Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

hi Robert,

i can't see anything wrong with your aussie and kiwi trades. think i would have shared the risk between the two as both dancing to the same tune.
cant expect to win every trade - to me its about probabilities not certainties and its being right more often than not over the last 20 trades, not just the last 4
if you use to many indicators you end up just looking for reasons not to trade rather than opertunities to trade.
got to accept losing trades as an essential part of trading and not take them personally
i cannot understand the logic of trading against the trend, some traders are very successful at it and i take my hat off to them. i'm sticking to the easy pips with maths on my side.

Originally Posted by jbiggart

hi Robert,

i can't see anything wrong with your aussie and kiwi trades. think i would have shared the risk between the two as both dancing to the same tune.
cant expect to win every trade - to me its about probabilities not certainties and its being right more often than not over the last 20 trades, not just the last 4
if you use to many indicators you end up just looking for reasons not to trade rather than opertunities to trade.
got to accept losing trades as an essential part of trading and not take them personally
i cannot understand the logic of trading against the trend, some traders are very successful at it and i take my hat off to them. i'm sticking to the easy pips with maths on my side.

This 'trading against the trend' faux pas is seemingly engrained in the psychology of this business - only for the big boys to do and for us to follow. It is fair to say that we as the minions can not turn the market ourselves without them, but EURUSD is in a corrective process longerterm following its high in 2008. This process of correcting the prior bull market is 'in the price action' until the correction is over in years to come, and I believe gives this pair its slightly schitzophrenic personality.

So, there are trends on various time frames at different times and being on one of those should be your priority Robert, but which one? Which one takes the lead over which: is it the established weight of the longer term that affects the shorter term or is the 'current' shortterm term leading the longer term aound like a barge ship.

I do not believe myself that matters are as simple as identify the trend and follow it and I distrust trends with a passion. I think it is easier to see where we have been and then prepare for the turn, rather than hanging out to the end of the wave waiting for the inevitable small loss. In the end, you gotta find your own tune that you are in harmony with.

Have you read that Hurst book yet?

Originally Posted by jbiggart

hi Robert,

i can't see anything wrong with your aussie and kiwi trades. think i would have shared the risk between the two as both dancing to the same tune.
cant expect to win every trade - to me its about probabilities not certainties and its being right more often than not over the last 20 trades, not just the last 4
if you use to many indicators you end up just looking for reasons not to trade rather than opertunities to trade.
got to accept losing trades as an essential part of trading and not take them personally
i cannot understand the logic of trading against the trend, some traders are very successful at it and i take my hat off to them. i'm sticking to the easy pips with maths on my side.

just looking at charts again
the very very short term trend broke and would have taken out your stop at prev.high. but the trend on the next time scale up has gone a bit rangy but is still intact until yesterdays highs are breached.
if they get broken then could be looking for a larger retrace on 4hr trend.

Originally Posted by Clivewaverider

This 'trading against the trend' faux pas is seemingly engrained in the psychology of this business - only for the big boys to do and for us to follow. It is fair to say that we as the minions can not turn the market ourselves without them, but EURUSD is in a corrective process longerterm following its high in 2008. This process of correcting the prior bull market is 'in the price action' until the correction is over in years to come, and I believe gives this pair its slightly schitzophrenic personality.

So, there are trends on various time frames at different times and being on one of those should be your priority Robert, but which one? Which one takes the lead over which: is it the established weight of the longer term that affects the shorter term or is the 'current' shortterm term leading the longer term aound like a barge ship.

I do not believe myself that matters are as simple as identify the trend and follow it and I distrust trends with a passion. I think it is easier to see where we have been and then prepare for the turn, rather than hanging out to the end of the wave waiting for the inevitable small loss. In the end, you gotta find your own tune that you are in harmony with.

