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View Poll Results: What impact will the ECB Rate Decision have on the Euro?

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71. This poll is closed
  • Send Euro Higher!

    19 26.76%
  • Send the Euro Lower!

    48 67.61%
  • Will have no effect.

    4 5.63%
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Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

  1. #74761
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    EURUSD

    Regression channel target zone - in a perfect world that is!

    Catch up later night and see how this is panning out - nothing else I can share right now.
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst-tz.jpg  

    Daily Journal & 'Lines in the Sky' are located at http://iquaestor.blogspot.co.uk/

  2. #74762
    biggari's Avatar
    biggari is offline Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by jbiggart View Post
    One of the uk's most successful restaurateurs was on telly at the weekend. He reacons that to be successful in his business he should always try and look at it through the eyes of his customers and not get stuck in the rut of his own ego.
    I suppose trading is similar. We should try and make money from what the market is doing rather than trying to make money from what we think it should be doing.
    well i'm happily pip +'ve so far this week.
    (sorry - couldnt help myself - think i've got a personality flaw)
    Clivewaverider likes this.
    good analysis is easy

    making money from your analysis is a whole new ball game

  3. #74763
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    Quote Originally Posted by turmaz View Post
    yeah im married too and well trained in catching the falling knives and also some times throwing it back up saying "ouch" it hurts and then getting away

    lols
    lol... if i end up throwing back, I better make it count else I won't be around to post anything any further....
    I like to go with odds in my favor.......... mins 50/50............... what u r suggesting is 0/100........... 0 in my favor..
    I would have to delete this later for the SHE HITLER may browse thru it later.............

    GL...
    biggari and turmaz like this.
    Patience is virtue. The sooner we learn this all, sooner we can start walking to the bank. Good Luck to all of us—
    The trick is to wait the price meet ur limits, instead of one jumping in.. however scalps is a totally different scenario and is not everyone's cup of tea
    Disclaimer: I'm not at all suggesting trades when by either posting the graphs, or my entries. You can view it, but in the end you have to use your own logic and approach, as there is no certainty about this uncertain market...

  4. #74764
    stryker's Avatar
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    Euppy N Geppy

    Well may have to buy the break higher on Geppy but Euppy 101.92-99-102.02 interest me..
    Did I mention I can catch multiple knives all at once... I'm trained out pretty nicely and look it comes in handy..

    GL..
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst-ej-101.90-99-hitting-em-well.jpg  

    Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst-geppy.jpg  

    jogold18 and turmaz like this.
    Patience is virtue. The sooner we learn this all, sooner we can start walking to the bank. Good Luck to all of us—
    The trick is to wait the price meet ur limits, instead of one jumping in.. however scalps is a totally different scenario and is not everyone's cup of tea
    Disclaimer: I'm not at all suggesting trades when by either posting the graphs, or my entries. You can view it, but in the end you have to use your own logic and approach, as there is no certainty about this uncertain market...

  5. #74765
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    Who bought Greek bonds? Who received free money (very low interest) from the ECB to buy Greek bonds? Hmmm. I wonder what the withdrawal rates are like at banks in Greece, and Spain?
    Have courage to look beyond the short term.

  6. #74766
    stryker's Avatar
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    gonna be adding 2710 on eu...
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst-2710-adding-bigger-one.jpg  

    Patience is virtue. The sooner we learn this all, sooner we can start walking to the bank. Good Luck to all of us—
    The trick is to wait the price meet ur limits, instead of one jumping in.. however scalps is a totally different scenario and is not everyone's cup of tea
    Disclaimer: I'm not at all suggesting trades when by either posting the graphs, or my entries. You can view it, but in the end you have to use your own logic and approach, as there is no certainty about this uncertain market...

  7. #74767
    Robert Eckert is offline Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by Franosh View Post
    I think many institutions and some governments already have contingency plans ready in the 1st quarter. JPM etc. and George the old boy certainly do.
    I'm less and less convinced of that. German ministers come out with "we want to help Greece stay in the euro" (yeah, you've been a big help so far) and "but Greece must stick to the March agreement" (what part of NO don't you understand?); from the Euro-ministers' meeting yesterday came statements "no, no, no, we are not thinking at all about a eurozone breakup" (I'm sure they are at least thinking about it, so they must mean they can't say anything now because they haven't figured out what to do). George Soros has probably prepared himself, but I'm not sure about the other big players, seems like they hedged themselves against euro-losses with options around 1.29 thinking it "couldn't" go much lower. I expected the defense of 1.28(high) to last until the expiry Friday but it has already failed. When the price is near "strike" on expiry day, it gets shoved to as nearly exact-break-even as possible, but when it is this far out of whack? Of course some big players will want to minimize their losses by shoving it back up, but their counterparties want to maximize profit by shoving it further underwater, could be some interesting (profitable or dangerous) tug-o-war on Thursday/Friday. There will be some big winners and big losers this weekend.

    And why was this a surprise to anybody? God knows I am not an expert (still not back to zero from the bath I took in March), but I was saying weeks and weeks ago that the 1.30-32 range could only hold through the end of April and would break down in early May; Spyros (whose bankroll I assume is rather smaller than JP Morgan's) specifically named the election day as the turning point. I said Sarkozy was toast and the Greek parliament would be hopelessly hung, which I thought were obvious things to say on the level of "the US race will be close but Obama is the favorite", and yet it appears that it came as a surprise; and I thought the defense of 1.28(high) would succeed because I assumed all the big money ALREADY KNEW and had priced in the self-evident fact that Greece was going to call new elections soon. As Jay Leno put it when Miss Cleo (for non-US readers: a psychic with turban and crystal ball etc. whose ads were a staple of late-night TV for years) got arrested for fraud, "Gee, who could have seen that coming?"

