Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

London session review and outlook May 22 - 2012
Review of markets covered in today's edition of Bulls vs. Bears: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, FTSE100, S&P500, Gold, Brent Crude and WTI.




Regards

Alejandro Zambrano
Currency Strategist | DailyFX Forum (London)
azambrano@fxcm.com

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Originally Posted by zingstrafx

Hi guys,

Amnew and following alejandro with bulls / bear setup.

Just wondering if anyone has got the the right settings for mt4 program to be able to use it properly.

Thanks very much
HZ

I did a bit of googling and I found this

Make sure that you have them setup on -5 (time zone) as my piviot points are based on the New York trading session - so 17 EST I always get new pivot point levels

TzPivots — MetaTrader Indicator

Originally Posted by Spyros

In the daily chart we see the possible targets for the next days. It needs attention and I remind you that EUR/USD is at critical levels as the price has crossed down the midline of the rising channel that I presented in a previous post.

Scenario A
Expect an uptrend reaction where the price will be tested in 1.2900-1,2986 (middle bollinger). A break-up of the middle boll will target 1.3036 - 1.3050 (midline channel) where the price is expected for a hard test. A break-up will open the field to the daily EMA200 otherwise is expected to see a strong downtrend reaction to the 1.2625 area witch I analyze in scenario B.

Scenario B
The rate will continue downtrend and tested at the 1.2625 area where is the previous low of 13 JAN 12. Here again be careful because a break-down opens the field for 1.2194 to 1.2174. Otherwise is expected to see a strong uptrend reaction to 1.3036-1.3050 (midline channel).

Personally I believe at scenario A. Both scenarios are in play ...

Time required for targets (1.2900-1,2986 or 1.2625) 3 to 8 days

Attachment 128714

On 4h chart appears that scenario B is in progress and the price is going to 1,2665 (low bol). The 1.2642 (low price of the recent downtrend rally) and 1.2625 (low of 13 JAN 12) are the next potential targets. It is interesting to see the reaction to these price levels. Expected strong reaction to 1.2625.

The 15min chart CCI, MACD, SSD and RSI are flatlining in the overbought zone. But since the 4hour (or other multihour timeframe) charts still project more downside to come, the 15min is unable to get out of oversold and just flatlines.
Some kind of bounce can be expected once 1.265x is reached. But the daily charts project even more downside, so expect the bounce to be another DCB.

Originally Posted by trend2

dear seniors
is euro going short or long , thank you

Originally Posted by rcopadilla

The 15min chart CCI, MACD, SSD and RSI are flatlining in the overbought zone. But since the 4hour (or other multihour timeframe) charts still project more downside to come, the 15min is unable to get out of oversold and just flatlines.
Some kind of bounce can be expected once 1.265x is reached. But the daily charts project even more downside, so expect the bounce to be another DCB.

Good job, good luck

The Sep2011 fractal is the pattern being used as a guideline for the current price action.
The current pattern seems to be a 1/2 bar late than the fractal. Since only full bars print, it seems like the current pattern is a bar later than the previous pattern.

Using standard Fib retracements, the projected Fractal low was near the 1.272 Fib level near 1.32173. The projected 1.272 Fib level for the current pattern is near 1.2565. So expect a low around that level. The bulls can have their day and can do that short squeeze at last. It is not enough to have a lot of traders short to squeeze them. Other conditions have to setup for the squeeze.

Look out below was right.
Anyways, the 4hour lower BB20 has not yet been tagged so a bit more down action can be expected Anybody make some pips???

Chart Analysis Forex (EUR/USD)

prices are calling for 1.2645 min

Originally Posted by rcopadilla

The lower BB20 on the 1hour timeframe has been tagged. In an uptrend, I would be look for a setup to reverse back up. Since we are in a downtrend, I look for signs for the downtrend to continue such as the 4Hour lower BB20 not yet being tagged.

Great call rcopadilla! Euro moved down as you indicated and ate my lunch. Thanks again for sharing your insights.

