Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

Originally Posted by Alejandro Zambrano

Nice I want to know more - where did you read about this?

Here's an article that gives examples.

Would a Greek default be automatic doom? - MarketWatch

The support zone at 1.2825 (analysed in EUR/USD Market Analysis (14.05.12)) which held the market in the yesterday and in the Asian session (got tested) could not hold a second time and got broken recently.

On the 5 min chart above, we might interpret the price action in the Asian session today as an inverted Head & Shoulder. The neckline got broken and the market went up to 1.2869. The circled consolidation on the right of the chart took place at the support level created by the green trendline, the inverted H&S neckline, the 61.80 % fib retracement of the recent swing up and the 100 % fib extension from wave A-B moved to point C at about 1.2840. The market consolidated there (typical 3 swing) and in the following market could not hold support so that price broke down strongly (probably due to news...).

Chart Analysis Forex (EUR/USD)

Originally Posted by SharonSS

Here's an article that gives examples.

Would a Greek default be automatic doom? - MarketWatch

Market does not like uncertainty, but not necessarily bad news. If it's clear what's going to happen with all the back-and-forth nonsense, things might have a much better chance.

Originally Posted by Luxuriant

It will be good for Greece also. History has shown that after a country defaults, its stock market doubles, or triples with in 3 years. I believe today the Greece market is at an all time low.

denominated in what currency though?

Originally Posted by MysticMegatron

denominated in what currency though?

US$ rumoured!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-...ency-us-dollar

Originally Posted by Alejandro Zambrano

Nice I want to know more - where did you read about this?

I did not read this anywhere. Lets look at some charts.
Argentina defaulted in 2001
Argentina Stock Market 500 to 1200 in 3 years (Set the chart from 2001)
Russia 1998
Russia Stock Market You get the picture. (set the chart from 1998)

Here is a link if you want to check the markets of other defaulting countries. What happens the crash causes companies to be under valued. I would throw out dictatorships though.

http://mitpress.mit.edu/books/chapte...5534chapm1.pdf Page 7 for list of defaults


Edit: Let me ask you this question. If the US Gov. defaulted tomorrow. (God forbid) and the S&P 500 hit an all time low. Lets say 400. Think about the 500 companies listed. Would you not be a buyer?

Originally Posted by Clivewaverider

Any thoughts on VIX/stocks reaction to this lot Mary?

The VIX did spike up out of its bollinger band tradiing range yesterday which could be part of the catalyst for a slight rebound in risk appetite. But I think we are still in a downward trend so I would use this as an opportunity to short

Originally Posted by SharonSS

Here's an article that gives examples.

Would a Greek default be automatic doom? - MarketWatch

No one really knows - that's the problem. It could potentially be very bad

Originally Posted by MOZI32

lowered all stop at 1.2825 and thanks market for either 1.2710 or 1.2825

lowered all stops 1.2795 and limit still 1.2710

EUR/USD shows us the money!!!

Originally Posted by rcopadilla

That RSI is getting to the extreme oversold zone where more downside can be expected. Keep things simple and Sell any bounce.

A Dead Cat Bounce should occur followed by more down action to the lower BB300.

had to nip out for a while - did i miss anything?

Originally Posted by MysticMegatron

denominated in what currency though?

Good question. I would think they would peg to a reserve currency. Providing they use their own currency. Argentina pegged its peso to the US dollar after it defaulted. Argentina could get no one to buy its bonds, and years later I believe it paid 1/3 of the debt it defaulted on. Its all speculation. Who knows what will happen.

Edit: After thinking about it. Maybe they would peg to the EURO. Look at the US. Its nice to print your own money, and set your own rates. But not paying your bills is a problem.

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

It's that Time Again Folks. Since we don't have Real time SSI, let's do the
LIGHTNING ROUND

Only tell us if you are Long, Flat or Short the Euro or another currency pair

No chart is needed and if you have a spare moment, tell us your entry price, stop and Limit.

This is just a real fun and fast posting!

Enjoy!

I am Flat Euro exited too early 1.2840!

Been holding short since before the weekend, and with the real-money account am playing this drop dangerously, adding to short position whenever there is a little more leverage to spare, moving the stops down and down to lock in more and more profit. This could be the free-fall I have been waiting for.

Last week Samaras, Tzipras, and Venizelos did not use up their whole three-day mandates, declaring failure as soon as it was clear they couldn't do it, so as to give President Papoulias the option to call elections on Saturday for June 3 after a pro-forma effort to meet the parties. Instead Papoulias decided to take his job seriously and spend his whole three days bashing heads together, which had no effect except to push the election date back a week, to keep the uncertainty going a little longer. I posted on Sunday that the talks were really over (the Independents wouldn't meet Papoulias any more; Communists and Nazis of course were out already) and that the meeting called for Monday was just going through the motions: on Monday morning the Radicals said they wouldn't even attend, which took it down to three parties meeting, New Dems and Pasok helpless without Dem Left, who still said they wouldn't join without the Radicals, who weren't there. So why ANYBODY in the market was surprised by this news is astonishing to me.

Venizelos issued a pompous posturing statement, "We are headed to new elections under very bad circumstances, because certain persons have put their short-term party interests ahead of the nation's interests." On internet chat-boards this is what is technically known as "butthurt". The Pasok party is likely to collapse as voters see the choice as between the New Dems and the Radicals (of course there will still be a lot of people attached to their particular minor parties, but the Nazi block should shrink, since I think a lot of the Golden Dawn ballots were just protest votes and this time there will be a clearer choice). Syriza will not get an outright majority but is bound to finish 1st and form the government; the austerity agreement is dead and the euro-exit a near certainty.

Nice channel on H4 timeframe.