative effect at all; the analogy in Europe of the Fed's QE (purchase of Treasury paper to create more dollars) would be the Sovereign Purchase program which Spain keeps pressing the ECB to expand (buying up a lot of euro-denominated bonds would force a lot of overseas bondholders to start parking their money elsewhere, hence selling off euros). It remains uncertain whether ECB is ever going to do that (any other central bank would have acted to depreciate the overvalued currency a long time ago, but ECB is not behaving that way: Europe is still generating a couple percent of domestic inflation even with the euro the way it is, not threats of deflation like in Japan, and inflation fears still seem to be a major motivator).

Hello Robert,
In the following report from Bloomberg/Business Week, Spanish banks borrowed $300 million from the ECB and loaded up on Spanish debt (very risky)
Spain Sells More Bills Than Planned - Businessweek

I believe that the ECB can't bailout nations directly, but they can bail out/"back stop" the banks.
ECB Help
Demand for the 12-month bills was 2.9 times the amount sold, compared with 2.14 times last month. Demand for the longer maturity notes rose to 3.77 times from 2.93.

Demand for Spanish debt has been underpinned by the European Central Bank’s emergency three-year lending to banks at tenders in December and February. Spanish banks’ average net borrowings from the ECB surged almost 50 percent in March to 227.6 billion euros, central bank data showed last week, and data from the Treasury shows Spanish lenders piled up on the nation’s debt in the three months through February.