    I don't see good support until the January low, and that too may break heading for the "equilibrium" I guessed last March (~1.225) or purchase-power-parity (~1.1111) or maybe even parity with the dollar (~1.00) if European leaders keep fumbling around. Turmaz, I'm sorry you're having such bad days, I know your pain (I was short all through the March-April rally); myself, I've been having some wonderful days!
    Clivewaverider likes this.

  8. #74768
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    Quote Originally Posted by stryker View Post
    gonna be adding 2710 on eu...
    Banked shorts at 1.2723 - enough to be going on with. Naked long now but some milling around still to do I am sure.

    Catch up tomorrow.
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst-ed.jpg  

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  9. #74769
    Spyros's Avatar
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    Εurobond is on the way...
    buggypilot likes this.

  10. #74770
    turmaz is offline Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by stryker View Post
    gonna be adding 2710 on eu...
    me already added 2724
    lol

  11. #74771
    AV1
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    Quote Originally Posted by Robert Eckert View Post
    I'm less and less convinced of that. German ministers come out with "we want to help Greece stay in the euro" (yeah, you've been a big help so far) and "but Greece must stick to the March agreement" (what part of NO don't you understand?); from the Euro-ministers' meeting yesterday came statements "no, no, no, we are not thinking at all about a eurozone breakup" (I'm sure they are at least thinking about it, so they must mean they can't say anything now because they haven't figured out what to do). George Soros has probably prepared himself, but I'm not sure about the other big players, seems like they hedged themselves against euro-losses with options around 1.29 thinking it "couldn't" go much lower. I expected the defense of 1.28(high) to last until the expiry Friday but it has already failed. When the price is near "strike" on expiry day, it gets shoved to as nearly exact-break-even as possible, but when it is this far out of whack? Of course some big players will want to minimize their losses by shoving it back up, but their counterparties want to maximize profit by shoving it further underwater, could be some interesting (profitable or dangerous) tug-o-war on Thursday/Friday. There will be some big winners and big losers this weekend.

    And why was this a surprise to anybody? God knows I am not an expert (still not back to zero from the bath I took in March), but I was saying weeks and weeks ago that the 1.30-32 range could only hold through the end of April and would break down in early May; Spyros (whose bankroll I assume is rather smaller than JP Morgan's) specifically named the election day as the turning point. I said Sarkozy was toast and the Greek parliament would be hopelessly hung, which I thought were obvious things to say on the level of "the US race will be close but Obama is the favorite", and yet it appears that it came as a surprise; and I thought the defense of 1.28(high) would succeed because I assumed all the big money ALREADY KNEW and had priced in the self-evident fact that Greece was going to call new elections soon. As Jay Leno put it when Miss Cleo (for non-US readers: a psychic with turban and crystal ball etc. whose ads were a staple of late-night TV for years) got arrested for fraud, "Gee, who could have seen that coming?"

    I don't see good support until the January low, and that too may break heading for the "equilibrium" I guessed last March (~1.225) or purchase-power-parity (~1.1111) or maybe even parity with the dollar (~1.00) if European leaders keep fumbling around. Turmaz, I'm sorry you're having such bad days, I know your pain (I was short all through the March-April rally); myself, I've been having some wonderful days!
    Robert, I suggest you look to take profit and then reenter, or Market will take it from you. Another thing that burns us often is GREED.

  12. #74772
    MOZI32 is online now Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by MOZI32 View Post
    lowered all stops 1.2795 and limit still 1.2710
    Closed all short at 1.2725 thanks market for the ride .

    but i think we ll correct to 1.2800/2820 max for another push down to 1.2550 ( the real strong support) in my opinion . for long

    plan rest of the week will be still short near 1.28/2820 but with small lots carefully till 1.2550 then turn long for a huge up .

    Good luck
    Last edited by MOZI32; 05-15-2012 at 03:47 PM.
    SharonSS, biggari and turmaz like this.

  13. #74773
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    Quote Originally Posted by MOZI32 View Post
    Closed all short at 1.2725 thanks market for the ride .
    It has been a joy following - reminds me what I was meant to be doing!!
    MOZI32 and biggari like this.
    Daily Journal & 'Lines in the Sky' are located at http://iquaestor.blogspot.co.uk/

  14. #74774
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    Quote Originally Posted by AV1 View Post
    Robert, I suggest you look to take profit and then reenter, or Market will take it from you. Another thing that burns us often is GREED.
    This is what I'm still trying to learn. I'm usually positive many pips daily only to give 75% of it back on one bad trade. I need to learn when to call it quits.

    Morris
    AV1 likes this.

  15. #74775
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    Quote Originally Posted by turmaz View Post
    me already added 2724
    lol
    as i said earlier if we close on hourly candle under 2738 then there is 50/50 chance we might go to the next support at 2666/71 before any bounce but i bought at 2724 taking 50% chance that we may get a bounce here somewhere b4 2666, gold is making of newer lows and sky is falling
    trade safe!
    buggypilot likes this.

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