downgrades don't really mean anything now as everyone who wants out of risky govt bonds is already out of them, also, there is a market for the PIIGS debt now - the LTRO money via their own domestic banks. Spanish unemp at 24% is official figure, but this doesn't account for the black economy in the country, which is apparently in massive expansion. although its undoubtably bad, a large part is also just poor bureaucracy and poor tax-collection.
If Sarko is re-elected I think we may break above 133 and that will trigger some big short covering probably and we'll get a large move up next month; big if though.
There is a lot of talk about the US fiscal cliff coming up, and this is what is supporting the QE argument in the US, which is why the USD is going down still.
Over the next week, it depends who is elected French PM (Aubry will likely mean more EUR losses imo), as this will be a big part in the election of the president
GL
Downgrades absolutely matter. We saw an immediate and sustained shift in 10 yr yields for Italy. Also, portfolio parameters for institutional buyers will limit the amount of Spanish bonds that can be added at this point. Poor bureaucracy and poor tax collection count, that causes systemic problems. Black economies do not solve the govt debt issues. AND so many divert attention by trying to re-focus on the US and let's face it while the US is far from being in good shape it is growing any black economies exist in the US as well and it has to offset less than 9% unempl not 24%. When it comes to Europe facts are being ignored and facts ignored do not cease to be facts.
Before any upside breakout is to happen the 15min indicators have to reset. The lower Boll20 will likely get tagged and the core indicators should be rising out of their oversold levels.
You are pretty good at coming up with support and resistances swing levels with your trend lines. I don't do trend lines because I can come up with similar support/resistance levels just from the Bollinger Bands analysis. It is nice to have more than one way to do anything.
The one thing that everyone needs to work on is the timing. You could be 100% accurate in you projections of the price action but if you are off by 1 cycle, your timing can cost you a few pips. That is one hole in my methodology that I am trying to fix. Money management techniques like stop losses is good in minimizing losses but being able to fine tune the timing and avoid the losses in the first place will be so much better.
ok good its your call but BB is really not a tool for price projection or for price targets or for support and res its a volatility "indicator" and if your trading is fine with this then its ok buddy!
ok good its your call but BB is really not a tool for price projection or for price targets or for support and res its a volatility "indicator" and if your trading is fine with this then its ok buddy!
It works for me and that is all that really matters!!! When properly done, not only can the next likely scenario be projected but the next few stages as well. I guess I must combine them with pattern recognition that only comes with experience.
London session review and outlook April 27 - 2012
Review of markets covered in today's edition of Bulls vs. Bears: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, FTSE100, S&P500, Gold, Brent Crude and WTI.
Regards
Alejandro Zambrano
Currency Strategist | DailyFX Forum (London) azambrano@fxcm.com
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It works for me and that is all that really matters!!! When properly done, not only can the next likely scenario be projected but the next few stages as well. I guess I must combine them with pattern recognition that only comes with experience.
USD seems to head for more losses.. As far as I can see it seems to be heading for a 9770-75 region.
EURO still trap within a wedge and while GU has clearly broken over and AUD as well with a move above 10435.. I suppose only a matter of time b4 euro gets over it's hangover phase...
GL..
Patience is virtue. The sooner we learn this all, sooner we can start walking to the bank. Good Luck to all of us
The trick is to wait the price meet ur limits, instead of one jumping in.. however scalps is a totally different scenario and is not everyone's cup of tea
Disclaimer: I'm not at all suggesting trades when by either posting the graphs, or my entries. You can view it, but in the end you have to use your own logic and approach, as there is no certainty about this uncertain market...
I know I have been banging on about this move up from 1.2994 being corrective and not worth taking the upside risk on and thus far the shorting of the peaks this week has served me well.
Well, I go into the weekend banging on just a tad more so! I hazzarded guess a couple of weeks ago that we might go into a triple combination correction and in my mind we have done exactly that. I think we are just completing or likely to be soon a triple three zigzag as per Banlan 11-10.
In this formation, there are 11 waves or MyWaves as I call them: abcXabcXabc. Well, I can count 5 waves up in this last bolt up which I surmised this morning my take the form of an expanded flat and that is what it has done. There maybe some more upside but it still not interest me a jot.
I have added the MyWave counts to the 240 min chart. Do not get caught long here without tight stops is my opinion. There is likely strong waves down in an overall correction wave of the move up from 1.2623 or not as the case might be!
I have been shorting all week for a reason and I am looking forward to my rewards!!
it is alot of experience sir glad we have you here i hope i will learn from your experience
you are so so senior SIR!
Regards
turmaz
No need for the sir. It's only been in the last 10 years or so that things have come together I really began to understand the market actions. So the early years don't really count.
Currently in a short scalp. That bump higher produced a lower high which is a sign of weakness that the bears can capitalize on. If a higher high was produced, the bears would be more hesitant.
So it looks like no R2 for today. Save it for the Sunday session.
The break of support earlier today as the price built momentum downwards built up the confidence of the bears, But someone started buying and not only was the down waterfall erased but new highs were printed. What to do is very simple. Someone with deep pockets wants the to continue the trend upwards. Why fight it? Only after strong resistance is reached will there be enough traders willing to short to counteract the deep pockets. Wait till the weekly upper band is tagged before expecting the uptrend to reverse.
before logging off i want you to have some thing from me a gift strategy!
if you really want to short this baby eur/usd then please wait for the confirmation, if price closes under this green up line short it with the stops just above the recent highs and TP first horizontal support, the up line is on the closing hourly prices i think my chart speaks better then me, just dont go shorting this baby, macd is confirming this up move look down carefully and closely, and prices must need to be close under this green up line at least 2 pips, then its a good short
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Originally Posted by MysticMegatron
