I have been baffled trying to comprehend these continuing upswings as well, and so are a lot of analysts out there. But the bottom line is: those guys buying up all those euros have a lot of money, and you and I don't. So the market goes their way. Do they know something we don't? Or are they making a really bad move? What matters more than figuring out their motives is figuring out whether they are going to continue doing this, and if so, for how long, so we can trade in ways that make money. I am very happy for you if you can be truly content when you lose, knowing that you are right: I feel even more content when I am right, and also winning!
I cannot see the euro tanking all the way down to $1.11, because major currencies are always going to have a "reserve currency" premium. I roughly calculate it would need to be in the lower 1.20's before the southern economies can start growing again. However, the ECB does not act like the Fed or the Bank of Japan, to prioritize economic growth: their charter states their policy aim as containing inflation. A big part of the mystery of the institutional buyers' motivation is a confidence that the currency will not be *manipulated* downward, as can too easily happen with the dollar and the yen. However, market forces still should drive it down eventually: the big sellers aren't going anywhere, because they make more euros that they need to cash in, every single day that the strong euro makes it profitable to export to Europe (and not so profitable to export out of Europe). So there are limits on these upward moves: they keep running into a buzz-saw of heavy euro-dumping. Are the big buyers going to go anywhere? The Asian banks may be about done, but maybe the Saudi royals are feeling like diversifying out of dollars, and will step into the role of propping up the euro.
I am thinking next week or so, however, that the buyers are going to fold their tents and let the euro crash. The political weather will get stormier the longer this economic mismatch goes on. MysticMegatron says "the french situation casts a shadow until sarko gets re-elected" but what I hear from France is that Sarko is already toast (he made some noises trying to appeal to the National Front people and now has to say he doesn't mean it or lose all the centrists; like Romney's ploy with trying to play Tea Party and then do an Etch-a-Sketch, it turns off both); Greek elections the same day will be very telling about whether the south is ready to revolt openly against the bankers; Spain will be noisy as the demonstration season gets into full swing; none of this can be good for euro-denominated investments, as markets hate uncertainty more than anything.
Here you go Robert this is for you my friend. News Headlines
hello and very warm good morning all!
today i would like to talk mechanically!
as i quoted a important number 1.3183 last night i would look forward to this number in very near future that how price reacts there because this is key area and hot spot trading zone, as most of you know by now i am purely a technical trader and i always looking in to the prices why the turned around from that particular area, but technical trading is commanded by the mechanical trading, take an example of a car; a driver and a car mechanic car driver only knows how to drive a car and this is technical trader and mechanic knows the engine how it works and he definately know how to drive it
prices just manages to break the imp weekly down line as shown in the chart, this is early signal that we are go up but there is no hurry, this up move fade here @ 1.3262 or 1.3274-78,
i booked my profit at 1.3256 now i am waiting for the retrace and eagerly waiting how the prices react on these number if goes up i would love to short and goes down then i'll wait for the reaction on those down prices mentioned in the chart
good luck!
Price is now to where I find the lvl been interesting to sell into strength.. 3269 comes in topping on charts and with USD as indicated pattern on descending triangle wanted a break south is done. Focus on USD now turns to the wedge play and the base of it comes to around 9864..
However do have a down channel on USD as well with the base at around 9842..
Patience is virtue. The sooner we learn this all, sooner we can start walking to the bank. Good Luck to all of us
The trick is to wait the price meet ur limits, instead of one jumping in.. however scalps is a totally different scenario and is not everyone's cup of tea
Disclaimer: I'm not at all suggesting trades when by either posting the graphs, or my entries. You can view it, but in the end you have to use your own logic and approach, as there is no certainty about this uncertain market...
EUR/USD breakouts above yesterday’s range this morning thereby resuming the uptrend.
Given the uptrend we need to expect further Euro strength. 1.3275 which is today's R2 level of the pivot point level will as usual work as profit target yet with yesterday's fairly narrow range we might extend to 1.33. The trend will be bullish as long as we trade above 1.3210.
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EUR/USD 30 min chart
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we have broken the weekly downline and hourly candle closes above confirms it but the 240min candle just closed under it, that gives me the indication now we are more probably going down to test/check the 1.3183 number, here one thing should be noticed that after the hourly candle closes above the weekly downline confirms the weekly time frame is in play now and the signal under 240 min candle should/must be nullified because of the weekly TF in play, so if the 240 min channel(up)
breaks that does not mean that we are in down trend to mean it means a healthy retrace
downside imp number 1.3183 and 1.3125
good luck and use leverage wisely i shorted cautiously at 1.3251 with first TP at 1.3183-86 area stops just above 1.3274 area
thank you!
Negative Divergence has shown up on various timeframes including the 4 Hour.
