Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

Originally Posted by Franosh

Hi, Strker. On the other traded dollar index, I think it has another slight higher high, then would meet line resistance, plus 61.8% FIB for some downside. I think Stan on the EW board has a count for daily as big A-B-C that I more or less agree with, as it seems like a C leg of B wave to me. I can see your downside target comes from trendline breakout retest. That looks good. In addition, I am watching ES to hold above 1250/60 area, which is a calculated level, not by lines. If it holds, then a turn around should be there.

I have just gone 3 lots long on euro at 2555 for USD just hit the dual resis at 10207... I do have some standing order for longs at 2520ish zone and there is only one way to find out if the bottom is near.. I be giving a lil bit leverage to myself on the stop for I have a 100+ pipper riding on the south side as well to see if this can bottom around 2522-24 as expecting for a move higher.. Else any failure into aorudn 2590ish is to bail out and set newer shorts in...
Caddie bad baby can indicate as well if the pair wants to reverse for a correction for any close higher on USDCAD above 10280 would be a bad news for it as it would be closing above a major 8 hrs breakout lvl its been holding out pretty much for a yr now..
calculated hedge long on euro plus gu just broke the day low by few pips but finding it hard to follow thru...
Greed is on mind .. no its scalp...... nah its greed.......... nope defo a scalp.......... someone slap me for TO BE OR NOT TO BE is the case here.................
heck let's go with the flow................
gotta chk the EW section out and stan da man counts...................

GL...

Originally Posted by stryker

I think the top is in for a while atleast a temp else a big mad bull rally what do u think....?

Perhaps one more attempt bro to the top side and a failure is to set shorts on USD or basically buy euro / gu and all.. looking at GUAD and EAUD, AUD would stay pressured

Lemme know what u guys n gals out here think..

EW folks... any count for a USD drop to 9910..............
Greg / Alejandro....................

the USD shows descending wedges but breaks higher every freaking time
numerous time on 30 mins and even twice on 8 hrs and thrice on 4 hrs
so i was kinda skeptical this time
plus 1267-70 on SPX im watching for its correction ends

GL...

Hey Stryker,

My charts indicate that we just completed a wave 3 and we are due to a pull back for a wave 4 then an extension upward toward Jupiter or Pluto.

Originally Posted by stryker

I think the top is in for a while atleast a temp else a big mad bull rally what do u think....?

Perhaps one more attempt bro to the top side and a failure is to set shorts on USD or basically buy euro / gu and all.. looking at GUAD and EAUD, AUD would stay pressured

Lemme know what u guys n gals out here think..

EW folks... any count for a USD drop to 9910..............
Greg / Alejandro....................

the USD shows descending wedges but breaks higher every freaking time
numerous time on 30 mins and even twice on 8 hrs and thrice on 4 hrs
so i was kinda skeptical this time
plus 1267-70 on SPX im watching for its correction ends

GL...

You are right that we should expect a high but until we actually have a high then I would be bullish the USD. I was expecting us to hold above 1.26 but we did not. Thankfully I got a signal to short yesterday and today - tomorrow I will continue to be bearish - until I get stopped out.

Applying this strategy has always worked out for me - a good example of this has been the bullish moves in Oil and Gold.

Chart Analysis Forex

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Hey Stryker,

My charts indicate that we just completed a wave 3 and we are due to a pull back for a wave 4 then an extension upward toward Jupiter or Pluto.

Nice ........ So we need to book first class flts to Jupiter or Pluto........ Isn;t Pluto the farthest in out galaxy..... It's been long.. don't remember it that well now.. Old age comes to haunt you......... heck just kidding, still young and looking............. just don't tell my wife.. my younger one told me 3 days back a new mama would be nice and i dunno why but i agree with her.. again don't tell the wifey, we just got new playes and nope they are not paper plates as I was try to talk her into it..
You reminded me of one of my weekly counts to 1.22 and a deeper one to 1.19-1.20.. I need to pull them back up.. I think have it saved some where...
So we have 2 gaps namely in the 28's and 3080ish... Perhaps 3080ish has to wait as it seems but if 2890-2900 can be hit out comes in as a sweet spot to set shorts for a bigger move down... I for once will try the big boyz game of a 2 months wait for the eggs hatching and they better be golden gooses there..........
Thnx Greg................ Appreciate as always and u r last addition of SSI indicating shorts were spot on.......... KUDOS.......unless u prefer MC D............. though Hardeex is what I prefer.................. Upto you............

GL...

EDIT:: Just banked 2 longs euro for 17 pips each... CW golden phrase tag em and bag em''''''''''''''.............. now perfect hedge on loner long and short..

GL...

Originally Posted by turmaz

this is tricky we have a close under 2561 then the very next candle closed above it, now i have no idea what to do, any guess traders??