Have you read that Hurst book yet?

are'nt counter trend traders just range traders trying to trade a trend.
i know that if i use my simple trend strategy in a range it does not work
i remember last year as price was climbing towards 1.4 and lots of experts were telling us that it was definately time for a reversal.
it carried on climbing to nearly 1.5
your at the end of a trend when you get stopped out and not before

Originally Posted by jbiggart

are'nt counter trend traders just range traders trying to trade a trend.
i know that if i use my simple trend strategy in a range it does not work
i remember last year as price was climbing towards 1.4 and lots of experts were telling us that it was definately time for a reversal.
it carried on climbing to nearly 1.5
your at the end of a trend when you get stopped out and not before

Sorry - the 'Hurst' book was for Robert.

I agree with you jbiggart. I was just trying to add that there is no 'right' trend, so to speak, other than the one that is banking the coin. It could be the little one within the intermediate within the large that is making the money for the day and one needs to be able to decypher ranging from tredning markets on the time frame you are trading. As ranging ones seem to dominate price action most of the time and given EURUSD is in a long term correction, waiting for the daily trend to break and hold has been a futile task in recent months.

I'll try and work with what the market is telling me but I can not help distrusting trends holding - as my 8 year old son keeps telling me,' its the way I roll'.

EUR/USD May 17 - 2012


EUR/USD has been trading sideways over the last 24 hrs but is still considered to be in a downtrend as long as price is being caped by 1.2760. Given that we are in a downtrend we need to assume that price will trader lower sooner than later and reach at least yesterday's low but most probably 1.2650.

S&P500 is also in a downtrend and supports further EUR/USD declines as investors sell anything with risk and hides out in the US Government bond markets.

A breakout above 1.2760 will break the trend of lower and lower highs and we expect price to reach 1.28 if this happens.



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EUR/USD 30 min chart


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Originally Posted by Paul Chin

The 2 gaps..... always in my mind.... affecting my judgements badly... it will not be forgotten.... traders always remember those levels. Where they fought and lose.

i said in my earlier post if gaps are not filled in 1 or 2 or max three sessions then wait for another 12 session for filling that gap up, now the first gap has already over 9 sessions and now its tenth session but adding to the prob is there is another gap now and its again wasn't filled with in 3 sessions, this shows the extreme bearish bias amongst the traders, if you scroll through the history of this pair you will notice there were never two gaps in a row for the last 12 years. and you will find one gap which is still to be filled at 1.2111 back in 9 april 2006, as for my count on dailies and weekly the main and alternate on both on we are in wave 3 in side wave 3 we can expect 1,2,3 or xwy or abc pattern what ever you name it and i am expecting there well be a lot of seller at this recent gap i.e 2913/14/15 and as for gold which i use a co related product it too has violated my main count, the main max depth was at 1541 and if main count was correct then we might see the surprise rally above 1700s because in a flat corrections the re traces must be at least 90% but the alternate count says otherwise for that the min depth is 1529 and max is 1507/08 with this is mind i am very least expecting the gap at 3080 be filled yes we can expect the other one to be filled at 2918 if gold give us the surprise rally to 1650xx

we yet have to see the reversal signs in shorter time frames!
trade accordingly!

Went short according to my setup - entry at 1.2722 - not best entry ever as I noticed afterwards that we had the pivot point in the way but it still morning in London and if this trend is down then price should decline over the next 2 hours putting the position in profit. I am looking to take profit at 1 to 1.5 times my risk.

1.25xx is a bit harder. But unless higher highs prints on the Daily, the price action will get there soon enough. After that, if the bounce up stalls out, watch out for a spiker down to the 1.21xx area.

I don't know if you have noticed but I have started to publishing GBP/USD outlooks every in the GBP/USD thread -> http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/gbp-u...ml#post1149273

Stryker`z charts for the day.....

Stryker`z charts...
USD8 hr n NZD 30 min

Originally Posted by rcopadilla

1.25xx is a bit harder. But unless higher highs prints on the Daily, the price action will get there soon enough. After that, if the bounce up stalls out, watch out for a spiker down to the 1.21xx area.

Some wide ranges there rcopadilla! At least we are seeing some action which is certainly better than all that ranging in the last few months.

I have added BB bands from 240mins upto a month on a couple of my working charts, just using 20simple ma x2, and very interesting indeed. It has given me a slightly different perspective to look at along with the rest of the 'approach'. Thank you for your perserverance.

