Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

No worries. Thanks for the heads up! I appreciate your posts!

We are in the same place AV1 - i reckon we must be in wave 4 of 3 - just there is a low above and the bottom of the triangle that cooincides with a slightly deeper retracement as above figures. I obviously have no say in what will actually happen but 'hope' for 1.2813 ish before 5 of 3 down, although it is looking like a triangle sidewards at the moment.

As far as I can tell, wave 2 must have been almost downhill, so wave 4 (of the whole wave, not 3) should be worth a deeper retracement later.

We shall see.

Hey All
Do you agree on this one ,, May be a little bit of retracement then BANG !!! ~400 pips up !!!

this gonna mean a nose dive for the E/U as well .. Consistent with EW wave 3 down

Happy Trading for All ))

Originally Posted by psperos

Alejandro i think you did not catch my point, im referring to the gaps from the last 2 Sundays. my point is about how merkel showing flexibility towards Greece now takes some of the bearish wind out of the time from now till the new greek elections. That being said if we starting making trend line or other technical breaks on the dollar and the euro towards a retrace, without some more bearish facts to keep the panic going that we have had the last 2 weeks we will revisit these gaps/levels. the gaps are important levels on the charts pinpointing event risk areas, what we saw today is the expectations of these events to be a bit exaggerated. I can assure you professionals are looking at them as they also occurred at important technical levels ( 2900, 3080 ). these will be key areas to sell from and see how the market reacts when they are revisited.

The 2 gaps..... always in my mind.... affecting my judgements badly... it will not be forgotten.... traders always remember those levels. Where they fought and lose.

Currently long on EURUSD, trying to scalp it up as it tries to brake above MA.
Same for the USDJPY, a bit wider stop as this should be my entry for a long run with add-ons on the way, earlier I had a lot long but got scared and took just 10 pip profit.
Played a hunch with the gold - shorted from the TL but don't feel good about it ...time will show.

Good trades!
MAXJOY

Originally Posted by Maged Soliman

Hey All
Do you agree on this one ,, May be a little bit of retracement then BANG !!! ~400 pips up !!!

this gonna mean a nose dive for the E/U as well .. Consistent with EW wave 3 down

Happy Trading for All ))

It seems many people are banking on it's a wave 3. I don't know, but I am more inclined to Clive's view, that dollar index (the main one, not fxcm dollar) looks more like a c of B wave. Bonds are up, but USD/JPY is holding up. Perhaps nothing is really what it seems.

Edit: added a couple of charts.

Originally Posted by Robert Eckert

I'm quite haphazard about my entry/exit points I'm afraid; I don't have the technical chops to do very well on that.

u REALLY dont have to have alot of technical indies to be profitable. i love your comment (and others too) when you talk about fundamental's, so first off, keep that up

on a technical side, if u not to sure, or you have not found any indicator that you feel comfy with, do what i did (thou now, my system is complicated filled with MA, pivots, indies) when i first started trading. find an indicator that indicates "where" the trend is. up, or down? ill mention what i first used. it was a 200MA. over and over i kept hearing everyone talk about the 200, the 200, the 200.

sooooo!!! i did just that. i "tried" trading with just the 200MA. but then came a problem, a big problem. i learnt that you can use the MA's as support or resis. if price was below, sell and only sell. if price was above, buy and only buy.

i tried doing just that, but no matter what i did i kept on losing money. i had a problem, not with the indicator, but with my self, psychologically speaking.

u know they say, "the trend is your friend"? well the fact is, most people trade against the trend and that included me. no matter what i did i kept on buying even tho price was below the 200. i told my self, its going up, its going up, buy buy, but heck IT WAS FREEKINGGGGG BELOW THE 200MA.
if u (or anyone for that matter) can short "CONSISTENTLY" while the price is below the 200, most people will be on there way to there billion dollar mark. i posted a chart below to show you such a simple tool by it self can give you so many pips, but most of us fail.

how do you know when to buy? u dont. u only buy when price get above the 200MA which so far it has not, so thus, its still a short......... (of course u can develop a system with just the 200MA and using diff time frames as part of your strategy) heck stick in there stocastic indi to show u when to sell.......



