Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

Hi Robert - I am still ignorant as I am more of a fundamental investor. All the reports have been bearish on the EURO. The political and economic situations in Europe is so bad and who still chasing the EURO up up and up. I am puzzled. If bankers want to buy the EURO, the can wait one or two days. Why should anyone want to chase the EURO? Thanks for your guidance. Eric

EW count for EURUSD - I reckon either in the 3rd or the 5th of the Z wave in a triple correction. Not long now till something heavier to the downside in my opinion. I am fading this now as this is an ending pattern I have been after for a few days now.

I will remove downside targets and count MyWave's instead downhill, as patterns should be cleaner.

We shall see of course.

Originally Posted by Clivewaverider

EW count for EURUSD - I reckon either in the 3rd or the 5th of the Z wave in a triple correction. Not long now till something heavier to the downside in my opinion. I am fading this now as this is an ending pattern I have been after for a few days now.

I will remove downside targets and count MyWave's instead downhill, as patterns should be cleaner.

We shall see of course.

I'm quite sure we are in a last 5th wave that's going to make double top there or just start falling anytime. If you go down to 1 Minute you'll see it.

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Originally Posted by ericwong

Hi Robert - I am still ignorant as I am more of a fundamental investor. All the reports have been bearish on the EURO. The political and economic situations in Europe is so bad and who still chasing the EURO up up and up. I am puzzled. If bankers want to buy the EURO, the can wait one or two days. Why should anyone want to chase the EURO? Thanks for your guidance. Eric

The bankers are buying BILLIONS of euros; this is a major transfer of a large portion of the bad assets on Euro-bank balance sheets that has taken five weeks to carry out. I think they're about done-- but, they don't consult me. I came in here the second week of March in the same position you are now, looking at the fundamentals and seeing that the euro is horribly overvalued. The thing is, that the central banks in Japan and the US act against overvaluation of the yen and dollar, but the European central bank seems mostly to stay out, or even to distort the market in the opposite way-- I consider it suicidal (with European exports systematically overpriced by ~15% the economies have a lead weight around their necks, and the weaker ones are failing one after another) but, again, they don't consult me. For a couple weeks now there have been heavy sellers at the top (companies who make euros by selling goods to the continent, and want to exchange them for home currency) who won't go away (trade imbalance ensures there are always more of them than of the reverse situation), but also heavy buyers giving it updrafts, who won't go away either (Asian banks buying up European assets, particularly during the Asian hours, nighttime in US, but also seen in London session often), and price has been stuck in a 1.30-1.32 range.

If you look at the news tickers, there are comments like "We have yet to see any real justification for the latest Euro rally" and "The Euro is curiously strong" etc. This really cannot go on much longer, but my forecast has been no real break down until early May when politics will intervene: France will elect a Socialist President (May 6; Sarkozy has no chance), Greece will either elect a hopelessly hung Parliament or a leftist coalition repudiating the "austerity" deal with the Eurozone (also May 6), and Spain will be hit with another round of intense, possibly violent protests (May 1 and May 15 are scheduled rallies).

Originally Posted by AV1

I'm quite sure we are in a last 5th wave that's going to make double top there or just start falling anytime. If you go down to 1 Minute you'll see it.

I think I am almost excited. The largest movement in the past 20 days has been 154 pips high to low on 3rd April - a repeat would be perfect month end stuff.

Don't forget to check out the other forum sections if you trade more that just the Euro - feel free to use this link to reach the main page and check out other sections if interested

http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/forum/

Hi Robert - you're sooo knowledgeable about the situation in Europe. It's great that I know you through this forum. I think that I will definitely be able to learn from so many super traders here. Best regards and many thanks. Eric

Originally Posted by Clivewaverider

I think I am almost excited. The largest movement in the past 20 days has been 154 pips high to low on 3rd April - a repeat would be perfect month end stuff.

Well that has made that triple zigzag didn't it? It went past tat top. I'm even more bearish now.

Originally Posted by AV1

Well that has made that triple zigzag didn't it? It went past tat top. I'm even more bearish now.

I think an ED on 5 mins building - might make the monthly pivot. Vapours! I also got MyWave 13 in the Z wave matching up with this EW count, so I am keen to see the result some time soon.

hello traders again,

i am expecting the prices will break the 1.3250 barrier, once 1.3251 broken it will immediately call for 1.3285-1.3305 range, my bias is bullish, once weekly downtrend line broken and closed above that line to me i would looking for 1.3474

thank you and trade well, use leverage wisely
good luck all!

Originally Posted by turmaz

hello traders again,

i am expecting the prices will break the 1.3250 barrier, once 1.3251 broken it will immediately call for 1.3285-1.3305 range, my bias is bullish, once weekly downtrend line broken and closed above that line to me i would looking for 1.3474

thank you and trade well, use leverage wisely
good luck all!

You not rolling over with us wave counters then! I continue to be intrigued by all of our diverse opinions - I reckon there should always be a market if us lot are anything to go by. Good luck indeed, although I obviously hope your good luck coming my way is better than the luck I send you.

and H8 was also tag. Looks like a Trending bias is in place since H8 upper Boll20 should get tagged multiple times.

Originally Posted by Clivewaverider

You not rolling over with us wave counters then! I continue to be intrigued by all of our diverse opinions - I reckon there should always be a market if us lot are anything to go by. Good luck indeed, although I obviously hope your good luck coming my way is better than the luck I send you.

please come again, my english is not that good, your reply would be appriciated

Originally Posted by turmaz

please come again, my english is not that good, your reply would be appriciated

Your english is very good as far as I can tell!

Wave counters: some of us here attempt to count Elliot Waves and I try (I do try) to compare them to MyWaves, which are my own reductive spin on this and delta wave methodology. Based on what we are interpreting, we think the updraft is somewhat tainted and has a dark side to it - that being a strong move down. I do not really mind whether it is a strong retracement in a bigger move up or a follow on of the drop from 1.3384, but betting on 'up' is not in my sights irrespective of the continued move. Having said that, I have no monolopy on interpretation at all, so good luck to us all!