Originally Posted by rcopadilla

1.25xx is a bit harder. But unless higher highs prints on the Daily, the price action will get there soon enough. After that, if the bounce up stalls out, watch out for a spiker down to the 1.21xx area.

Rcopadilla what do you see? Post your chart my friend...

Originally Posted by Robert Eckert

I tried four trades tonight: Paul Chin advised that euro shorts would not be good to hold onto, and I saw an updraft, so I closed out expecting creep-up during Asian session for better short entries tomorrow (so far that's right). Three of my trades were with trend (short aussie, short kiwi, long yen) and one against (long loonie).

when i first started trading, i had a chart in front of me with 8 diff pairs to trade from. if i had to do it again, i would do it with less pairs. i think anyone trying to start trading should do so with 1,2 maybe 3 pairs, (at most). by trading so many pairs, you spread your energy looking at so much information with a few diff time frames is over whelming, specifically for a new forex trader. for me it was WAY over whelming to look at so many. especially you who trades with fundamentals, you will put more effort and energy which will pay off on the few pairs you trade.

some pairs moves differently from each other, others move the same as the other, but each one has its own characteristics. EURUSD is the most liquid and lowest spread so pick that with another pair of your choice. look at how they move, learn how they move and what indies goes well with, then start playing around with the 1-3 pairs, and get to know them. make them your best friend. you have the FXCM platform, go on to the dealing rates, then on to the symbol subscription list, take away all the pairs there except for 2 or 3 that you will sleep, eat, and talk to. learn them and practice on them. dont focus on others and even if you see an AMAZING importunity that someone mentioned, forget about it. stick with what you have. stay disciplined to that respect.

in the markets, and especially in life, people try to do so many things at once. i know i did. its better to apply your self with 1-2 things at a time and put your energy in that compared to doing 6 or 7 things together. concentrate on a couple things at once and you will do them great, but rest assured, you will do them, and you will do them great. concentrate and put your energy on for more things, and its guaranteed you will fail and prob have a nervous breakdown along the way. less is better in the beginning until u able to stand by your self.

Originally Posted by Robert Eckert

Exactamundo. So now I have homework, looking at those charts and my moving-average lines and seeing what clues there were that should have told me I was making worse choices than by coin-toss. Like here, for example: what was wrong with this?
Attachment 127899

i mentioned, "find your strengths & weaknesses". i cannot talk nor see what you see, but my method uses the 5 and 30 min chart and nothing in between . u have the 15 up there which is also good for you maybe, but not for me. bec i look at the 30, as long as price is below, (for a new trader stick with the trend), why buy? you increase the risk. i posted a chart below,



its making a triangle with the price being below the 200. (markets or financial markets are probabilistically predictable) so what is the likely, or probable outcome? down, right? whether it breaks up is not the point. point being, never fight the trend. as i post, price is below 200 on 30 tf, and has broke below the 200 on 5 min tf. so conclusion that i have is further down is more probable unless price gets back above on the 5 min tf

Originally Posted by Robert Eckert

On larger time-scales Aussie trend has been down a while, and I've shorted it profitably for fake money, just never for real money. It had hit the moving average and bounced back down for 50 pips just recently, as you see on the chart. When it hit the red line and bounced back below again, I sold-- and it zipped up a little the instant after I sold, and has piddled around, generally a little higher and higher, so-- I don't know, should I wait a few hours on it? I have to go to bed sometime, and just hate closing it out on a minus, but would hate turning it into a big minus even more.

u look at 15, so im guessing you also look at the 1 hour to with it? if so, its below the 200 MA on 1h tf, conclusion, dont close, leave a higher stop then what you normally would and stay with it (maybe put the stop above the previous higher), cuz again, the higher chance is further down its just making a small retrace back to the previous high or low area. its a 30 min chart, but look for the previous "highs" taking in to account the 200MA and put in the resis as a horizontal line. more times then not, if price continues in the direction of the trend, it stays below the previous high.



[/QUOTE]


anyway need to head out.. GL.