Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

heres the latest from marketvision - gives a nice hypothesis imo:

Guest Commentary: MarketVisionTV - Trading Against the Herd...Trading the Less Obvious EURUSD | DailyFX

GL all

Originally Posted by Robert Eckert

Germany calls the Eurobond idea a violation of current treaties. Whether that is correct or not is an iffy legal question, but regardless: if Germany refuses to back the new bonds (as seems certain), they will not happen. Assertions that everybody wants Greece to stay in the euro are bound to come out of tomorrow's meeting, but will there be anything substantive that makes it more practical for Greece to do so? Bottom line is that it remains fatal for Greece to remain in a strong euro: every day that the euro remains above 1.25 makes it less plausible for the eurozone to remain intact. Aside from Greece and Spain, it has now been acknowledged that Italy also will continue to contract for another year or more without a continent-wide restructuring. A major rethink of the treaties is needed, but this will take a lot of time; short-term the best we can hope for from tomorrow's meeting is to stave off bank runs.

I agree fully that the longer Greece is trading with the Euro the deeper the problem gets. It's highly likely the Greece will be the first to drop the Euro but remain within the EEU. There won't be a "Continental Restructuring" as the general populace is not standing for the measures now and certainly not the proposed ones.

Ireland's tax revolt is only a reflection of what has been going on in Italy, Spain and Portugal. The Elephant in the room is not Greece but Spain. I see the impact of these near term meetings to minimize the impact of these periphery countries departure from the Euro. Without EUB's there's an accelerated chance that the Euro will not survive due to the stark contrast in valuations of the member economies measured in wages per day is best to see the disparity and why it's continued used is fatal for some and an exercise in meeting to discuss the upcoming meetings for the rest. My 2 pips.

Euro Has Seen Surges After NY Session Lunch - Euro has "eaten" the bear's lunch at around 2:00PM ET. The buying looks intriguingly mechanical for 2 hours.

Let's see if that takes place again today.

Has anyone else noticed this pattern?

Originally Posted by fazi

C`mon Greg - when a FinMin of one country calls ideas of other`s country President a nonsense - there is a room for a deal right?

Hollande's euro arguments nonsense: Austria's Fekter | Reuters

Patryk

Its been a while, but heres my recent thinking on the politics:

Hollande is a typical politician, hes taken the opportunity to oust an unpopular imcumbent by saying what the majority of voters wanted to hear. Hopefully, also like a politician, he'll renege on his election promises and do what is best for his country over the long run. If he messes up the deficit situation in France, they could be like Spain and Italy by the end of his first term and i'm pretty sure at least one of his finance advisers has alerted him to this fact.

With regard to eurobonds, Hollande says he has the backing of G8 leaders? If hes serious he is an absolute joker, as the backers he will have have absolutely no leverage. As Robert says, Germany holds all the cards - why should they agree to risk their own financial strength to finance the rest of europe when even its more abiding members seemingly cannot do what they agreed to (i.e. meet deficit reduction criteria)?

Again - i expect he will renege and eventually side with Germany. If not he'll likely be in for a number of humiliating defeats regarding European policy - something that he won't want so early in his term. What will probably happen is that Hollande eventually agrees with Merkel, as he will see that this is ultimately best for France, with an agreement that eurobonds could be on the cards when certain (unchangeable) deficit criteria are met; we get a sharp rally, then the reality of meeting said criteria sends EUR down another leg. This potentially might rule Greece out and they will be forced to leave the euro, not by their people not wanting to keep it, but by being unwilling to meet the deficit reduction criteria (as is historically the norm when currency blocs break up).

I'm hoping for this as it will be a lot better for the global economy, though i'm glad i'm not Greek.

Asian stimulus will intermittently improve risk appetites

USD will come under pressure as the US election approaches as i believe a republican win is risk
Intrade - Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012

Can't see any QE from the Fed for at least a few months though

Current scenario shows the price action at the 15min BB300 midline support. Once that breaks there little support until the lower BB300.

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Euro Has Seen Surges After NY Session Lunch - Euro has "eaten" the bear's lunch at around 2:00PM ET. The buying looks intriguingly mechanical for 2 hours.

