Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

shorting now and will re start longs on next swing important for me to sell R1 areas and buy S1 areas if that makes sense... mkts tend to trade between these levels in ranges for day traders and so far so good
longs from S1 areas yesterday worked and some also longs today now shorted R1 levels and closed. looking for flat period here while i scratch me head

3100 - 3180 areas are key
3060 very important level for bulls and bears

Originally Posted by Clivewaverider

My version has 13 waves being the countable ups and downs of a double extended impulse wave as per Elliot wave Principle or the longest structure in Hopkiss's Harmonic structure. The problem withe xtensions, especially in the 5th wave is that they are not always discernible. My basic driver is that after 4.5 years of trying, I just can not get happy with EWaves per se - that is the intricate labelling and construction of a wave count that may or may not hold. Having counted over and over all the various types of waves across various authors and glimpsed (more work!!) the Delta theory, I am happy that if I can count somewhere between 9 and 11 waves, that maybe I missed 12 and 13 somewhere, and I will not then bet with that trend but look for reversals in ending patterns and trend line breaks. If there is then a 12 and 13, then I'll fade it and 'hope' that i am right. I have been taken to task with this last bit of my approach by various forum members on the basis that hope will break the bank someday. This may indeed be the case but I bank my profits every night (10% of bank is target) and continue to find that a blow out remains illusive.

The counts you see have no form - I am not projecting 5 anywhere - it is just floating around to add to a wave if it gets there. I am also not saying 4 is over. All I do is stick counts on a wave if it looks complete. If I get a biggish looking abc, I might restart the wave count if I had got to say 7 (abc/b//abc) in the previous leg and the regression channel looks as if it could take a second equal leg of 7.

What I can say is that if we keep getting higher lows and we then get to 7, then I start getting squeamish at longs and will look for ending structures and targets to short, especially if 11-13 appear. I miss out on loads but catch enough midtrain to keep my trading debacle alive!

It is all very discretionary and why I use pyrapoint, regression, hull channels, pivots (daily, weekly, monthly) trend lines etc etc etc.

Thank you for the explanation. So it turns out that while your methodology helps you come up with a trading gameplan, your tactical rules are not fixed in stone and your are constantly adjusting to the action when it is needed?? Knowing when to adjust (your timing is excellent) is the hardest thing to quantify and program. I guess it is basically a summation Go/No Go) of all the trading factors being used against the current state of the price action. If it is getting into the latter stages, ie your counts are getting higher, you would be looking for a different set of conditions to base you decisions than if the count was still young.

Fake out? I got 5 little waves up on stoch mom this morning and 3 down. Lots to do for this to be a short for me. Tough day to read but I looking for more longs till see 5 of something down.

Originally Posted by rcopadilla

Thank you for the explanation. So it turns out that while your methodology helps you come up with a trading gameplan, your tactical rules are not fixed in stone and your are constantly adjusting to the action when it is needed?? Knowing when to adjust (your timing is excellent) is the hardest thing to quantify and program. I guess it is basically a summation Go/No Go) of all the trading factors being used against the current state of the price action. If it is getting into the latter stages, ie your counts are getting higher, you would be looking for a different set of conditions to base you decisions than if the count was still young.

Beautifully put sir. I prefer to say i make it up as I go along, but the longer I have been hanging around this forum, the more I am starting to believe that the money I am making is not just good luck, although I am more than happy to take all of that i can get. I think, I sort of get it - the market that is - but prefer to bet on my gut feel when a myriad of indicators are talking to me with the same story. I distrust trends with a passion unless a good retracement has been counted to my satisfaction. The only time I lost money was betting on a trend continuing but look at EURUSD for the past few years and as we know it is in long term correction. When it becomes a trender again, easy life me thinks.

Originally Posted by Clivewaverider

Fake out? I got 5 little waves up on stoch mom this morning and 3 down. Lots to do for this to be a short for me. Tough day to read but I looking for more longs till see 5 of something down.

Here's the chart - now really, no more from me. Up till it aint!

Hi,

Perhaps this was a runnig flat correction?

EUR/USD: Exotic option expiries tomorrow suggest we might see a downside test to 1.2950 | ForexLive

Patryk

Originally Posted by fazi

Hi,

Perhaps this was a runnig flat correction?

EUR/USD: Exotic option expiries tomorrow suggest we might see a downside test to 1.2950 | ForexLive

Patryk

It can be whatever, but the drop from 1.3211 to 1.2993 does not look like B wave to me.

hello good morning i think its going up

i just want to know how we attach chart here

Originally Posted by Engin Gencer

i hate ranges!!! You have to constantly check

i think its only retesting the down trend line which is broken, i dont know how to post chart so i can show you more clearly

Do we have a Diamond Bottom formation here?





Here's an example. To good to be true heee, I know....

Originally Posted by AV1

It can be whatever, but the drop from 1.3211 to 1.2993 does not look like B wave to me.

hmm, however I count waves it misses 1 swing to be a propper 5ve down - looks like a sharp correction down to me. But as you said - it can be whatever

Patryk

Originally Posted by Clivewaverider

Beautifully put sir. I prefer to say i make it up as I go along, but the longer I have been hanging around this forum, the more I am starting to believe that the money I am making is not just good luck, although I am more than happy to take all of that i can get. I think, I sort of get it - the market that is - but prefer to bet on my gut feel when a myriad of indicators are talking to me with the same story. I distrust trends with a passion unless a good retracement has been counted to my satisfaction. The only time I lost money was betting on a trend continuing but look at EURUSD for the past few years and as we know it is in long term correction. When it becomes a trender again, easy life me thinks.

The gut feeling from an experienced trader is a result of all the years of work trying to interpret the price action. It is of far more value than any set of charts from a newbie.
Like you, I use this forum to help solidify my trading ideas and maybe pick up something to fill in some of the 'holes' in my methodology. There is a goldmine of ideas here with active traders doing their thing.

Originally Posted by fazi

hmm, however I count waves it misses 1 swing to be a propper 5ve down - looks like a sharp correction down to me. But as you said - it can be whatever

Patryk

I know, something like this 3-???-5