Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

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Hello Greg,

What happens if the market starts betting on Greece staying in the Euro (well at least for the short term). Do you think the bulls will take control again or is that already priced in? Thanks

Originally Posted by Andie

Hello Greg,

What happens if the market starts betting on Greece staying in the Euro (well at least for the short term). Do you think the bulls will take control again or is that already priced in? Thanks

Hello Andie! That is a great question. I believe that the chance of Greece forming a coalition government that can negotiate with a more sympathetic troika is high. There is more talk of sharing debt via Eurobonds and Germany and its austerity measures are isolated. Growth through easing is Greece friendly and the Euro could rebound higher as a result.

Thanks for your question!

Originally Posted by trend2

dear seniors
is euro going short or long , thank you

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Hello Andie! That is a great question. I believe that the chance of Greece forming a coalition government that can negotiate with a more sympathetic troika is high. There is more talk of sharing debt via Eurobonds and Germany and its austerity measures are isolated. Growth through easing is Greece friendly and the Euro could rebound higher as a result.

Thanks for your question!

Thanks Greg

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Hello Andie! That is a great question. I believe that the chance of Greece forming a coalition government that can negotiate with a more sympathetic troika is high. There is more talk of sharing debt via Eurobonds and Germany and its austerity measures are isolated. Growth through easing is Greece friendly and the Euro could rebound higher as a result.

Thanks for your question!

C`mon Greg - when a FinMin of one country calls ideas of other`s country President a nonsense - there is a room for a deal right?

Hollande's euro arguments nonsense: Austria's Fekter | Reuters

Patryk

EUR/USD short term structure - still bearish as long as we trade under the 1.2775 high - this is the 5 min time frame - at the 5 min time frame I don't bother to wait for the reversal I just use fib-levels/common sense to get a good entry - From a risk and reward perspective we risk 20 pips and if we reach our target of 1.27 we will make 55 pips - personally I don't tend go for the whole move but 1.5 to 2 times the risk is good enough for me.

5 min time frame

Greg, need a 3rd option to your poll cos
'i am what ever i think the market is at the time of my trade'
i went long kiwi last night taking advantage of inverted h&s
and been shorting euro & aussie today
feeling a bit left out from your poll

Originally Posted by Andie

Hello Greg,

What happens if the market starts betting on Greece staying in the Euro (well at least for the short term). Do you think the bulls will take control again or is that already priced in? Thanks

We might push a big higher but either Greece or something else will take the Euro lower - I would stay bearish in the long term because as long as we trade under 1.33 its very likely that we reach 1.20. We need something like LTRO or QE3 to break the trend.

Euro Break of Down Trend Line Could Signal March to New Highs

Hello Mario, I think Euro could move toward R1 today. What do you think?

Originally Posted by Nicolas Chéron

Hello Alex,

Here is what I have. Range trading, simply.

I agree that we are in a very short term range but I would not treat it as a range as - S&P500 is very strong and needs to correct lower before professional traders would like to buy more - so I would like to remain short according to this mornings setup but adjust the stop to the stop loss to 1.2810.

Now if we go higher or lower matters less because its all about the money management

Originally Posted by trend2

dear seniors
is euro going short or long , thank you

Originally Posted by Alejandro Zambrano

We might push a big higher but either Greece or something else will take the Euro lower - I would stay bearish in the long term because as long as we trade under 1.33 its very likely that we reach 1.20. We need something like LTRO or QE3 to break the trend.

Thanks Guys

Better than Expected New Home Sales 3.4% vs. 2.9%

Good U.S. economic news is short-term Euro positive

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Hello Andie! That is a great question. I believe that the chance of Greece forming a coalition government that can negotiate with a more sympathetic troika is high. There is more talk of sharing debt via Eurobonds and Germany and its austerity measures are isolated. Growth through easing is Greece friendly and the Euro could rebound higher as a result.

Thanks for your question!

Germany calls the Eurobond idea a violation of current treaties. Whether that is correct or not is an iffy legal question, but regardless: if Germany refuses to back the new bonds (as seems certain), they will not happen. Assertions that everybody wants Greece to stay in the euro are bound to come out of tomorrow's meeting, but will there be anything substantive that makes it more practical for Greece to do so? Bottom line is that it remains fatal for Greece to remain in a strong euro: every day that the euro remains above 1.25 makes it less plausible for the eurozone to remain intact. Aside from Greece and Spain, it has now been acknowledged that Italy also will continue to contract for another year or more without a continent-wide restructuring. A major rethink of the treaties is needed, but this will take a lot of time; short-term the best we can hope for from tomorrow's meeting is to stave off bank runs.

Originally Posted by MOZI32

i m short at 1.2820 and 12770 stop 1.2820 target 1.2705 , 1.2660 , 1.2580

Good luck

updated my stop to 1.2795 short still target 1.2705 first

Originally Posted by Robert Eckert

Germany calls the Eurobond idea a violation of current treaties. Whether that is correct or not is an iffy legal question, but regardless: if Germany refuses to back the new bonds (as seems certain), they will not happen. Assertions that everybody wants Greece to stay in the euro are bound to come out of tomorrow's meeting, but will there be anything substantive that makes it more practical for Greece to do so? Bottom line is that it remains fatal for Greece to remain in a strong euro: every day that the euro remains above 1.25 makes it less plausible for the eurozone to remain intact. Aside from Greece and Spain, it has now been acknowledged that Italy also will continue to contract for another year or more without a continent-wide restructuring. A major rethink of the treaties is needed, but this will take a lot of time; short-term the best we can hope for from tomorrow's meeting is to stave off bank runs.

You are right Robert. The topic of Eurobonds is repulsive to the Germans just like the LTRO was. They may find a clever way of repackaging them as 'Public Works' or 'Infrastructure" Bonds. Same old stuff just a different label to make it more palatable for Germany.