Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

Targets for wave 4 if wave 4 in play:

If we have had a & b, then 1 & 2 of c, today, then:

1. The 1.62 extension of a-b is 1.2813
2. The current 1.62 extension of 1-2 of c is 1.2821
3. Today's R1 was 1.2824
4. The 23.8% retracement of the whole move down from 1.3284, is 1.2823

Proposed target for C wave of wave 4 before next tumble is the cluster 1.2813-1.2823.

Charts messy and not posted.

After so much down force and no breaks, I also prefer to stay sidelined and wait for a decent pullback to enter short, as swimming against the current in this marked could be dangerous.
Looking to re-enter on USDJPY as re-tests former RES at 80.10/15.

Originally Posted by jbiggart

Robert, what do you reacon you will trade after the Euro hits 0.00 and you eventually close your short position?

i think what i was trying to find out in my annoying sarcstic way is how you choose entry and exit points for your trade.

i try and find a trending pair and enter a trade in the direction of the trade at 50% and exit when it has reached a reasonable extension. then wait for the next retracement and repeat.

although i am interested in the fundementals that are driving the trend i dont need to understand them to trade this strategy. i just have to ensure that it is in a trend.

there is no doubt that your research into and understanding of the fundimentals is giving you the correct directional bias in your trading. how do you decide when to exit and re-enter a trade? for eg. how much lower do you believe eu/us can fall - when will you believe that it has found its level and its time to take profits?

thanks

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Hello Traders! I have changed the poll as the Euro is closing in on our 1.2600 target.

Does the Euro thread talk too much about politics and new? Please take a moment to answer the poll.

well i think its near to balanced so its hard for me to vote, i was just watching your pip and run aka pip star, its great presentation, but im kinda med term trader i do trade short term when short term i see at least 100 pip run,
but for scalping you need to have an eagle eye and strike on any news

wel i just voted yes! we should talk about strategies

Originally Posted by Alejandro Zambrano

Almost 100% of that gap was filed. Why do you crave for more ? I certainly think that we can get a bounce as we are reaching the 1.26 level which is a major low - but I can guarantee you that no professional is buying due to the gap

Alejandro i think you did not catch my point, im referring to the gaps from the last 2 Sundays. my point is about how merkel showing flexibility towards Greece now takes some of the bearish wind out of the time from now till the new greek elections. That being said if we starting making trend line or other technical breaks on the dollar and the euro towards a retrace, without some more bearish facts to keep the panic going that we have had the last 2 weeks we will revisit these gaps/levels. the gaps are important levels on the charts pinpointing event risk areas, what we saw today is the expectations of these events to be a bit exaggerated. I can assure you professionals are looking at them as they also occurred at important technical levels ( 2900, 3080 ). these will be key areas to sell from and see how the market reacts when they are revisited.

Originally Posted by Clivewaverider

Targets for wave 4 if wave 4 in play:

If we have had a & b, then 1 & 2 of c, today, then:

1. The 1.62 extension of a-b is 1.2813
2. The current 1.62 extension of 1-2 of c is 1.2821
3. Today's R1 was 1.2824
4. The 23.8% retracement of the whole move down from 1.3284, is 1.2823

Proposed target for C wave of wave 4 before next tumble is the cluster 1.2813-1.2823.

Charts messy and not posted.

No time to post a chart, but today's correction should bring another low in 1.2600ish territory to finish 3rd wave that started at 1.3280 and then 4th wave. This is what I think.

Originally Posted by turmaz

wel i just voted yes! we should talk about strategies

turmaz, I don't understand your problem. You have posted charts showing and explaining what you're looking at which I have found valuable and copied your multiple BBs for my setups and targets.

No one is saying one can't post strategies so it appears you simply want to stop any other dialogue. Gregory has pointed out there is a Strategy Thread so it's not like you have to stay in this thread although you would be missed.

Perhaps Gregory could set it up so the Strategy Thread could have topics regarding specific EURO/USD, Gold, AUD, etc. and that would make all of you that don't like this thread happy.

Personally, I'm not interested in anything except EUR/USD which this thread is suppose to be, but I don't complain when others post about other symbols including Gold which you have also done.

BTW, I find those posts by others living in Europe giving their opinion about the EURO/Greece issue and sharing news invaluable adding to my understanding. It all works together - at least for me.

Originally Posted by jbiggart

i think what i was trying to find out in my annoying sarcstic way is how you choose entry and exit points for your trade.

i try and find a trending pair and enter a trade in the direction of the trade at 50% and exit when it has reached a reasonable extension. then wait for the next retracement and repeat.

although i am interested in the fundementals that are driving the trend i dont need to understand them to trade this strategy. i just have to ensure that it is in a trend.

there is no doubt that your research into and understanding of the fundimentals is giving you the correct directional bias in your trading. how do you decide when to exit and re-enter a trade? for eg. how much lower do you believe eu/us can fall - when will you believe that it has found its level and its time to take profits?

thanks

I'm quite haphazard about my entry/exit points I'm afraid; I don't have the technical chops to do very well on that. I look at what Alejandro, Paul Chin, stryker, and clivewaverider have to say. I used to have a grip on daily rhythms, but these are changeable: for a long time the BoJ would step in during Tokyo session and buy up dollars, and I could see when it started and grab a quick 20 pips reliably, but that has stopped; EUR/USD used to have big buyers during Tokyo sessio,n so that is when I would take euro shorts out and play yen or little-dollars, but that has stopped. My impression of the stopping point for the euro drop is still low 1.20's (anything down to 1.1x is panic drop and should quickly retrace), but of course that won't happen in one move. Last night I took off euro shorts at start of Asia session, expecting that would be the recovery, but it wasn't happening so I got back in it; when it was down to 1.267x I increased short position, rooting for a 1.2625 (Jan low) touch, but ended up cashing out at 1.2712, less great than it could have been. Today in advance of the FOMC I managed to grab the absolute top of a 10-pip long wick on the minute candle, selling at 1.2747 when it had been 2730's mostly, but that was just luck in the middle of the chop. I will stay up again for the Asians tonight, either get out if there seem to be updrafts or just leave a stop that locks in plus-ness and sleep through London session, stop limit at 1.2600 since I don't think a break below the Jan low can hold for long until there is more momentum.