i think for the most part in trading, i have learnt not from my success, but from my failure.

successful traders seek out there weaknesses and learn when they fail. unsuccessful ones avoid their shortcoming, and thus fail to learn. i was (and infact still am) my own worst enemy.

you will not become a better trader by "copying" a market guru. you will become a better trader by identifying the occasions when you are already trading well and then modeling your future performance on those. but again, you need to identify your "weaknesses and strengths" first....
most people i think dive in to trading with out knowing them selfs and acknowledging there weaknesses and strengths in the market and taking one at a time and working on it.

(i have read it some where in a book, i have literally 30 books on trading so not very sure the exact words)

"for the most part, people can tolerate loses well whether in the markets or in life, losing trades lost relationships lost friends, these are painful but normally not overwhelming. far more extreme is the loss of hope.when a trader loses a good portion or capital on a bad trade, its not so much the dollars & cents "impact" that becomes depressing, as it is the loss of hope that one can never get back.

i think hope and belief is "one off" the biggest factor as to whether u will stay or go. from the time i started trading i believed and had tons of hope that i knew i would succeed. every time i fell i just had to get back up till i got it right and wouldnt stop till i could stand once again.

i have tons of other things to say but im not sure if everyone wants me to blabber off, plus its 3 in the morning over here. time for some sleep

hope i shared something new for someone out there?

point is, dont fight the markets or your self. watch your opponent, learn your opponent, and finally when you ready, beat you opponent. opponent being the markets of course


GL ALL...................

Thanks for the tips jogold18.

ohh and on a trading note, stay above the daily pivot and 1.2785/1.28 is possible. a break below will lead to 1.2550 "ish" give or take 25-50pips

Originally Posted by jogold18

u REALLY dont have to have alot of technical indies to be profitable. i love your comment (and others too) when you talk about fundamental's, so first off, keep that up

on a technical side, if u not to sure, or you have not found any indicator that you feel comfy with, do what i did (thou now, my system is complicated filled with MA, pivots, indies) when i first started trading. find an indicator that indicates "where" the trend is. up, or down? ill mention what i first used. it was a 200MA. over and over i kept hearing everyone talk about the 200, the 200, the 200.

sooooo!!! i did just that. i "tried" trading with just the 200MA. but then came a problem, a big problem. i learnt that you can use the MA's as support or resis. if price was below, sell and only sell. if price was above, buy and only buy.

i tried doing just that, but no matter what i did i kept on losing money. i had a problem, not with the indicator, but with my self, psychologically speaking.

u know they say, "the trend is your friend"? well the fact is, most people trade against the trend and that included me. no matter what i did i kept on buying even tho price was below the 200. i told my self, its going up, its going up, buy buy, but heck IT WAS FREEKINGGGGG BELOW THE 200MA.
if u (or anyone for that matter) can short "CONSISTENTLY" while the price is below the 200, most people will be on there way to there billion dollar mark. i posted a chart below to show you such a simple tool by it self can give you so many pips, but most of us fail.

how do you know when to buy? u dont. u only buy when price get above the 200MA which so far it has not, so thus, its still a short......... (of course u can develop a system with just the 200MA and using diff time frames as part of your strategy) heck stick in there stocastic indi to show u when to sell.......



i think for the most part in trading, i have learnt not from my success, but from my failure.

successful traders seek out there weaknesses and learn when they fail. unsuccessful ones avoid their shortcoming, and thus fail to learn. i was (and infact still am) my own worst enemy.

you will not become a better trader by "copying" a market guru. you will become a better trader by identifying the occasions when you are already trading well and then modeling your future performance on those. but again, you need to identify your "weaknesses and strengths" first....
most people i think dive in to trading with out knowing them selfs and acknowledging there weaknesses and strengths in the market and taking one at a time and working on it.