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Great call rcopadilla! Euro moved down as you indicated and ate my lunch. Thanks again for sharing your insights.

Sorry about the loss. It has been my experience that it is difficult to change the trading bias of traders once they have established a position. The better they are, the harder it is to change their mind (myself included).

Am hoping that a few here can pick up on some of my techniques (they are fairly simple) so the extra eyes on the charts can help benefit the whole forum.

I WAS REALLY PREYING THAT I WILL BE WRONG WHEN 2 DAYS EGO I POST
HERE , THAT TRADING TODAY'S TIMES CURRENCY IS LIKE A DICE...
I AM AFRAID THAT I AM CORRECT ON THIS ONE..
I SEE SO MANY POST THAT MANY PEOPLE START WITH THE WORD (I THINK)
IS GOING 1.29 THE OTHER ONE (I THINK ) IS GOING 1/30 1/40 AND SO OWN...
N O B O D Y CAN PREDICT THE FUTURE!!! I STAR TO REALIZE AFTER THAT I LOST $$$$$
(MAYBE I AM THE ONLY ONE)
AS YOU CAN SEE ALL THE CHARTS IN THE WORLD CAN NOT TELL YOU FOR 50% OR MORE FOR SURE WHERE IS GOING THE EU/US..
LETS HOPE FOR BETTER EASY TIMES LIKE 2005-6 WHEN IT WAS A PIECE OF CAKE!!! GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE...

Originally Posted by rcopadilla

I've done some long scalps but the longer term trend is still down. There have been many posters some of them who are normally pretty good who have went long and not just for a scalp. It would be interesting to know some of the reasons they have for doing so. The market fakes us out a lot. Why and how we get faked out will be a another tool in the toolbox.

Well, I be one of them - hands up! I have written in fine detail on all the reasons I am bullish this pair and have done for weeks now. I am over on the new forum now until I am told not to, so my weekend summaries are there. In short, there are alternative 'counts' that have been so dilligently kept in play for so long now (up that is) and continue to fail to be deletable from the stable of alternatives, that the underlying suggestion is that 'down' is the fake. Of course, I could be being played too but that is fine by me. I am not of the opinion that any one direction is right, just that pips is being made.

Indeed, I put my hands up again and can confirm that it is has been very hard work, covering my longs, scalping both ways etc, but I am not convinced that down is the way to play this. I just count to 13 on impulsive plays and see where the action took us - thus far, there is more than just a chance that all the doubling back over and over confirms that we will be seeing significant strength northwards in due course.

The counter argument could of course just be to follow the trend when it turns up and why make matters hard for myself in the interim - I wished I had the answer to that too!!

Originally Posted by kosmas1212

I WAS REALLY PREYING THAT I WILL BE WRONG WHEN 2 DAYS EGO I POST
HERE , THAT TRADING TODAY'S TIMES CURRENCY IS LIKE A DICE...
I AM AFRAID THAT I AM CORRECT ON THIS ONE..
I SEE SO MANY POST THAT MANY PEOPLE START WITH THE WORD (I THINK)
IS GOING 1.29 THE OTHER ONE (I THINK ) IS GOING 1/30 1/40 AND SO OWN...
N O B O D Y CAN PREDICT THE FUTURE!!! I STAR TO REALIZE AFTER THAT I LOST $$$$$
(MAYBE I AM THE ONLY ONE)
AS YOU CAN SEE ALL THE CHARTS IN THE WORLD CAN NOT TELL YOU FOR 50% OR MORE FOR SURE WHERE IS GOING THE EU/US..
LETS HOPE FOR BETTER EASY TIMES LIKE 2005-6 WHEN IT WAS A PIECE OF CAKE!!! GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE...

I don't know about the others but this move so very clear to me. I get lucky sometimes.

Originally Posted by rcopadilla

I don't know about the others but this move so very clear to me. I get lucky sometimes.

We been short all day too but closed out too early (as ever) but still looking for that rocketship north to pay for the cakes - I still got money for lunch Greg!