Newsiness: a skim of FOMC minutes finds little surprising. Locker still a hawkish dissident, voted against the (non-binding) projection that rock-bottom interest rates should be left in place into 2014, also against swaps with Mexico and Canada, a long-standing program that violates his aversion to any forex involvement; the minor Fed intervention into Italian/Spanish bonds a while back (mercy-buying the last few bits of undersubscribed paper) will not be repeated. Vote was for net-neutrality on Treasuries with a shift to long-term paper, directing that short-term paper be sold or allowed to mature in exactly balancing quantities; no goosing of the money supply. Geithner says debt-ceiling won't need to go up until after November election, leaving Boehner's call for a rerun of last summer's standoff looking even more stupid than before. Expect more bank runs in Greece tomorrow: ECB says things are fine now, but I doubt that will be believed on the streets; it is unnerving that there isn't even the caretaker government in place (Papademos doesn't want to stay on, and who can blame him, and there is a shortage of volunteers) and the election date can't even be set until then (June 10 may slip to June 17 if they can't get their act together). Loved this comment on a Bloomberg thread:

"This period seems to me like that feeling you have when you are sick. You know you are going to vomit. You can feel it. And its only getting worse. You try to watch TV or walk around, anything to distract your mind and hope the nausea will pass. But it doesn't and finally you are kneeling in front of the toilet waiting and dreading it. Just go throw up. Throw up a lot. Retch the contagion of living above your means out of your system and get back to normal. The faster you do it the better you will feel and all that much sooner."

Originally Posted by AV1

No time to post a chart, but today's correction should bring another low in 1.2600ish territory to finish 3rd wave that started at 1.3280 and then 4th wave. This is what I think.

No worries. Thanks for the heads up! I appreciate your posts!

Originally Posted by turmaz

well i think its near to balanced so its hard for me to vote, i was just watching your pip and run aka pip star, its great presentation, but im kinda med term trader i do trade short term when short term i see at least 100 pip run,
but for scalping you need to have an eagle eye and strike on any news

Hello Turmaz, the poll is running 4:1 that the thread is balanced. I normally avoid trading news. The BOE inflation report happened to coincide with today's presentation. Usually that hour before the UK lunch is fairly tame. I can get 20 to 30 trades a day and a roughly 10 pips each, you can do the math. But I am flat with no overnight exposure. But it fits my personality. There are many ways up a mountain and I respect and honor all paths.

Originally Posted by Robert Eckert

Just go throw up. Throw up a lot. Retch the contagion of living above your means out of your system and get back to normal. The faster you do it the better you will feel and all that much sooner."

I would think that 'contagion of living above your means' is unfortunately already a huge tumor deeply rooted in the system across many countries. Throwing up won't get rid of it. Need scalpels. But the cancer cells are already so wide spread in the system, not sure they can be so easily taken out.

Originally Posted by Franosh

I would think that 'contagion of living above your means' is unfortunately already a huge tumor deeply rooted in the system across many countries. Throwing up won't get rid of it. Need scalpels. But the cancer cells are already so wide spread in the system, not sure they can be so easily taken out.

bit gorry, but to the point and absolutely right.

can someone click the 'like' button on one of my posts. think it might be broken

Originally Posted by SharonSS

turmaz, I don't understand your problem. You have posted charts showing and explaining what you're looking at which I have found valuable and copied your multiple BBs for my setups and targets.

No one is saying one can't post strategies so it appears you simply want to stop any other dialogue. Gregory has pointed out there is a Strategy Thread so it's not like you have to stay in this thread although you would be missed.

Perhaps Gregory could set it up so the Strategy Thread could have topics regarding specific EURO/USD, Gold, AUD, etc. and that would make all of you that don't like this thread happy.

Personally, I'm not interested in anything except EUR/USD which this thread is suppose to be, but I don't complain when others post about other symbols including Gold which you have also done.

BTW, I find those posts by others living in Europe giving their opinion about the EURO/Greece issue and sharing news invaluable adding to my understanding. It all works together - at least for me.

thumbs up mate!
i have no problem i was just saying. this thread is "discuss EUR/USD News with dailyFX analyst"
actually i forgot; my suggestion is with technical we can spice this thread up more, i dont want any one to miss me as no one knows who im. i see sometimes gold in co relation with fibre as most of the traders take SNP also as a co relation.

and here is the news

half of the eurozone is in a depression. 1 of 3 things are needed for a strong currency. natural resources (commodities). or strong banking or manufacturing. the ez can scratch the first 2...
you left with manufacturing mostly in France Italy Germany and sold out and other zones are in depression too.
raising prices to the rest world is not going to help the france/italy/germans
they are paying about 10% more for energy now compared to the so called good times in early 2008.

euro zone wasn't booming when euro hit the high 1.6038 in august 2008 and with in 3 months euro zone wasn't collapsing when hit the lows 2300s

then whats the point figure it out mate!
trade safe!

Excerpt:
QUOTE=turmaz;1149016]
… i dont want any one to miss me as no one knows who im….
QUOTE]


Well, I'd miss you as I enjoy your charts and input along with others.

Since you have the EZ problems in a nutshell doesn't mean others don't have opinions. Gregory has it right whether Strategies or information: "I respect and honor all paths."