(i have read it some where in a book, i have literally 30 books on trading so not very sure the exact words)

"for the most part, people can tolerate loses well whether in the markets or in life, losing trades lost relationships lost friends, these are painful but normally not overwhelming. far more extreme is the loss of hope.when a trader loses a good portion or capital on a bad trade, its not so much the dollars & cents "impact" that becomes depressing, as it is the loss of hope that one can never get back.

i think hope and belief is "one off" the biggest factor as to whether u will stay or go. from the time i started trading i believed and had tons of hope that i knew i would succeed. every time i fell i just had to get back up till i got it right and wouldnt stop till i could stand once again.

i have tons of other things to say but im not sure if everyone wants me to blabber off, plus its 3 in the morning over here. time for some sleep

hope i shared something new for someone out there?

point is, dont fight the markets or your self. watch your opponent, learn your opponent, and finally when you ready, beat you opponent. opponent being the markets of course


GL ALL...................

I gotta go to bed now myself but great stuff here - well done. Just a small addition worth throwing in here is that markets tend to be in chop chop/corrective stages a high percentage of the time. The chart shown is the stuff of dreams we all wait for - strong trend adhering to an MA but as we have seen, there is much to do in between. I am sure others will add in here but thought I'd mention before to bed.

Euro proved me right but I also was right bout the Gold...did not liked that trade.
USDJPY - correcting lower towards 80.20...may be a good time to add some more...

Originally Posted by Clivewaverider

I gotta go to bed now myself but great stuff here - well done. Just a small addition worth throwing in here is that markets tend to be in chop chop/corrective stages a high percentage of the time. The chart shown is the stuff of dreams we all wait for - strong trend adhering to an MA but as we have seen, there is much to do in between. I am sure others will add in here but thought I'd mention before to bed.

Good night Clive! I have to get to bed too. There are some really great posts tonight! I see EUR/USD closing in on daily R1 Pivot at 1.2750. May move down to S1 at 1.2677

With US stock futures flashing green. Asia market in the green. Nothing of real importance on the economic calender. I closed my short. Possible bounce coming. Fib from recent swing high to recent low. .382 1.28327 .500 1.28780 I dont have the kahunas to go long. Will look to enter short again. No bounce. Enter short again.

Peace

EDIT: BTW Facebook IPO is Friday. Retail investors will be ready to poor US dollars in the market to get some shares. LOL $38 to $40 a share.

Originally Posted by jogold18

i love your comment (and others too) when you talk about fundamental's, so first off, keep that up

Thank you, it is nice to feel I have a contribution to make here. So, the news:

Somehow I missed the announcement this morning: Greece does indeed have a caretaker prime minister now (Judge Prikammenos, apolitical) contrary to my earlier post that they still hadn't gotten it together. Elections are pushed back to June 17. I found some confirmation on a chat-board of what I said about Greeks not being likely to miss the implications of the German statements, or to react kindly to them:
"Mr. Schäuble and Mrs. Merkel keep stating that the E.U. is prepared for Greece's exit. Falsehood. That is just a laughable attempt at scaring the Greek people into voting for Bailout-Supporting Parties ( namely PASOK and ND ). Germany just might survive the shockwave Athens' Stock Exchange would send to Brussels once it leaved the Eurozone, but things would work out quite differently for Spain, Italy, Portugal and Ireland. One by one ( or all at the same time if you wish ) these countries would collapse and in turn, France, Belgium, Germany and the rest of the Eurozone would collapse too. Only the E.U. countries that aren't in the Eurozone ( namely Switzerland and The United Kingdom ) would be relatively "unscathed". The result would be the collapse of the Eurozone and the E.U. ( and the return to Europe being a warzone ).

Greece will not be allowed to leave the Euro. The Economists know this very well. I would simply hope that Mr. Schäuble would stop throwing idle threats about because ( as it's common knowledge ) we Greeks are hotheaded and proud, and we just might leave the Eurozone just to see what comes next.

And just to throw this out here : the Greek people don't care about Mr. Schäuble or Mrs. Merkel, and they will vote who they want for, regardless of the threats. That, I can promise.

So...off for a new election at the 17th of June folks...let's make it a good one."

