Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

Originally Posted by turmaz

good i like it!
price may come down to check the break out zone to confirm is it real break or fake plus i will tell you another parameters for BB which real pro traders use and it will help you alot i guess, have you seen my BB chart with other indicator "atr" how they both perfectly work with each other ?

Do share the BB settings!

Originally Posted by SkiBunny

Yes stocks can only go up. Bernanke has our back. He is a great man.

I agree but remember that he tends to embark on QE when markets are down with 16-18% from the highs

Hi everybody:

New on forum, but not in the web. Far time ago reading your post, and now I´ll try to give my opinions. Enjoy all your way of trading. Thanks you all, cause I´ve learned from you almost everything I know in this forex trading market.

I came fron the center of the european storm nowdays: SPAIN. I live in Madrid. Probably my English will also improve with this forum, don´t try to learn from me...

It seems we are at the edge of the cliff, and 1.26-1.28 could be first stop, but I also agree with many of you that 1.36-1.38 are into the long term bearish channel still in play. I don´t understand why EUR doesn´t follow european stock markets in the correction we have seen in April. That´s one of the reasons it could be possible we have to see first 1.36 before we see 1.26

Now, short with small position at 1.3250, like last night before spike down, and another small position waiting at 1.3270, in case ending diagonal breaks down. Let´s play the touch of the bearish weekly channel between 1.3270-1.3290 to see if sideways ends.

Regards.

Originally Posted by Miguel

Hi everybody:

New on forum, but not in the web. Far time ago reading your post, and now I´ll try to give my opinions. Enjoy all your way of trading. Thanks you all, cause I´ve learned from you almost everything I know in this forex trading market.

I came fron the center of the european storm nowdays: SPAIN. I live in Madrid. Probably my English will also improve with this forum, don´t try to learn from me...

It seems we are at the edge of the cliff, and 1.26-1.28 could be first stop, but I also agree with many of you that 1.36-1.38 are into the long term bearish channel still in play. I don´t understand why EUR doesn´t follow european stock markets in the correction we have seen in April. That´s one of the reasons it could be possible we have to see first 1.36 before we see 1.26

Now, short with small position at 1.3250, like last night before spike down, and another small position waiting at 1.3270, in case ending diagonal breaks down. Let´s play the touch of the bearish weekly channel between 1.3270-1.3290 to see if sideways ends.

Regards.

Welcome Miguel: this truly is an international forum and what a great business to be in where we can all cross boundaries and work together. Looking forward to your work.

It's been a week of REAL CHOP for sure. Been very busy on the home front so not much posting.

The ICH D1 is playing out like a well scripted sitcom. The confluence of 3300 will be another point of requiring a neck brace for those wild swings.

I did not think we would retrace from 3160 so fast but I took some pips at the turn and called it TGIF. I do like my sleep.

My OCO at 3190 did bank for 20. OCO's are your freind, I use alarms with them but did not set any and slept thru most of the decline.

In the mean time bank the chop the best you can. Next week looks like much of the same "Neck Brace" required for the chop at the 1.3200 line is the line to watch. And week after that the ICH cards hold more "whip'it" to dish out.

Good weekend all!

-Rod

Originally Posted by Clivewaverider

Welcome Miguel: this truly is an international forum and what a great business to be in where we can all cross boundaries and work together. Looking forward to your work.

sorry i was off the screen for replying late, i use mostly two paras
50 and 40 mostly 50 with double checking with 40 for example when you drive a car you use both mirrors side view mirrors and rear view mirror.
thank you and i am expecting another break out rather say suspecting" lol to the downside and expecting to the upside

thank you!

or may be no break out at all lol!
use leverage wisely

Originally Posted by turmaz

sorry i was off the screen for replying late, i use mostly two paras
50 and 40 mostly 50 with double checking with 40 for example when you drive a car you use both mirrors side view mirrors and rear view mirror.
thank you and i am expecting another break out rather say suspecting" lol to the downside and expecting to the upside

thank you!


or may be no break out at all lol!
use leverage wisely

Is that 40 & 50 MA instead of the usual 20 but still with 2 standard deviations?

