The headfake before the real move pattern. Support broke but only temporarily as that signaled the start of the breakout. The upper bands of H1, H2, and H3 has been hit, followed by a retracement. H4,H6 and H8 have yet to have their upper bands tagged so an expectation of higher highs is reasonable.
My MACD's are holding above each other in bull stack - Daily R2 could be on and I am on it. Banking tranches as I go mind you. This is also in area of weekly R1.
The headfake before the real move pattern. Support broke but only temporarily as that signaled the start of the breakout. The upper bands of H1, H2, and H3 has been hit, followed by a retracement. H4,H6 and H8 have yet to have their upper bands tagged so an expectation of higher highs is reasonable.
The Hourly Bollingers have narrowed, and the price is trading above the upper band, causing the action to be choppy. Price normally trades within the bands so when a rally (or breakdown) ensues, trading outside the bands does not last for more than a few bars as the bands expand rapidly. This has been a slow motion rally, contributing to the choppiness. The hourly bands have not yet expanded, although the 30min and 15min timeframes have expanded their bands. Things don't look right. But a few large blue bars should help normalize the picture.
The Hourly Bollingers have narrowed, and the price is trading above the upper band, causing the action to be choppy. Price normally trades within the bands so when a rally (or breakdown) ensues, trading outside the bands does not last for more than a few bars as the bands expand rapidly. This has been a slow motion rally, contributing to the choppiness. The hourly bands have not yet expanded, although the 30min and 15min timeframes have expanded their bands. Things don't look right. But a few large blue bars should help normalize the picture.
I think EUR/USD needs something to push it. Any important news...
My MACD's are holding above each other in bull stack - Daily R2 could be on and I am on it. Banking tranches as I go mind you. This is also in area of weekly R1.
Let me see if I understand you chart. Your version of Ewave has 11 counts. Count 4 is complete with Count 5 expected to be around the second resistance level of R2.
I am not a waver so I am not familiar with the more intricate details of waving. But normal impulse wave have have a 5 count followed by a 3 count corrective wave. That is a total of 8. Where does the extra 3 counts in your version come from?
Let me see if I understand you chart. Your version of Ewave has 11 counts. Count 4 is complete with Count 5 expected to be around the second resistance level of R2.
I am not a waver so I am not familiar with the more intricate details of waving. But normal impulse wave have have a 5 count followed by a 3 count corrective wave. That is a total of 8. Where does the extra 3 counts in your version come from?
Would using the ZIGZAG indicator help identify the counts?
My MACD's are holding above each other in bull stack - Daily R2 could be on and I am on it. Banking tranches as I go mind you. This is also in area of weekly R1.
You could be right here, as 12H bar I was talking is above 200MA and I am not sure it can go below it.
Banked that spike up and now out until my Stoch mom indicator gets down to bottom of the sub chart. If that happens and the MACD lines are still stacked up then I'll go long again. But too close to claims for me. Only half the day's target done, so still hungry but not greedy - not today.
with dx futures now in clean break this should follow down and eu to continue up
however if DX pops back into wedge and holds then this is sign of dollar index bullish
so as long as dx stays below this wedge on this 2 hrs play then eu should reach R2 levels today
my strategy today again is long off dipps on higher lows on 5 min and 30 min keeping an eyes on 2hrs charts and 4 hr charts also.
with equities and metals also holding i am also scalping longs on london ftse and gold, a bit of french CAC too....
if eu fails and equities falls on earnings then i will simply change to short modes but for now with the earlier inverted head and shoulders as long as price is above and holding i will bunce longs
time to pump up the jam here and tag and bag as many pips as possible before jobs data usa....... just in case ....then once jobs data announced time to play again, and again and again........
Last edited by cw1; 04-19-2012 at 06:08 AM.
Take your profits or the market will take it from you....
Let me see if I understand you chart. Your version of Ewave has 11 counts. Count 4 is complete with Count 5 expected to be around the second resistance level of R2.
I am not a waver so I am not familiar with the more intricate details of waving. But normal impulse wave have have a 5 count followed by a 3 count corrective wave. That is a total of 8. Where does the extra 3 counts in your version come from?
My version has 13 waves being the countable ups and downs of a double extended impulse wave as per Elliot wave Principle or the longest structure in Hopkiss's Harmonic structure. The problem withe xtensions, especially in the 5th wave is that they are not always discernible. My basic driver is that after 4.5 years of trying, I just can not get happy with EWaves per se - that is the intricate labelling and construction of a wave count that may or may not hold. Having counted over and over all the various types of waves across various authors and glimpsed (more work!!) the Delta theory, I am happy that if I can count somewhere between 9 and 11 waves, that maybe I missed 12 and 13 somewhere, and I will not then bet with that trend but look for reversals in ending patterns and trend line breaks. If there is then a 12 and 13, then I'll fade it and 'hope' that i am right. I have been taken to task with this last bit of my approach by various forum members on the basis that hope will break the bank someday. This may indeed be the case but I bank my profits every night (10% of bank is target) and continue to find that a blow out remains illusive.
The counts you see have no form - I am not projecting 5 anywhere - it is just floating around to add to a wave if it gets there. I am also not saying 4 is over. All I do is stick counts on a wave if it looks complete. If I get a biggish looking abc, I might restart the wave count if I had got to say 7 (abc/b//abc) in the previous leg and the regression channel looks as if it could take a second equal leg of 7.
What I can say is that if we keep getting higher lows and we then get to 7, then I start getting squeamish at longs and will look for ending structures and targets to short, especially if 11-13 appear. I miss out on loads but catch enough midtrain to keep my trading debacle alive!
It is all very discretionary and why I use pyrapoint, regression, hull channels, pivots (daily, weekly, monthly) trend lines etc etc etc.
Banked that spike up and now out until my Stoch mom indicator gets down to bottom of the sub chart. If that happens and the MACD lines are still stacked up then I'll go long again. But too close to claims for me. Only half the day's target done, so still hungry but not greedy - not today.
Close enough to Daily pivot for a low risk long here (1.3115) and will top up above today's high. All small stuff today and markets moving quickly. No more from me today until I close out.
there is no change on long term bearish channel 1.3050 is very important fib. level...daily close below this level we could see a new downward momentum to the 1.28s even 1.26s...
there is no change on long term bearish channel 1.3050 is very important fib. level...daily close below this level we could see a new downward momentum to the 1.28s even 1.26s...
I agree with your analysis... it has similarities with mine
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Originally Posted by rcopadilla
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