The weekend will bring a G-8 meeting Saturday (parameters of IMF involvement in Eurozone bailouts will be a hot topic) followed by a NATO summit on Afghanistan policy Sunday (Pakistani President Zardari is invited, but not sure if he wants to go), and a second round of negotiations with Iran over their nuclear program: revelations that Iran has shipped arms to Syria are likely to make the mood testy, but only a major break-down would renew war jitters and oil-price runup. And: don't forget the EUR/USD options expiry; be careful out there on Friday, and be aware that if bulls run wild, that is only for temporary price-fixing purposes and will unwind with a bang and maybe another weekend gap-down.

Originally Posted by jogold18

i learnt that you can use the MA's as support or resis.

I never have trouble figuring out where the support and resistance are: whatever price I sold at, that must be the support it will not go below for days; and whatever price I buy at, that must be the resistance! ;-)

Originally Posted by jogold18

u know they say, "the trend is your friend"? well the fact is, most people trade against the trend

I tried four trades tonight: Paul Chin advised that euro shorts would not be good to hold onto, and I saw an updraft, so I closed out expecting creep-up during Asian session for better short entries tomorrow (so far that's right). Three of my trades were with trend (short aussie, short kiwi, long yen) and one against (long loonie). I was thinking loonie would turn around and pull back toward parity; instead it's just zigging and zagging. It was the aussie and kiwi that decided they didn't want to keep going the same trend anymore, and the yen just went a little further and stagnated; so I'm one-for-four on the night, and the one winner was much smaller than the losers.

Originally Posted by jogold18

i think for the most part in trading, i have learnt not from my success, but from my failure.

Exactamundo. So now I have homework, looking at those charts and my moving-average lines and seeing what clues there were that should have told me I was making worse choices than by coin-toss. Like here, for example: what was wrong with this?

On larger time-scales Aussie trend has been down a while, and I've shorted it profitably for fake money, just never for real money. It had hit the moving average and bounced back down for 50 pips just recently, as you see on the chart. When it hit the red line and bounced back below again, I sold-- and it zipped up a little the instant after I sold, and has piddled around, generally a little higher and higher, so-- I don't know, should I wait a few hours on it? I have to go to bed sometime, and just hate closing it out on a minus, but would hate turning it into a big minus even more.

Originally Posted by jogold18

far more extreme is the loss of hope.when a trader loses a good portion or capital on a bad trade, its not so much the dollars & cents "impact" that becomes depressing, as it is the loss of hope that one can never get back.

I was hammered pretty bad when I started this in March, but it was the losses in April that got to me emotionally, not just because I was near tapped out but because I'd expected to have gotten better at it by then and so I reached the point of doubting I'd ever be able to succeed. I've taken the $200 I had left at the start of this month and built it back to $450, by leveraging insanely (The Month of Living Dangerously); of course, it was $700 originally, so I can't feel too proud, but at least I have had enough successes to weather the "you're no good" whispering voices that come during a loser session like tonight.

Originally Posted by jogold18

i have tons of other things to say but im not sure if everyone wants me to blabber off

I quite appreciated your blabber. Glad to know you like my blabber too. I need to find somebody who will pay me to jibber-jabber, since it is one of my better skills!

Originally Posted by Clivewaverider

We are in the same place AV1 - i reckon we must be in wave 4 of 3 - just there is a low above and the bottom of the triangle that cooincides with a slightly deeper retracement as above figures. I obviously have no say in what will actually happen but 'hope' for 1.2813 ish before 5 of 3 down, although it is looking like a triangle sidewards at the moment.

As far as I can tell, wave 2 must have been almost downhill, so wave 4 (of the whole wave, not 3) should be worth a deeper retracement later.

We shall see.

It is a bit early in the morning to be making decisions but I have covered the longs again and banked some gains at 1.2745. Not quite as high as I would like this time around but lots of squiggles up and looking a bit jaded to me. Looking for a retest of the low again now, to have another go naked long.

Another ending diagonal would be just lovely, if the markets are listening!

EUR\USD H8
Short@ 1,29000 and @ 1,26000