Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

Originally Posted by Sim3

it break your support 2982 now.. what is your view now?

and one thing more Mr sim!

every body has his/her own risk tolerance, i know my game and my game plan, and sometimes i really change my game plan according to the situation because good players know how to tackle things, and some time very good players take unnecessary risks but when they take this type of unnecessary risks they understands the out come and they wait for the right moment to shot but every shot at the right moment is not necessary a "winning shot"

Good trading is not about being right, it is about trading right.
If you want to be successful, you need to think of the long run
and ignore the outcomes of individual trades.

trade well buddy!

Originally Posted by Alejandro Zambrano

Just closed my EUR/USD short - as price is struggling to drop - rumors say that a big options player does not want price to drop under 1.29 and is therefore limiting the EUR/USD drop.

I guess other short term traders are getting impatient too and I don't want to be the last one exiting my short. I might loss some pips on this but I will short the bounce.

EUR/USD 30min

i am bullish dollar, but if the rumor is right, there seems to be negative divergence on the shorter term time frame which will lead to a dollar drop.
maybe a double top if the upper resis holds........????

imo if they break the 3037-40 area panic will grip the bears

Thanks Alejandro. I have just closed my EUR/USD shorts from 1.3055 at 1.2986, and EUR/JPY shorts from 104.26 at 103.56. Open longs at 1.2986 and 103.59 with break-even stop-loss. I wouldn´t have noticed this without your advice. I would have let run for new lows. Pip and run... Next time you came to Spain remember me to invite you some beers...

[QUOTE=turmaz;1139212]imo if they break the 3037-40 area panic will grip the bears[/QUOT

That would be the EWaver's entry for those punting the C wave diagnosis - so bears cover and new longs go on. I think I'll take the underside of the gap (1.3070 ish) today and call that a solid day's work and worry about the reaction tomorrow, unless it bolts through it before my trigger finger can execute!! All good.

Originally Posted by jogold18

i am bullish dollar, but if the rumor is right, there seems to be negative divergence on the shorter term time frame which will lead to a dollar drop.
maybe a double top if the upper resis holds........????

was about to post the chart on DX..... nicely spotted DIV buddy...
9975-77 was the key....

i had longs in from 2985-2988-2995
closed half for almost 100 pips on all n half r runnin with s.l at b.e...
daily target hit n nothin to loose now.....
small dip to 3000area on eu then bounce back to 3040-3070 area is wht i expect......
Gud luck all n
Happy trading...
~ chaudhry ~

the bells start ringing...

Greek Pro-Bailout Leaders Told by Syriza to Revoke Aid Pledges - Bloomberg

Originally Posted by Paul Chin

37.5 pips is very respectable gain already, congrats! But I'll be careful with shorting any bounce... gap closing is a high probability trade.
Good luck!

Is there some "theoretical" reason why gaps are likely to be closed, or is that just an empirical observation? My naive thought would be that a gap indicates that prices are never likely to go back there again, perhaps for years.

AV1: I have no more suggestions; the forum has always been reasonably quick for me. Google Chrome is my browser, laptop is a fairly new Lenovo.

General news: the Greeks may be trying to hurry up the failure of the coalition talks so that elections can be June 3 rather than June 10 (law requires three weeks between election announcement and voting day, voting set on a Sunday for convenience). If each took up the three days it is entitled to (ND then Syriza then Pasok then the non-partisan President) that would have stretched into next week, but ND threw in the towel after one day, Syriza now demands pledges by tomorrow from ND and Pasok that they will renounce their support of the austerity measures in order to join his government; ND of course will reject; Pasok says its firm condition is remaining in the eurozone, and Germany has already announced that if the austerity measures are rejected there will be no renegotiations, so this is unlikely. If Syriza declares failure tomorrow, Pasok can hurry up and declare failure too to get the elections in a week earlier.

A sign that this is what is happening is that Tzipras (Syriza head) is meeting not only with the Independents and the Dem Left, who he would also need for a coalition, but also with the Greens, who didn't get seats-- but not with the Communists, who would be needed in a coalition. The hope would be that the Dem Left could merge back into Syriza for the next round: if they had set aside their schism (which is all personality clashes, no real issues beyond "career advancement" for certain politicians) for the first round, they wouldn't have 52+19 seats but rather 120. Perhaps the Greens can also be persuaded to merge, or stand down for this election, when voters are likely to be conscious that votes for the major parties are what will make a difference. And, Tzipras talked with Louka Katseli, a former labor minister for Pasok, sympathetic to those crushed by austerity; this may be a play to break off some of Pasok, which won't make Venizelos very happy or inclined to deal.

