Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

Originally Posted by fazi

very true,

monthly chart - kijun sen has been respected and rejected (unlike the past 3 years)- this could mean bear market has commenced its arrival.

One more thing - two consequent long legged dojis(hammers) followed by negation to the downside. Last time I saw such thing was on UJ weekly chart in 2008.

Patryk

The location of the formation is different and the location is the most important. In UJ that was at the top of a run, this one is sort of in the middle of nowhere near the low of the current leg. And, alas, the month is still young.

I personally would love it go down against the pound, for obvious reasons...

2933 close enough?

Originally Posted by turmaz

hi there traders!

as far as gaps are concerned, the gap strategy says if you dont fill me in 1 or 2 or max 3 session then wait for another minimum 10 sessions to fill it up, so in this current session i suspect we will go down and on friday more down im eying 1.2770xx,

i might be totally wrong i just shared my gap theory and cut short is risk/money management is the "holy grail" of this business.

trade safe!

Friday is a trendy day. You may be completely right about this. I'm offering an alternative view, and most importantly, my preference! All the best!

(ps: You don't need to be expert to get the next 10 pips right..., 20 pips may be a little challenging)

Originally Posted by trend2

I need someone to advise me either to bu or sell this pait

We do not provide specific trading advice such as entry, stop placement, trade size, profit target and the like. Rather we teach people how to use Technical Analysis, Fundamental analysis, etc. so they can learn how to look for higher probability trading opportunities.

What I can tell you is that the bias on the EURUSD pair after checking the Daily, 4 hour and the 1 hour charts is bearish. So a trader could be looking for selling opportunities if/when price takes out a previous low.

Originally Posted by ericwong

Hi Robert - you mentioned that if this Friday' sconsumer confidence shows a downtick, it could spur huge EUR/USD uptick. I thought that it would spur the stock market downtick and inversely spur a USD uptick. Could you clarify again. Thanks.

Currently what makes people sell off big batches of dollars is any hint that the Fed could get more expansionist. The thinking is that the Fed is looking for excuses to do so, and any bad economic number just might be that excuse. It seems like somewhat paranoid thinking (the Fed actually has hardly changed policy a hair and isn't likely to turn on a dime) but sooner or later a major Fed easing may indeed come, so maybe it isn't totally paranoid.

Originally Posted by Franosh

Manesh Patel's book is really overhyped and overpriced, if you want it, I will happily sell it on at a friendly discount....

A better one is by one Nicole Elliott "Ichimoku Charts: An introduction to Ichimoku clouts". The link is included below.

But in fact, it's all rather simple, you can do equally well if not better by going to some free websites:

An Introduction To Ichimoku Charts In Forex Trading
Introduction - IchiWiki - The Definitive Reference to the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Charting System
Ichimoku Clouds - ChartSchool - StockCharts.com
http://www.tuvanduyanh.com/Download/...o%20Clouds.pdf

Let's just be honest and fair, this is not the best thing since sliced bread for trading, for that nothing can beat price action and market geometry which are both a lot more difficult to learn and put in practice. If you like trading with precision and tight stops, Ichi is not for you, but can be very useful as an easy glance of trends/sentiments.

Your're right about Patel's book... I got it at a Community College finance course.

One thing to point out is that there are a lot of YouTube's on Ichimoku out there, some better some worse. And I agree it's one tool in the box of tools.
Patel gives all his videos away for free on YouTube to go along with the book but you can use free references to go along with the vids.

My 2 pips.

-Rod

Originally Posted by Franosh

With hindsight all is clear and easy. With the last down leg on 4H, when the price was just moving/developing, selling on a tenkan-kijun sen cross would mean big stops. And it's a waste of pippage to trade only certain legs especially on 1H and 4H. I like Ichi for a quick glance of sentiment but not for trade entry, but prefer other ways that get me better trades.

