Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

hourly candle closes above 2721 then bull are good to go to 2800 in a thrust!

Originally Posted by Clivewaverider

I was going to say "that is stating the blimming obvious" but it is so true, is it not. I sit here staring at my waves thinking, what we need is a good bounce that sticks and then maybe we will get our retracement. This is undoubtedly what the rest of the trillion $ market (guess!) is thinking too. Should have some venom in it, whatever the degree - a punchy zigzag (abc) will do me fine and possibly a few others riding their luck a tad close to the wire (or is it just me?).

My target for re-covering my longs is at the top of the 240min BB band - approx 1.2824 which is R3 today. Seems a long way off but I can hope.

Hi - there are big stops from interbank players above 1.28 - sooo probably - either no touch or much higher

edit: Asian CBs are on the offer from 1.27 - 1h kumo still holds - overall structure purely corrective - perhaps a spike slightly above 1.2758 (expanded flat)- below 1.262 heavy stops - a hell could be unleashed.

edit2: if the second gap was an acceleration gap then price should ...err... accelerate. A third gap (if occours) will be exhaustion gap, hence a good buy

Patryk

[QUOTE=Alejandro Zambrano;1150882]EUR/USD May 18 - 2012


EUR/USD is correcting against its trend which is fully normal. I expect this correction to stall somewhere between 1.2720-1.2760 after a reversal is in place I expect price to resume its downtrend and reach 1.2625. A breakout above 1.2760 will mean the end of this downtrend, if this happens price would trade to 1.28.

Hello Azambrano, appreciate you can shed some light when you say that Euro is correcting - who are those people who are so gutsy to buy up the Euro when they know it will jolly come down shortly after? Thank you.

wave 5 ended which was way extended, now the retrace should of the length of wave 1 or 3, or the abc correction should get at least 2856 number

Originally Posted by fazi

Hi - there are big stops from interbank players above 1.28 - sooo probably - either no touch or much higher

edit: Asian CBs are on the offer from 1.27 - 1h kumo still holds - overall structure purely corrective - perhaps a spike slightly above 1.2758 (expanded flat)- below 1.262 heavy stops - a hell could be unleashed.

edit2: if the second gap was an acceleration gap then price should ...err... accelerate. A third gap (if occours) will be exhaustion gap, hence a good buy

Patryk

Looking at Daily Stochastic, I haven't seen it like this since August 2008. And I am thinking seriously on changing my long term stance on EUR/USD. Be very very careful with longs anywhere.

Originally Posted by stryker

Agree I have 2705 as soft but better resis and tgt at 2725.... that's what I'm eying and gold is once again to make a mammoth move 1602 expected on this 1589 breakout...
GL..

hello stryker

my 1st tp met at 1580 now eying the 2nd one at 1599 ultimate is 1644/55/60

I am going to disappear for awhile. Just be a part-time post reader for now. I am starting to see little arguments on my favorite forms. Ellliotwave, EUR/USD. Divisions have already started. Its a natural occurrence in a bearmarket. Its really no big deal. I have read many articles from Prechter about the effects of bear markets on people, and countries. I just don't take things so serious, this helps me keep my good Karma trading with no fear. I have had my best week ever. 400pips banked, 600 floating. I need to spend more time study charts, and reading Elliott Wave Principle. I can get even better! I wish to thank so many of you for helping me learn from your posts. These forums are a valuable resource. Thank you Gregory, Alejandro, and yes so many more here. To many to name. Robert hang in there man. This site has some great videos about indicators, and such. Watch them. Also this site has some excellent live webinars.

No your not rid of me!

Peace!

Peace and good luck

Originally Posted by AV1

Looking at Daily Stochastic, I haven't seen it like this since August 2008. And I am thinking seriously on changing my long term stance on EUR/USD. Be very very careful with longs anywhere.

one more thing: 1.25 -1.36 double no-touch option expires today - ussually big boys and CBs play DNTs so it will be all clear for the bottom to fall out - big DNTs are really hard to pop.

edit: 1.27 strike option is said to be 2B big - until it expires (10nY) not much movement I suppouse

Patryk

Originally Posted by turmaz

hello stryker

my 1st tp met at 1580 now eying the 2nd one at 1599 ultimate is 1644/55/60

updated on gold section.. 1600-02 eying and possibly a retrace to 1585 to reload on longs for me...
hoping to see 1601 print for would get me 13.2 pts on the current longs.... 1598 i be shedding out some as well...

GL...

Originally Posted by turmaz

EDIT: the mid of 270 is 135 add this too 1527 you get 1662 and the mid of 135 is 67,5 add this to 1527 you will get 1594.5 we can expect some resistance there at 1594

this was last night and today high is exactly 1594

Originally Posted by stryker

Matter of fact worse night marre for the USD bear camps are coming true..

Bruce Krasting on FX crosses and worst nightmares coming true:

- downfall in the USD/Yen and the Eur/Yen cross
- evidence of full blown bank runs
- new euros being printed for Greece with a big red G. meant to stop a flight of currency out of the Greece
- will precipitate huge banks in Spain, Portugal, Ireland and maybe Belgium

Now the big question: what will the eur/usd be worth with a "D" for Deutschland?? Certainly more than 1.27

" I want to be short the Euro that will be marked with the G, S, P, or I, but I don’t want to be short the euro with a D. "

A worthy read today: On FX and Worst Fears | ZeroHedge

Originally Posted by fazi

Hi - there are big stops from interbank players above 1.28 - sooo probably - either no touch or much higher

edit: Asian CBs are on the offer from 1.27 - 1h kumo still holds - overall structure purely corrective - perhaps a spike slightly above 1.2758 (expanded flat)- below 1.262 heavy stops - a hell could be unleashed.

edit2: if the second gap was an acceleration gap then price should ...err... accelerate. A third gap (if occours) will be exhaustion gap, hence a good buy

Patryk

The BB's were on 240min settings, so dropping quickly - maybe into consolidation. Price continually held in bearish side of my time squares (under thick blue line in previous chart) which is somewhat subduing bullish stabs up. 1.62x the potential first wave this morning gets to 1.2773 if that existing backtest holds as wave 2, so I'll be covered around there if surges fail to stick.

That MA band is the 100-200 period on an attenuation basis (as opposed to exponential, weighted, et al) - I have been watching how it works with the Hull MA (2day period 10) to both support trend and indicate change afoot. When the thin red (100) crosses up through the Hull, subtle changes seem to happening in underlying currents, even if price does not immediately follow.

I am hoping that price will now level off into the MA band, consolidate and provide base for a retracement - whether wave 4 of 3 or 4 of overall wave or anything else in fact as long as it goes up!

this what i will talk about you have never heard of it

if my time technical are correct i am firstly expecting a blow towards 1.2745/55 area then blow down to 1.2655/60 and then the another blow from 1.2655/60 to 1.2865/75

errors +/- 10 to 15 pips

trade safe!!

Well, Stan is not sharing with me over on the EW forum but I will give everything away until everyone tells me to shut up:

The thick blue line in the Pyrapoint chart is looking ready to crack - if it holds above, then this is the first bullish square since the drop started. I have also added in trend extensions on my Bollinger chart and 1.2800 ish would indeed make a good next stop.

Fingers crossed.

Originally Posted by turmaz

this what i will talk about you have never heard of it

if my time technical are correct i am firstly expecting a blow towards 1.2745/55 area then blow down to 1.2655/60 and then the another blow from 1.2655/60 to 1.2865/75

errors +/- 10 to 15 pips

trade safe!!

please memorize the above post and numbers in it for future references
thank you and happy and safe trading to you all!