Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

Originally Posted by AV1

Good Morning Traders,

I would like to share the count that I am the most confident on it at this time. It may be wrong of course but like I said, this is what I believe based on price action lately. Now this wave 2 it may coil here and take some time to materialize.

Attachment 123863

I am about the same but playing the shorter counts - here is my 8hr chart of the 1-2 element. I maybe over counting it as usual, but starc band and overhead resistance point to cloudy weather!

Originally Posted by Clivewaverider

I am about the same but playing the shorter counts - here is my 8hr chart of the 1-2 element. I maybe over counting it as usual, but starc band and overhead resistance point to cloudy weather!

Clive,

It may take time, because of indecisive market I was talking about. Take a look at the chart, it will speak itself.

Originally Posted by Clivewaverider

You making me work here - they are also on the chart! Still a tight band between 1.3121 and 1.3131 - so Daily pivot level. But I run a weekly, and 240min band so different prices on each. Bottom line, is that I see the whole move up from 1.2994 as corrective because it looks and counts as a corrective. I do not want to be long on high MyWave counts when a thrust down could happen. My weekly band is still down and attached.

I posted a research paper on the Swiss army Knife indicator earlier in the week regarding my MA calcs, if you are interested. It was a hyperlink to my docs folder, so let me know if it does not open up and I'll post again.

I could not find your docs folder so I did a Google search instead. Can you provide a link???
The Swiss Army indicator research paper is interesting. Basically the MA conversions from one timeframe to another is via a formulation similar to that of the Formulation of the EMA:using a coefficient and base value to convert.

Your expectation of a countermove when your counts are high is similar to expecting a reversal when things get oversold or overbought. A reversal is the normal scenario to expect. But in an extended move, while there is a reversal attempt, the attempt disappears and the original move continues. Adjustments have to be made or there will be some pain in store.

only got to the 15min 20MA support before reversing. Bounces at a Bollinger midline are signs of strength. Upside action could start building momentum.

The upside targets are shown as yellow ellipses.
The core indicators are overbought but not overly so.
The price has not gone parabolic.

Originally Posted by rcopadilla

The upside targets are shown as yellow ellipses.
The core indicators are overbought but not overly so.
The price has not gone parabolic.

Targets hit. Take profits. It is still a little early for shorting. Wait for lower highs, Neg D, etc.... Will it get to the Daily R2 (~1.3220) ? That would be an obvious reversal level.

Originally Posted by Lars

the fish gets toasted!

Originally Posted by Lars

we are now at the topside again, second time this day. I think lately tomorrow the fish will be toasted at the topside! next targets. 1,3172 / 1,3212

I told you yesterday ... damn EUR > / .. go Down!!

Originally Posted by rcopadilla

Targets hit. Take profits. It is still a little early for shorting. Wait for lower highs, Neg D, etc.... Will it get to the Daily R2 (~1.3220) ? That would be an obvious reversal level.

The gameplan for working the upmove is pretty much over. All targets met and the Daily 20MA has been tagged. Next gameplan will probably one to work a consolidation, rather than a reversal although both have similar elements.

This trading stuff never ends!!!

Decisions have yet to be made regarding the upcoming retracement. Has it started or will there be enough juice left in the bulls to get to R2? Where is the support level target for the retracement? Bollinger bands near R1???, the Pivot??, S1??

Starting to nibble on shorts.

Originally Posted by rcopadilla

Starting to nibble on shorts.

Wait to close the half hour candle first

Originally Posted by Spyros

Wait to close the half hour candle first

LOL, I work the 1min,5min, 15min and tick for my entries and exits. I like Clivewaverider's trading style because it is fairly aggressive. I am even more aggressive. If I get spanked for being wrong, so be it. I am a good 'guesser' and am far more right than wrong. With a good methodology, don't need to sweat the small stuff.

this is chart updated from 1 i posted yesterday on 1 hr INV HS

It did the trick - remained bullish on this pattern tech play

[QUOTE=cw1;1119049]a break earlier this morning signalling eu upmove then drop 50 odd pips
now both are back in the wedge and now eu looks like it may just break past R1

SO LOOK FOR LONGS ABOVE 3160 FOR MOVES TOWARDS 3190 3200

3240 SEEMS FAR AWAY BUT IS IT ........................................[/QUOTE

simply simply Marve

The Boll20 midline is currently around 1.31454.
If that fails, The lower band is around 1.31095.
The daily Pivot is around 1.3123.

The Pivot is the most likely support level but first let's see what happens at the Boll20 midline when it gets there about 40 pips from now.