Let's see if that takes place again today.

Has anyone else noticed this pattern?

How those patterns tend to repeat themselves over and over. However I've noticed the morning EUR/USD diurnal low to be later than usual even after the time change due to daylight savings shift.

There's quite a bit of "mechnical/HFT" trading going on these days but I've also noted a larger COT in Euro options these past few weeks. Here's a link to CMEGroups interactive COT tool for options.

Great chart mark-up Greg, thanks.

-Rod

Originally Posted by MysticMegatron

Its been a while, but heres my recent thinking on the politics:

Hollande is a typical politician, hes taken the opportunity to oust an unpopular imcumbent by saying what the majority of voters wanted to hear. Hopefully, also like a politician, he'll renege on his election promises and do what is best for his country over the long run. If he messes up the deficit situation in France, they could be like Spain and Italy by the end of his first term and i'm pretty sure at least one of his finance advisers has alerted him to this fact.

With regard to eurobonds, Hollande says he has the backing of G8 leaders? If hes serious he is an absolute joker, as the backers he will have have absolutely no leverage. As Robert says, Germany holds all the cards - why should they agree to risk their own financial strength to finance the rest of europe when even its more abiding members seemingly cannot do what they agreed to (i.e. meet deficit reduction criteria)?

Again - i expect he will renege and eventually side with Germany. If not he'll likely be in for a number of humiliating defeats regarding European policy - something that he won't want so early in his term. What will probably happen is that Hollande eventually agrees with Merkel, as he will see that this is ultimately best for France, with an agreement that eurobonds could be on the cards when certain (unchangeable) deficit criteria are met; we get a sharp rally, then the reality of meeting said criteria sends EUR down another leg. This potentially might rule Greece out and they will be forced to leave the euro, not by their people not wanting to keep it, but by being unwilling to meet the deficit reduction criteria (as is historically the norm when currency blocs break up).

I'm hoping for this as it will be a lot better for the global economy, though i'm glad i'm not Greek.

Asian stimulus will intermittently improve risk appetites

USD will come under pressure as the US election approaches as i believe a republican win is risk
Intrade - Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012

Can't see any QE from the Fed for at least a few months though

Hello Mystic! We have missed your presence. Thank for chiming in. Yep Fazi, I just read that the Austrian Finance minister said that Francois Holland's arguments to solve debt crisis are "nonsense. Wow, talking about an old fashioned public "Smack Down". They are not cutting the new guy any slack.

Originally Posted by MysticMegatron

Its been a while, but heres my recent thinking on the politics:

Hollande is a typical politician, hes taken the opportunity to oust an unpopular imcumbent by saying what the majority of voters wanted to hear. Hopefully, also like a politician, he'll renege on his election promises and do what is best for his country over the long run. If he messes up the deficit situation in France, they could be like Spain and Italy by the end of his first term and i'm pretty sure at least one of his finance advisers has alerted him to this fact.

With regard to eurobonds, Hollande says he has the backing of G8 leaders? If hes serious he is an absolute joker, as the backers he will have have absolutely no leverage. As Robert says, Germany holds all the cards - why should they agree to risk their own financial strength to finance the rest of europe when even its more abiding members seemingly cannot do what they agreed to (i.e. meet deficit reduction criteria)?

Again - i expect he will renege and eventually side with Germany. If not he'll likely be in for a number of humiliating defeats regarding European policy - something that he won't want so early in his term. What will probably happen is that Hollande eventually agrees with Merkel, as he will see that this is ultimately best for France, with an agreement that eurobonds could be on the cards when certain (unchangeable) deficit criteria are met; we get a sharp rally, then the reality of meeting said criteria sends EUR down another leg. This potentially might rule Greece out and they will be forced to leave the euro, not by their people not wanting to keep it, but by being unwilling to meet the deficit reduction criteria (as is historically the norm when currency blocs break up).

I'm hoping for this as it will be a lot better for the global economy, though i'm glad i'm not Greek.