Originally Posted by turmaz

sorry i was off the screen for replying late, i use mostly two paras
50 and 40 mostly 50 with double checking with 40 for example when you drive a car you use both mirrors side view mirrors and rear view mirror.
thank you and i am expecting another break out rather say suspecting" lol to the downside and expecting to the upside

thank you!

or may be no break out at all lol!
use leverage wisely

and one thing keep in mind must that volatility indicators and most of the other indicators other than momentum indicators they work well only in range markets but in strong trending markets they immediately fail and i know traders who buys and sells on the break out of BB ranges

Originally Posted by Clivewaverider

Is that 40 & 50 MA instead of the usual 20 but still with 2 standard deviations?

yes

50 ma with 2 stndrd dev
and
40 ma with 2 stndrd dev

Originally Posted by turmaz

yes

50 ma with 2 stndrd dev
and
40 ma with 2 stndrd dev

A Moving Average of 20 is the most common setting. Your 40MA is like using Bollinger Band 20 from a Timeframe twice as long as the one you are currently viewing. I use the most common settings because those traders moving the market with their trades will likely be using those settings as well.
I like to use a combination of the Boll20 and Boll60. A fast Bollinger and a slower one to help see what is going on.

Originally Posted by stkelrey

This is a replay of 2011 all over again. Very little can be said to take the shine off the Euro. Spain downgraded and the Euro trades flat. US GDP positive but lower than expected and Euro bid up slightly, time will tell on that front. I'm going short right now. This thing is about to break to the downside big time. Maybe not in the next few hours, who knows on that time frame but we're headed down.

downgrades don't really mean anything now as everyone who wants out of risky govt bonds is already out of them, also, there is a market for the PIIGS debt now - the LTRO money via their own domestic banks. Spanish unemp at 24% is official figure, but this doesn't account for the black economy in the country, which is apparently in massive expansion. although its undoubtably bad, a large part is also just poor bureaucracy and poor tax-collection.

If Sarko is re-elected I think we may break above 133 and that will trigger some big short covering probably and we'll get a large move up next month; big if though.

There is a lot of talk about the US fiscal cliff coming up, and this is what is supporting the QE argument in the US, which is why the USD is going down still.

Over the next week, it depends who is elected French PM (Aubry will likely mean more EUR losses imo), as this will be a big part in the election of the president

GL

Originally Posted by turmaz

and one thing keep in mind must that volatility indicators and most of the other indicators other than momentum indicators they work well only in range markets but in strong trending markets they immediately fail and i know traders who buys and sells on the break out of BB ranges

Thanks Turmaz - have used those settings for Boll bands of the On Balance Volume and found that of use too. Understand your point on being led by Moms - I tend to be led by my MyWaves and regression/Hull MAs and use the stoch moms as confirmation only. This is why I use MACD alot as not rangebound in the subcharts like stochs etc. You have to toggle the charts to make sure you do not get tunnel vision and hence why I use multiple time frame too. I keep tweaking!

Originally Posted by rcopadilla

A Moving Average of 20 is the most common setting. Your 40MA is like using Bollinger Band 20 from a Timeframe twice as long as the one you are currently viewing. I use the most common settings because those traders moving the market with their trades will likely be using those settings as well.
I like to use a combination of the Boll20 and Boll60. A fast Bollinger and a slower one to help see what is going on.

i use them as a tool and i never take decision solely on BB and its just a tool and indicators are lagging too but we must know how to use lagging indicators i prefer using leading indicators like horizontal and angle trend lines channels counter trendlines s/r fibs and fibs expansions. but remember for the technical trading i give technical trading 20 number out of 100

Originally Posted by Clivewaverider

Thanks Turmaz - have used those settings for Boll bands of the On Balance Volume and found that of use too. Understand your point on being led by Moms - I tend to be led by my MyWaves and regression/Hull MAs and use the stoch moms as confirmation only. This is why I use MACD alot as not rangebound in the subcharts like stochs etc. You have to toggle the charts to make sure you do not get tunnel vision and hence why I use multiple time frame too. I keep tweaking!

very warm welcome sir!

Originally Posted by turmaz

i use them as a tool and i never take decision solely on BB and its just a tool and indicators are lagging too but we must know how to use lagging indicators i prefer using leading indicators like horizontal and angle trend lines channels counter trendlines s/r fibs and fibs expansions. but remember for the technical trading i give technical trading 20 number out of 100

You are pretty good at coming up with support and resistances swing levels with your trend lines. I don't do trend lines because I can come up with similar support/resistance levels just from the Bollinger Bands analysis. It is nice to have more than one way to do anything.

The one thing that everyone needs to work on is the timing. You could be 100% accurate in you projections of the price action but if you are off by 1 cycle, your timing can cost you a few pips. That is one hole in my methodology that I am trying to fix. Money management techniques like stop losses is good in minimizing losses but being able to fine tune the timing and avoid the losses in the first place will be so much better.