It is reasonable to expect a retracement.
There are several lines that can offer support but if the price can get down to the lower Boll20 (1.3125), that would make for a nice reversal level.
Wrong setup for a trending bias in the price action. Pullbacks are short-lived when the price action is trending.
some quick Charts....
Daily: 3260-65 is the key resistance break higher n i ve weekly R1 or the upper t.l at the 3300 level to look for,a break higher to this level will confirm a move all the way to R2 or 3374.
as long as 3260-65 holds i remain bearish, with some bearish div formin on daily it shud give a fall,
4hr: same bearish div can be seen on 4 hr, a break lower to 3208 or the pivot will confirm the move down to 3190 or the lower t.l , once broken n i don mind it goin down all the way to S2 or 3145,
any move up to 3265-70 or R2 area is also a sell IMO,
over all price action has been `crazy` lately, still managin to get my daily pip goal,
today i ve started the day with 30 pips loss n now covered it back, n still holdin a runner sell from 3258 with s.l at even,
im still waiting for the CFTC report to come out to take in some new info. im still bearish on daily and last high was 1.3375. as long as we stay below that, i still see the bears in control FXCM SSI is still net short, just pointing that out.
so far price has managed to slowly creep up to the monthly pivot @ 1.3240/50. it can be a good place to start loading up on shorts if u are a bear, and if u are a long a break above will trigger a much larger move up and u can forget about bears.......
part of my strategy is to find a shift in the trend at critical levels (pivot points, TL, round numbers etc....) before they happen, and i use divergences which can be at times, powerful.
we stay below on daily, price should start rolling over @ 1.3250 and bears once again will get back in.
the USDollar fxcm ticker broke passed the first supp which was a real surprise for me, since im bullish dollar for the time being...... second supp comes in 9,850/30........
some quick Charts....
Daily: 3260-65 is the key resistance break higher n i ve weekly R1 or the upper t.l at the 3300 level to look for,a break higher to this level will confirm a move all the way to R2 or 3374.
as long as 3260-65 holds i remain bearish, with some bearish div formin on daily it shud give a fall,
4hr: same bearish div can be seen on 4 hr, a break lower to 3208 or the pivot will confirm the move down to 3190 or the lower t.l , once broken n i don mind it goin down all the way to S2 or 3145,
any move up to 3265-70 or R2 area is also a sell IMO,
over all price action has been `crazy` lately, still managin to get my daily pip goal,
today i ve started the day with 30 pips loss n now covered it back, n still holdin a runner sell from 3258 with s.l at even,
Gud luck all n
Happy Trading
~ chaudhry ~
heck i didn't see your post there, u took the words right out my mouth but wow at least i got the same view as yours.... love it mate.
keep it up......
we have broken the weekly downline and hourly candle closes above confirms it but the 240min candle just closed under it, that gives me the indication now we are more probably going down to test/check the 1.3183 number, here one thing should be noticed that after the hourly candle closes above the weekly downline confirms the weekly time frame is in play now and the signal under 240 min candle should/must be nullified because of the weekly TF in play, so if the 240 min channel(up)
breaks that does not mean that we are in down trend to mean it means a healthy retrace
downside imp number 1.3183 and 1.3125
good luck and use leverage wisely i shorted cautiously at 1.3251 with first TP at 1.3183-86 area stops just above 1.3274 area
thank you!
Nice......... I have projected tgt on EURO to 3145 and willing to close the bulk around to it and considering hedging longs off to it..
Euro is taking a beating on cross pair esp against the GBP and the reaon why GU is taking its sweet time to follow the suit. Let it enjoy a bit on EG strength and i can surely wait a next minor higher high to short this beast as well...
GOLD hoding 1654 is a good sign as well...
GL..
Patience is virtue. The sooner we learn this all, sooner we can start walking to the bank. Good Luck to all of us
The trick is to wait the price meet ur limits, instead of one jumping in.. however scalps is a totally different scenario and is not everyone's cup of tea
Disclaimer: I'm not at all suggesting trades when by either posting the graphs, or my entries. You can view it, but in the end you have to use your own logic and approach, as there is no certainty about this uncertain market...
Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. Forex Capital Markets LLC. will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
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Originally Posted by Robert Eckert
I have been baffled trying to comprehend these continuing upswings as well, and so are a lot of analysts out there. But the bottom line is: those guys buying up all those euros have a lot of money, and you and I don't. So the market goes their way. Do they know something we don't? Or are they making a really bad move? What matters more than figuring out their motives is figuring out whether they are going to continue doing this, and if so, for how long, so we can trade in ways that make money. I am very happy for you if you can be truly content when you lose, knowing that you are right: I feel even more content when I am right, and also winning!
My Outlook on EU....
FXCM SSI is still net short, just pointing that out. 