Asian stimulus will intermittently improve risk appetites

USD will come under pressure as the US election approaches as i believe a republican win is risk
Intrade - Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012

Can't see any QE from the Fed for at least a few months though

oh yeah, and lets hear it for Cameron in the UK, if not for the fact that hes the only person between me and the, lets face it, Arnold Rimmer-like 'Milliband'.

didn't think i'd say it when he was elected, but hes doing a good job in the UK, helped by the (again better-than-expect) treasurer

Originally Posted by buggypilot

How those patterns tend to repeat themselves over and over. However I've noticed the morning EUR/USD diurnal low to be later than usual even after the time change due to daylight savings shift.

There's quite a bit of "mechnical/HFT" trading going on these days but I've also noted a larger COT in Euro options these past few weeks. Here's a link to CMEGroups interactive COT tool for options.

Great chart mark-up Greg, thanks.

-Rod

You are welcome BP! Thanks for the "shout out" and the link! I have read that Euro short positions have been the highest in history. A perfect set up for a short squeeze rally.

Originally Posted by MysticMegatron

Its been a while, but heres my recent thinking on the politics:

Hollande is a typical politician, hes taken the opportunity to oust an unpopular imcumbent by saying what the majority of voters wanted to hear. Hopefully, also like a politician, he'll renege on his election promises and do what is best for his country over the long run. If he messes up the deficit situation in France, they could be like Spain and Italy by the end of his first term and i'm pretty sure at least one of his finance advisers has alerted him to this fact.

With regard to eurobonds, Hollande says he has the backing of G8 leaders? If hes serious he is an absolute joker, as the backers he will have have absolutely no leverage. As Robert says, Germany holds all the cards - why should they agree to risk their own financial strength to finance the rest of europe when even its more abiding members seemingly cannot do what they agreed to (i.e. meet deficit reduction criteria)?

Again - i expect he will renege and eventually side with Germany. If not he'll likely be in for a number of humiliating defeats regarding European policy - something that he won't want so early in his term. What will probably happen is that Hollande eventually agrees with Merkel, as he will see that this is ultimately best for France, with an agreement that eurobonds could be on the cards when certain (unchangeable) deficit criteria are met; we get a sharp rally, then the reality of meeting said criteria sends EUR down another leg. This potentially might rule Greece out and they will be forced to leave the euro, not by their people not wanting to keep it, but by being unwilling to meet the deficit reduction criteria (as is historically the norm when currency blocs break up).

I'm hoping for this as it will be a lot better for the global economy, though i'm glad i'm not Greek.

Asian stimulus will intermittently improve risk appetites

USD will come under pressure as the US election approaches as i believe a republican win is risk
Intrade - Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012

Can't see any QE from the Fed for at least a few months though

cheers Greg - problem with currency trading is: if its done right, you seem to take too many holidays

would have thought some clever marketing could turn a trip to greece into a must rung on the social climbing ladder of the worlds new rich - bit like germany have done with their cars
greeks need to chuck away the begging bowl - grab the bull by the horns - show some greek fighting spirit and take advantage of their unique history and great hospitality - no pain no gain

Hi guys,

Amnew and following alejandro with bulls / bear setup.

Just wondering if anyone has got the the right settings for mt4 program to be able to use it properly.

Thanks very much
HZ

Originally Posted by rcopadilla

Current scenario shows the price action at the 15min BB300 midline support. Once that breaks there little support until the lower BB300.

Breakdown in progress. Look out below.

Originally Posted by biggari

would have thought some clever marketing could turn a trip to greece into a must rung on the social climbing ladder of the worlds new rich - bit like germany have done with their cars
greeks need to chuck away the begging bowl - grab the bull by the horns - show some greek fighting spirit and take advantage of their unique history and great hospitality - no pain no gain

Great ideas. A weaker currency would also help.
A rich culture, great food, and great people in an unfortunate situation. I remember the fall of the Soviet Union and when China was not the economic power house that it is now. To see the transformation in these countries over the years is awe inspiring that no matter how low a country is, when there is a will, there is a way forward.

The market always gives you a chance to join the party! Fib from swing high to low. Probably a little side ways action for now, before the storm hits.

Just an observation. If the US markets have hiccups from a simple IPO from face book. With no up tic rule. Whats going to happen when panic selling starts. When everyone flees from the word risk.