Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

Originally Posted by jbiggart

looks like someone just flicked a card out from the base of Greece's stack. back to wait n see mode

Down about 60+ pips suddenly and reversed direction almost immediately

supose if the Americans don't want to see an over valued USD and the Europeans don't want to see a crashing Euro we can expect intervention insome form or other

Originally Posted by Rasputin

What will the FED say? If the news is positive, couldn't we see risk on? OR will USD rally continue with gold and oil dropping more...?

It will say blah blah blah nothing nothing nothing. And this isn't even what the Fed "will say": it is a release of what they said in their meeting three weeks ago, and should have no relevance at all since it won't send us back in a time machine to change their non-action at the meeting, and as for the updated insights into their positions, we have heard them speak more recently.

Naturally, therefore, it will cause a huge uproar in the market. Last month the FOMC report hit the EUR/USD like a sledgehammer.

In actual news, Merkel and Hollande made soothing noises about the Greek crisis, that of course the rest of Europe should be thinking about helping Greece to grow, and not just about squeezing out of them every euro owed to the banks. There was a subtle difference I noted, though: Hollande said "we will respect the outcome of the elections, whoever Greece chooses"; while Merkel said, "Whether to stay in the euro is what Greece will be voting on." Since Syriza has not said they want to leave the euro, although their anti-austerity position may make it more difficult to stay, Merkel was essentially saying "If you vote for the party we don't like, we will boot you." That was rather disrespectful, and will not play well in Greece.

In an ironic contrast, the Social Democrats in Germany, who do favor the ESM ("Stabilization Mechanism" bailout fund), are nonetheless threatening to hold up its approval (for German constitutional reasons, it requires a supermajority, and Merkel's coalition cannot pass it without opposition support) unless Merkel agrees to more stimulus spending; the same day they came out with this, Speaker Boehner in the US threatened to hold up the debt ceiling authorization (potentially shutting down the government) unless Obama agrees to less stimulus spending.

Originally Posted by jbiggart

looks like someone just flicked a card out from the base of Greece's stack. back to wait n see mode

JENGA! JENGA! JENGA!

Originally Posted by Clivewaverider

Just been adding daily,weekly and monthly bolls to my daily chart - do you just keep with 'simple' setting on a 20/2 rather than exponenstial, smoothed etc?

Yes, the moving average is the simple one.

Originally Posted by rcopadilla

Yes, the moving average is the simple one.

Thank you rcopadilla

Originally Posted by jbiggart

supose if the Americans don't want to see an over valued USD and the Europeans don't want to see a crashing Euro we can expect intervention insome form or other

I agree, BUT:
Chinese, NOT American: they want a weak usd to get a weak CNY the exports;
The intervention will be very likely once the cross is very close to 1.25 and surrounds...

Robert, what do you reacon you will trade after the Euro hits 0.00 and you eventually close your short position?

recorded a 30 pip wick?

I hope this points the way for the next 100 or so pips....then??

jbiggart I don't think we'll see 1 to 1 any time soon as that would set the Euro Zone back a little to far IMHO.

I hope the outflow in Greece slows as it's a storm in the making if the ECB plays out these tactics it well may come back to bite them.

WOW a 30 pip wick on the m5....

-Rod

London session review and outlook May 16 - 2012
Review of markets covered in today's edition of Bulls vs. Bears: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, FTSE100, S&P500, Gold, Brent Crude and WTI.




Regards

Alejandro Zambrano
Currency Strategist | DailyFX Forum (London)
azambrano@fxcm.com

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I saw a couple posts about the FED. Bernanke is not speaking. Bullard is speaking. He is anti QE3. Does not believe in more QE. Its a release of the minutes. They will save their last bullet till its get real bad. If it is an event it will cause a stronger dollar with voting showing no QE3, and dovish outlook.

Originally Posted by buggypilot

recorded a 30 pip wick?

I hope this points the way for the next 100 or so pips....then??

jbiggart I don't think we'll see 1 to 1 any time soon as that would set the Euro Zone back a little to far IMHO.

I hope the outflow in Greece slows as it's a storm in the making if the ECB plays out these tactics it well may come back to bite them.

WOW a 30 pip wick on the m5....

-Rod

I am playing that spike down as a 'b' wave in a 4th wave up. So in theory, we should get a nice 5 wave uphill to complete before the 5th wave back down again. Well, that is my take on it anyways.

ppl here so much about politics and different countries doing this and doing that, and specially news effect on the currencies, i feel that ppl kinda like to trade on news and most of them lose at the end of the day. all i want to say is very less ppl share different strategies and the reasons behind their trades the technical reasons. in my 250 posts have you ppl ever noticed i talked about "NEWS" never. because market are not driven by news yes i agree they have "impact".
back in those day i recall when give allot of attention to news and always watching news, reuters, cnbc, do u know what the result was my frustration getting bigger and my account getting smaller day by day and when i stopped watching and talking news and its impact on the market my frustration getting smaller and my account getting larger day by day. its all present in the charts.

the theme and moral of the above "crap story" is ppl share strategies and tell/find technical reasons for every trade.

Originally Posted by Clivewaverider

I am playing that spike down as a 'b' wave in a 4th wave up. So in theory, we should get a nice 5 wave uphill to complete before the 5th wave back down again. Well, that is my take on it anyways.

Even better would of course be the favourite ascending triangle to ride my short cover up behind. All good, if not a little tiring.

Just an observation about how were in a bear market. I own shares of TGT to hold for the long term. Last QTR after great earnings, and guidance. Shares rose over 2%. They just reported this morning for this QTR. Increased earnings, and raised guidance again. Shares are up .5% Tomorrow I expect to lose that small gain!