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04-25-2012, 04:40 PM #73441
please come again??
Originally Posted by AV1
04-25-2012, 04:59 PM #73442
ok traders me little tired but b4 leaving i want you to know something for tomorrow.
tomorrow if prices come down after london open to 1.3183 breaks it or test it, if breaks it and immediately find resistance at 1.3183 precise then price most probably going down to test 1.3125, the time frame to be in mind 15 min charts. if 15 min candle closes under 1.3183 after closing it must find res at 1.3183 then immediately sell short TP 1.3125-30 and stop loss just above the recent high at that time with stop buy order too, yes im talking about "stop buy" order. because after closing under 1.3183 on 15min TF it must/should not come above 1.3183 and if comes above 1.3183 then its very great long buy with stops just under the very recent lows at that time.
try this on demo account first
good luck to you all trade well and use leverage wisely!
04-25-2012, 04:59 PM #73443
It's your fault that EUR/USD didn't go down today
Originally Posted by turmaz
04-25-2012, 05:38 PM #73444
Hi Guru Robert - As usual I like to thank you in explaining to me. I always enjoy reading your reply. As I'm a die hard fundamentalist, I buy or sell to hold. I share your opinion that the euro PPP is $1.11 and that's why I shorted and am still holding the position though losing several hundred now. I don't know, and my stubborness refuses to allow me to believe that the euro can go so high! I refuse to understand why traders or rich traders dare to take the risk to buy high (probably they then sell higher). But isn't the risk just too great that the euro tanks suddenly. I have seen vertical dives off 50 to 60 pips and they lose their pants. Why then do they dare to take the risk to chase. Is this what you call contrarian approach or because the SSI is so extreme now that retail traders like us are "cleverly" shorting and the biggies are by the side swallowing our trades! Anyways I am content with my position even I lose because my brain refuses to comprehend the strength of the euro. All the best Robert. Eric
04-25-2012, 05:53 PM #73445
4 Hour Chart and Neg D
Negative Divergence has shown up on various timeframes including the 4 Hour.
It is reasonable to expect a retracement.
There are several lines that can offer support but if the price can get down to the lower Boll20 (1.3125), that would make for a nice reversal level.
04-25-2012, 05:55 PM #73446
forget all your stubborness or youre gonna lose money. if a trade is going against you the faster youre out of it the better
Originally Posted by ericwong
04-25-2012, 05:56 PM #73447
Been pretty busy lately but doesnt seem like im missing too much anyway. Overall picture of the Euro is the Triangle setup on the daily chart. To me the weekly is bullish but we'll see which way we go. GL all.
“There are no limitations to the mind except those we acknowledge.”
04-25-2012, 06:24 PM #73448
right, basically can't upload charts still, but on week long timescales, i have a sell at 133, which i feel may come into play tomo, otherwise, a buy at 13155/60, which could be an afternoon-2day trade.
on the move up to 133, there will be some optimism about more action from the BoJ tomo as they'll certainly need to do more stimulus to get to their inflation target given slowdown elsewhere in the world. maybe we'll see this reflected in equity markets
politically europe has weakened this week and the french situation casts a shadow until sarko gets re-elected (and if not we're probably heading for new EURUSD over the next 3 months lows imo)
04-25-2012, 06:42 PM #73449
Hi MysticMegatron - thanks for your advice. I think I am going to learn it the hard way. I may lose as I am still stubborn. Eric
04-25-2012, 07:02 PM #73450
04-25-2012, 07:08 PM #73451
ok - indeed stubborn, good luck
Originally Posted by ericwong
04-25-2012, 09:06 PM #73452
Here you see the last wave has retraced to the 61.8 of the fibo. Very common. Also the obvious 4 hour rising wedge and the upper descending daily trendline. Here is my chart
04-25-2012, 09:14 PM #73453
I expect one more push higher out of the wedge perhaps to that falling daily trend line before a turn around, however im already short and waiting, RR too tasty too pass up
Originally Posted by Paul Chin
04-25-2012, 10:14 PM #73454
I have been baffled trying to comprehend these continuing upswings as well, and so are a lot of analysts out there. But the bottom line is: those guys buying up all those euros have a lot of money, and you and I don't. So the market goes their way. Do they know something we don't? Or are they making a really bad move? What matters more than figuring out their motives is figuring out whether they are going to continue doing this, and if so, for how long, so we can trade in ways that make money. I am very happy for you if you can be truly content when you lose, knowing that you are right: I feel even more content when I am right, and also winning!
Originally Posted by ericwong
I cannot see the euro tanking all the way down to $1.11, because major currencies are always going to have a "reserve currency" premium. I roughly calculate it would need to be in the lower 1.20's before the southern economies can start growing again. However, the ECB does not act like the Fed or the Bank of Japan, to prioritize economic growth: their charter states their policy aim as containing inflation. A big part of the mystery of the institutional buyers' motivation is a confidence that the currency will not be *manipulated* downward, as can too easily happen with the dollar and the yen. However, market forces still should drive it down eventually: the big sellers aren't going anywhere, because they make more euros that they need to cash in, every single day that the strong euro makes it profitable to export to Europe (and not so profitable to export out of Europe). So there are limits on these upward moves: they keep running into a buzz-saw of heavy euro-dumping. Are the big buyers going to go anywhere? The Asian banks may be about done, but maybe the Saudi royals are feeling like diversifying out of dollars, and will step into the role of propping up the euro.
I am thinking next week or so, however, that the buyers are going to fold their tents and let the euro crash. The political weather will get stormier the longer this economic mismatch goes on. MysticMegatron says "the french situation casts a shadow until sarko gets re-elected" but what I hear from France is that Sarko is already toast (he made some noises trying to appeal to the National Front people and now has to say he doesn't mean it or lose all the centrists; like Romney's ploy with trying to play Tea Party and then do an Etch-a-Sketch, it turns off both); Greek elections the same day will be very telling about whether the south is ready to revolt openly against the bankers; Spain will be noisy as the demonstration season gets into full swing; none of this can be good for euro-denominated investments, as markets hate uncertainty more than anything.
04-25-2012, 10:27 PM #73455
Sell in May and walk away? Isnt that what they say? Im with ya
Originally Posted by Robert Eckert