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05-08-2012, 02:41 PM #74161
I have banked longs at 1.3026 for the night - I had lots of filled lobster pots from fading the descent today and want to switch off for the night completely. It takes it out of you, taking a couple of days off. Not as bigger catch as maybe there would have been but banking profits is the only way to make an income in this game - market will be there tomorrow....again!!
Here in the morning.
05-08-2012, 02:59 PM #74162
The 'mysterious' part of the 'theoretical reason' behind gaps being closed is that cliche: 'nature abhors a vacuum'.
Originally Posted by Robert Eckert
The mechanical part of the 'theoretical reason' has something to do with order flow/book mechanics. Orders (of usually big players) are left in various levels that need to be filled in the process where price moves back and forth. A gap, be it physical gap or liquidity gap, leaves a lot of orders in either directions at certain levels unfilled. Brokers/market makers would eventually move things around to make sure everyone is happy. Some gaps are closed fairly quickly within 24 hours or a few days, some might be left there for much longer time depending on the strength of a trend.
05-08-2012, 03:03 PM #74163
i find failure essential in trading. if i didn't have 50% of my trades failing i couldn't have the other 50% succeeding.
05-08-2012, 03:15 PM #74164
reading a few posts and I think it is time for me to share my advice and experience. 1) Never ever use your margin call as a trade stop-loss The market will always find a way to take you out. 2) if you are day trading build on a specific position ie add to the position as price allows and always move your stop to break even...... and again if you get greedy and put your stop loss in the money to quickly it will always take you out. Just my experience and advice kudos everyone!
05-08-2012, 03:41 PM #74165
05-08-2012, 04:14 PM #74166
Here is a little vid. Its been a while so enjoy. Maybe you will get a few Ideas from it.
Out come in at the end
05-08-2012, 06:46 PM #74167
Good to see different rules and philosophies been shared today. I agree with most of the stuff being shared and I also want to bring forward this statement.
95 out of 100 traders I meet (and I meet many traders every year) are afraid of losing - yet losing is a part of trading but people don't want to understand this. As an effect of this many newbies trade very very short term as they "can't stand the heat" they also have very low initial stop loss levels as they have small accounts. They feel that is better to risk 10-15 pips instead of using lower leverage and using bigger stop losses.
Originally Posted by jbiggart
Yet the more short term we trade -> price will get more random - there is no doubt that there are traders that are very good at scalping but its takes much longer time to become profitable on scalping than trading with the bigger time frames.
This simple mathematical example shows that you need to be really go to trade with a tight stop loss
The daily EUR/USD range is about 120 pips so if we have a 60 pips stop loss and we enter randomly in line with the trend then the probability that we will not have been stopped out and in profit 24 hours later is about 50% - thus we do not need to be experts to make this happens.
However if we have a 15 pips initial stop loss and we randomly enter the market in line with the trend then there is just a 12.5% chance that the position will be open for the next day and a 87.5% chance that we would have lost the 15 pips.
Why? well -> 120pips/15pips = 8 intervals of 15 pips each. Thus we need to be very clever and pick 1 out of these 8 intervals and 1/8 = 12.5% so timing will be extremely crucial - I would say so extremely crucial that the trend will not matter in this case.
So if you have tried it before -> Try to use lower leverage and use a bigger stop loss.
I hope this makes sense.
Last edited by Alejandro Zambrano; 05-08-2012 at 06:53 PM.
05-08-2012, 06:55 PM #74168
Here's the link: http://www.forexmt4.com/_MT4_Systems...n%20Timing.pdf
Originally Posted by Clivewaverider
Thank you for sharing. Will take a look.
A beautiful mind is much more important than a fat pocket.
05-08-2012, 07:42 PM #74169
I agree with what you say below, but also there is a win/loss ratio that significantly increases using scalp strategy. Sure, the timing has to be precise but with your example with 60 pip stop that gives me 4 tries to enter position (with 15 pip S/L), that increases my chances to enter right (gambling is not an option).
Scalping makes sense when bouncing off a considerable line of S or R, TL and others…
P.S. Happy to be here guys so HELLO and have a good trade week!
Originally Posted by Alejandro Zambrano
05-08-2012, 07:53 PM #74170
Originally Posted by turmaz
Hi turmaz, thanks for your advise. Hope u do not get me wrong, I am not trying to challenge you but just try to understand how all of you analyse the data. I saw quite a number of you generate wonderful chart for analysis but till now I still can't customise a right chart for myself.
For time i got the same view as all of you but recently my analysis seem to the opposite all of u resulting having paper loss of -160 pips. Wondering where i have done wrong or something in the chart all of you have notice and I didn't see it.. Maybe can get some enlightenment from all of you guys. Thanks
05-08-2012, 08:10 PM #74171
I'm looking at the possibility of a 2910 area target if we break down and run the 2950 stops. My thinking is it would be a washing before a move higher.
To me the market is spending too much time around 1.3 for my liking. Tells me it needs to go lower, or make an attempt to in order to really break down or stage a violent reversal.
05-08-2012, 08:43 PM #74172
And also, the 3 or 4 pips of "spread" seem like nothing: but if you do a lot of in-and-out, it mounts up. By accident I have come to be trading in two very different types of style, intra-day scalping on the real account and long-range trading on the demo account. I just do not have the technical "chops" yet to be very successful at the short-term scalping, although I am getting more educated (and appreciative of sharings like Clive's book, thank you). My very best trade was one I actually FORGOT I had made: way, way back there you might find a post from me saying "dollar sucks, euro sucks, time to go long on the pound?" to which a poster replied "time to kill myself" (cable had burned him badly). I bought a bunch at ~1.57, and it piddled around for a long time, and I stopped watching it until-- holy crap-- I saw it was almost to 1.64 and flipped it to short, 600+ pips on the upside and then 250 on the downside, but, that was over a month. Kiwi I bought around 81 cents with a stop-loss at 80 and a limit at 84, and after a while I realized it was never going to make 84 and sold it a bit over 82, didn't flip to short (oh well) but that was nice too, again over weeks; meanwhile in the real account I buy a little kiwi or sell a little kiwi for a couple hours every now and then, and I think the net result has been about zero.
Originally Posted by Alejandro Zambrano
And yes, Paul, I see that the market response is not always "proportionate" to the news; I have seen that both ways, not just major news seemingly shrugged off, but giant spikes after what seems fairly piddling. But here's a weird bit of news: I can't find which Greek politician said this, but the quote was "We tricked the Europeans into thinking we were the ancient Athenians, when really, we are the Byzantines." New Democrats are considering allowing Syriza to form a minority government, by giving their pledge to abstain rather than vote No Confidence on them. This of course is in the cynical hope that Syriza's policies will be disastrous for the country. If the Communists also abstain (likely, although they won't "join"; the Nazis of course are a solid No), then Syriza+Demar+Anel could survive with only 104 Yes votes, with or without Pasok. The neutering of Pasok would be an added bonus for ND, and an outright splintering of Pasok would be their "target 2"; Tzipras would like the endorsement of some factions of Pasok as well as some of the parties who didn't get seats, for the cover of being able to say that his "minority" government was speaking for a majority of the voters. Could be an interesting day tomorrow.
05-08-2012, 09:17 PM #74173
I have to admit. I gotta good laugh out of this.
Originally Posted by Fx(MIA)
05-08-2012, 11:07 PM #74174
Post a coupla charts showing where you entered those losing trades mate. Maybe we can show you what you did wrong. Maybe.
Originally Posted by Sim3
Never rush a trade. Make haste slowly.
05-09-2012, 02:20 AM #74175