Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

Originally Posted by TAfool

Playing it as I laid out in my Gap and LPI Charts. I'm short E/U. Began a little early as I started shorting at the 61.8% usd line -- it went to the 78% point.

From my LPI chart, the turn down was pegged to be April 21 and the next turn up is May 5th. Those are right at the French election dates (first vote April 22nd and run-off is May 6th). Coincidence? I have no idea.

Here's a recent USD chart. Notice the prior run up beginning in March. Breakaway gap followed by a small continuation gap then finally the large exhaustion gap.
http://www.tafool.com/Charts/usd0423121hGapChart.png

Hey TAfool! Love your charts. I see lower swing highs and lower swing lows on your chart which tells me to short this baby!

to be buying after the how europe and US has performed..I feel it's too risky to be long..therefore I'm shorting with a stop @ 1.3175 just above the H4 250MA - will keep trade open with no target..I know might be silly but will trail..I have no idea where this is going but I feel there isnt much conviction with the buyers....hence staying short until something significant happens..

hello traders

here is the chart and in a chart you will notice down trend lines and uptrend lines.
if you remember the last friday when prices failed to close above 1.3212 i said its going down and i closed my longs b4 reaching my TP at 1.3228 just shy of 2 pips and said its a great short opportunity and indeed it was.
now
the prices did come down to retest the down channel on 4hr time and you will notice on my charts how beautifully they came down retest the downtrend line successfully and again successfully manages to close above the uptrend line, this is very bullish to me, i am currently long at 1.3122 targeting 1.3270-85 with stops just under 1.3103
check on my charts the "golden" circle.

i am expecting break out to the upside any time soon

good luck with your trades

thank you!

Originally Posted by Paul Chin

Trading back the gap is a high probability trade. This is also the main reason for me closing out all my shorts around 1.312+. I'm not keen to bet against it.

which gap ??
sundays's gap has been closed

Well, as ever, notwithstanding all the work we all put in, we have both buy and sell consensus with some absentions!!

For all those watching and hoping to learn, welcome to the market as it really is!!

Good luck everyone.

Originally Posted by cw1

which gap ??
sundays's gap has been closed

Go back ten or so posts CW1 -- I just did all that. Looks like data inconsistencies to me but mine may be wrong and have filled in a gap that really does exist. Hey ho.

My 240 min MACD has not closed above the average yet, but it is holding its own and the daily is still positive with the average of that (blueline) now above zero. I do not use standard settings and the ones used are very sensitive (so could of course crash down too!).

In the pyrapoint chart (GANN 45degree lines), the red line running left to right, just past the price action is the downtrend confirmation line. If price pushes up before close of play today through the blue and red intersection above the current candle, it is in open space and what a come back it would have been (triple corrective vs ongoing impulsive vs retracement of the latter).

If it does not push through by then, it will likely flop about under the blue diagonal moving right - this would be more like a retracement move in my mind.

I mention this, because that red line will launch a rocket, if it breaks through - cant guarantee the rocket won't crash but one of the reasons I have been tempted long from 1.3110 earlier today - it was worth a punt!! Alternatively, the 1.3161 line will reject and turn down the 240min MACD - well that is what I reckon, anyhows.

It's early to be posting monthly stuff up because the candle is still open but i want to point this out here because we may have it a low for the week today. If bulls want to make a move, they will attempt to close the monthly candle bullish ona failure of 1.3 which takes it back to the open at 3360 minimum by the Friday/Sunday-Monday . This is all possible if today's low holds as the low for the week.

Your trend line is more important than you might have noticed. also 100DMA held today. Price got below it but shorts failed below it.

Originally Posted by turmaz

hello traders

here is the chart and in a chart you will notice down trend lines and uptrend lines.
if you remember the last friday when prices failed to close above 1.3212 i said its going down and i closed my longs b4 reaching my TP at 1.3228 just shy of 2 pips and said its a great short opportunity and indeed it was.
now
the prices did come down to retest the down channel on 4hr time and you will notice on my charts how beautifully they came down retest the downtrend line successfully and again successfully manages to close above the uptrend line, this is very bullish to me, i am currently long at 1.3122 targeting 1.3270-85 with stops just under 1.3103
check on my charts the "golden" circle.

i am expecting break out to the upside any time soon

good luck with your trades

thank you!

In 30m chart my MAs shows weak uptrend that will not hold. The blue mountain has reached extremely high levels like my black MA. The red MA just closed above the DOT MA & the fib retracement from yesterday's high (1.3227) to today's low (1.3105) is weak (38.2%).



In 1h chart my MAs shows strong downtrend that will keep going. The red mountain has not touched low levels.The red & DOT MA is still going down & the black MA doesn't seem to have the expected dynamic to rise. The fib retracement from yesterday's low has exceed 100%.



My conclusion in short term trading is that this uptrend will last short. Maybe in next hours we see a higher high to fib 50% before the continuation of the downtrend. I hope that I am not wrong...

As my -----le' says, it is all personal interpretation - I would say that in comparison to the ending diagonal, the price action since 1.3110 ish has been quite strong - consistent, no spiking, no where to enter safely unless you took a punt on wave counts, etc, broken its regression channel from the top, pushed back through S1. I could go on, but that is my interpretation of my charts that I draw up to justify what I think is going on.

I think your charts are some of the prettiest and cohesive, but just Like you, I hope I am right.

Great job huh!

Originally Posted by psperos

Your trend line is more important than you might have noticed. also 100DMA held today. Price got below it but shorts failed below it.

yes correct!

Also yesterday we saw a beautiful beautiful butterfly... but this is only my thoughts, nothing more nothing less...thanks

Glad to see you posting your methodology. Sometimes it does not matter if you are right or wrong, but that you have something to work with and make adjustments to. And after a while, you end up with something that can produce consistent results.
The daily and weekly charts are bullish. But after they hit their respective resistances at the upper bands, time to go bear.

Originally Posted by Spyros

In 30m chart my MAs shows weak uptrend that will not hold. The blue mountain has reached extremely high levels like my black MA. The red MA just closed above the DOT MA & the fib retracement from yesterday's high (1.3227) to today's low (1.3105) is weak (38.2%).



In 1h chart my MAs shows strong downtrend that will keep going. The red mountain has not touched low levels.The red & DOT MA is still going down & the black MA doesn't seem to have the expected dynamic to rise. The fib retracement from yesterday's low has exceed 100%.



My conclusion in short term trading is that this uptrend will last short. Maybe in next hours we see a higher high to fib 50% before the continuation of the downtrend. I hope that I am not wrong...

Very nice charts, thanks for posting them.