Aside from whatever speculators are holding up the euro at present, the ECB published its monthly books and showed, again, that it is depleting its forex reserves to buy up euros, rather than the reverse as might be expected; not to a major extent, but it is worrisome in view of the implications. I still feel "right" in my view that the euro needed a quick 800-pip drop in March to avoid economic/political meltdowns of the sort we are now seeing; since the move has been delayed so long, 800 pips may no longer be sufficient (a messy Greek exit from the euro now looks inevitable; Spain will take hits this summer) but there is no guarantee that what is "needed" will ever happen. On the bright side: the war jitters over Iran have faded and this is finally being reflected in a crude oil drop which is likely to continue for a while, easing pressure on Europe especially (also good for US).

great. cheap holidays in Greece soon

Originally Posted by Robert Eckert

Is there some "theoretical" reason why gaps are likely to be closed, or is that just an empirical observation? My naive thought would be that a gap indicates that prices are never likely to go back there again, perhaps for years.

Dear Mr Robert,

It's an empirical observation, quite well observed by most traders, just like pivots.

I've always admire your intellectual and sense of humor through your posts, but there'll come a point in time when you realize that price does not move in proportionate to whatever news out there, and there'll also come a point in time when you get it, but just can't hold it properly, like trying to hold water in your hands. I'll like to advise you to reduce your leverage, until such time when you find a bowl to hold the water

Good luck!

Originally Posted by Paul Chin

Dear Mr Robert,

It's an empirical observation, quite well observed by most traders, just like pivots.

I've always admire your intellectual and sense of humor through your posts, but there'll come a point in time when you realize that price does not move in proportionate to whatever news out there, and there'll also come a point in time when you get it, but just can't hold it properly, like trying to hold water in your hands. I'll like to advise you to reduce your leverage, until such time when you find a bowl to hold the water

Good luck!

For such a bowl, might I suggest JM Hurst's : The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing. The knowledge is transferable to forex as it is a core element of my 'wave riding' methodology. The book will not give you the answer to how to trade the waves but it will undoubtedly help you to see that they co-exist on every timeframe - those blessed fractals if you will - and explain a lot of the technical quirks that are often written about here and elsewhere. A very important book for my growth in this career. Trust me - it should suit your way of thinking as the last thing there is in this work is 'magic'.

London session review and outlook May 8 - 2012
Review of markets covered in today's edition of Bulls vs. Bears: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, FTSE100, S&P500, Gold, Brent Crude and WTI.




Regards

Alejandro Zambrano
Currency Strategist | DailyFX Forum (London)
azambrano@fxcm.com

Follow me on twitter: https://twitter.com/AlejandroDFX


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Originally Posted by trend1

i am new user i am new in forex trading , i need the help of all of you. any advise for trading eu/usd

I started with both a demo account and a small real account. As bignat advised you, your psychology may turn out to be different when you are handling real money than pretend money. My demo went from $50K to just under 46K at the end of March up to near 63K now; while the real account went from $700 down to a low of $203 at the start of this month (and I pledged to myself that if I threw away more than $500 of it I would close it up and walk away) and barely $300 now. The major difference is that I ignore the demo account mostly, while I nervously fine-tune the real one. EXPECT the markets to burn you while you are getting the hang of it, and don't take it personally as a sign of failure.

Originally Posted by chaudhry

was about to post the chart on DX..... nicely spotted DIV buddy...
9975-77 was the key....

i had longs in from 2985-2988-2995
closed half for almost 100 pips on all n half r runnin with s.l at b.e...
daily target hit n nothin to loose now.....
small dip to 3000area on eu then bounce back to 3040-3070 area is wht i expect......

Just love it when things goes as planned.....
Gud luck all n
Happy trading...
~ chaudhry ~

Originally Posted by Robert Eckert

I started with both a demo account and a small real account. As bignat advised you, your psychology may turn out to be different when you are handling real money than pretend money. My demo went from $50K to just under 46K at the end of March up to near 63K now; while the real account went from $700 down to a low of $203 at the start of this month (and I pledged to myself that if I threw away more than $500 of it I would close it up and walk away) and barely $300 now. The major difference is that I ignore the demo account mostly, while I nervously fine-tune the real one. EXPECT the markets to burn you while you are getting the hang of it, and don't take it personally as a sign of failure.

I don't know about the other full time traders here, but I absolutely took and still take the failure personally which drives me to continue to try and minimize the impact of errors in my methodology/approach. The key is to cope with those failures and learn from them. I never understood what that really meant in the early days, as surely if I had the 'key', there wouldn't be any failures to worry about. But you can tell when you made pigs ear of something and when the market just plain beat you, notwithstanding all the preparations.

This is a great career choice for anyone who makes it out the otherside. Money is rarely discussed here but it is quite realistic to be aiming for a four figure or five figure monthly income from this forex melarkey without substantial trading reserves (accepted that this means different things to different people), although initially staying in credit seems to be all the focus one needs. There is very little extra required once one has managed that.