I never count legs or use any type of waves in any of my trading. In my opinion and furthermore for MY STYLE of trading it just causes confusion. I honestly from the bottom of my heart have no faith in any Elliot wave theory. The way my brain works just shows me a million counts for every chart I see. Thats just too much for me. Obviously some people are very successful in this matter, but again for MY STYLE its just not for me. However in the case of reviewing the chart you posted, yes hind-site is easy, but that's why you have to trust the indicator. I personally didnt see the crossover because I try to cover about 6 pairs constantly, however a wide stop isnt always necessarily needed. Once I see the cross in the direction of the trend I put the stop above that candle and go from there, sometimes its a breakout and sometimes I lose but I never ichi trade very heavy. I save my heavy lots for scalping. Long term trades I just dont have the heart to stand it when its a heavy trade. Cheers sir. Good see hear how everyone uses their own styles with the same indicators as others. Thats what its all about!!

Originally Posted by fazi

oh - going down the sea trench is full of familiar bottoming patterns - you fall, you hit the rocky slope and you bounce, and you fall again

with a lack of faith there is a place for uncertainty - it is very interesting from a linguistic point of view.

Patryk

Real rate differentials:

Originally Posted by Robert Eckert

Currently what makes people sell off big batches of dollars is any hint that the Fed could get more expansionist. The thinking is that the Fed is looking for excuses to do so, and any bad economic number just might be that excuse. It seems like somewhat paranoid thinking (the Fed actually has hardly changed policy a hair and isn't likely to turn on a dime) but sooner or later a major Fed easing may indeed come, so maybe it isn't totally paranoid.

Bernanke is a student of the great depression. But he also wants to make sure the FED does not become involved in politics. He has stated his tool box is about empty.This tells me, he has one bullet left. It would have to get pretty bad for him to start QE3 just before the US elections. He does not want to swing the elections in any direction, or give the appearance that the FED favors one candidate over another. You think its bearish now, and easy to trade. If our congress, and Pres. continue to run with staggering debt. All in the US will suffer from it. I think Bernanke is hoping for change in DC. Where Dem's and Repub's can come together, and reduce the national debt.

Edit: I hope your short EURO Robert. I would hate to add you to my list of trading losses. LOL

Originally Posted by Franosh

Manesh Patel's book is really overhyped and overpriced, if you want it, I will happily sell it on at a friendly discount....

A better one is by one Nicole Elliott "Ichimoku Charts: An introduction to Ichimoku clouts". The link is included below.

But in fact, it's all rather simple, you can do equally well if not better by going to some free websites:

An Introduction To Ichimoku Charts In Forex Trading
Introduction - IchiWiki - The Definitive Reference to the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Charting System
Ichimoku Clouds - ChartSchool - StockCharts.com
http://www.tuvanduyanh.com/Download/...o%20Clouds.pdf

Let's just be honest and fair, this is not the best thing since sliced bread for trading, for that nothing can beat price action and market geometry which are both a lot more difficult to learn and put in practice. If you like trading with precision and tight stops, Ichi is not for you, but can be very useful as an easy glance of trends/sentiments.

cheers, thanks for that.
i have no doubt that this signal, used correctly, will be very profitable.
unfortunately i have the attention span of a newt so i will stick to my 'trading strategy for idiots' that seems to work
i am following 4 pairs and my brain really struggles with multi-tasking

Price has formed itself within a descending wedge and I'm of the view that 2882-85 to form a temp base for a move higher and possibly closing the gap..
USD forming itself within a sharp looking ascending channel and 10015 possibly looking to top out..
GU 6170-75 a decent resis and price on 8 hrs forming itself where if it breaks the supp around 6088-90 is getting dragged within a diamond formation and hence would then be declining further to under 59XX lvl..
Current best supp under 6088-90 is 6040..

GL...

AUD just tested main and critical supp and if breaks have a channel supp at 9945-50.... this later figure is also a confirmation of a breakout of 10015 lvl........
As we have seen earlier like swissy ( not anymore though due to the force and silent intervention) AUD reflects the mood swing of the USD..

Make it or break it...

GL..

Pivot was already tested and profits taken and S1.
It's possible we'll see another test of the pivot or close by to sell for S2. The trend is intact below 1.2970.

Originally Posted by turmaz

EDIT: or should close under 2929
atm 2949

2962/65 should cap the today's high down side 2860/65 straight