Obviously the Elephants are watching your posts, and deliberately manipulated the price just to make it totally borderline for your system. Now they are waiting to see if you re-enter short (in which they will push the price up) or long (in which case they will push the price down). If you decide to stay sidelined, they will flip a coin for direction, but move the price by a couple hundred pips just to make you want to shoot yourself for not entering.

Originally Posted by Alejandro Zambrano

You are right that we should expect a high but until we actually have a high then I would be bullish the USD. I was expecting us to hold above 1.26 but we did not. Thankfully I got a signal to short yesterday and today - tomorrow I will continue to be bearish - until I get stopped out.

Applying this strategy has always worked out for me - a good example of this has been the bullish moves in Oil and Gold.

A man with discipline and experience backing it is hard to beat but I can certainly throw a salute or 2.....
For me the downside should continue we keep trading under 2600 or rather max 2622-24 lvl....... have a limit on last long euro at 2595 and let's see if we can head till there......
How far down u see it going.. I expect a faster USD rally up north on a close above the 10210...
GOLD has covered most losses and back into 1560....... Is there a way to comprehend a gold move to FX pairs......?

Anyways I agree till euro can actually show it wants to be higher why not keep on selling it till then....... be spotting some fine spots and hit hedge longs for scalps till then...... sounds like a plan........

GL..

Originally Posted by biggari

hey Alejandro - you've nailed the euro yet again - have you no mercy

Thank you Biggari its easy being a hero when the markets have such a strong bias

Originally Posted by Macplauz

Chart Analysis Forex (EUR/USD)

Please post the analysis and your link - not just the link.

Sorry for just psoting the link. I thought the analysis would take too much space.

Good luck to everyone.



Weekly

On the weekly chart we see that we breached the weekly low at 1.2588 in 2010 and the January low 2012. The recent trendline (green) could not hold the market after the trendline got respected last week. In general a trendline is stronger when the test of it is not so recent after the trendline got created. In our case the trendline came into existence due to the January low 2012 combined with the low in 2010 and this trendline got already tested in May 2012 (much to recent to give strong support). EUR/USD is now clearing the stops below these lows.



Daily
On the daily chart we see that market reached the classical H&S target (EUR/USD Market Analysis (15.05.12)) at about 1.2554. Furthermore this price zone is likely to provide some support due to the 161% fib extension from C-D at E, the 61.80 % fib extension from E-F at G. The clearing of the stops under the recent lows is a natural target of price movement and can give some support - price target reached.



1 hour
Today we had a similar consolidation (blue circle) like yesterday (EUR/USD Market Recap 22.05.12)
(green circle) Both 3-wave consolidations had a lower point B and higher point C, which often preceeds a strong trend continuation. Point B slightly breached the recent lows (blue and pink line) and the weekly S1, monthly S3 but the hourly candle closed at the monthly S3. So the first breakout failed (5 min chart) and market moved up to point C slightly above point A. This fake breakout caught many traders to early who had there limit orders below the low of the strong downward candle from yesterday (breakout traders). However, market did not confirm the first breakout and turned around at the recent lows + the weekly S1 after the slight breach at 9 a.m. GMT and closed above the recent high (point A) to trigger some of their stops (point C). At point C market finished the 3-wave consolidation at the resistance of the 20 SMA (purple line) and went down for the second (true) breakout.
In the Asian session at 1 a.m. GMT the monthly S3 got already touched (weaken), which increased the chance of at least a breach of this level.
Before the true breakout the 2 p.m. hourly candle respected (closed at) the monthly S3 so that the next hourly candle at 3 p.m. could break the monthly S3. The decreasing 10 and 20 SMA (red and purple line) also provided resistance and pushed price down.



5 min
On the 5 min chart we see that the breakout candle 1 at 9.10 a.m. occured just after the prior 5 min candle touched the low from 18th of May (blue line). However, this breakout (blue line) did not get confirmed and market also did not accomplish to close below January's low (pink line) so that market reversed and triggered some stops of the breakout traders by creating a new high.
However, the false breakout weaken the the confluence support level of the monthly S3, weekly S1, daily S1 and the lows of the 18th of May and January due to the breaching so that the second breakout had a high chance to break this support level.

Chart Analysis Forex (EUR/USD)

close above 2591 will 50% confirm that we have a short term bottom in place, the close above 2591 we have 2637 the next number are 2683 and 2729, all numbers are calling for each other just note down these number. they are in sequence. close above any number then you have next and close under you have lower number in place. just write down these number on any paper for reference.

traders all you have a safe and happy trading
regards turmaz!

Originally Posted by Robert Eckert

Obviously the Elephants are watching your posts, and deliberately manipulated the price just to make it totally borderline for your system. Now they are waiting to see if you re-enter short (in which they will push the price up) or long (in which case they will push the price down). If you decide to stay sidelined, they will flip a coin for direction, but move the price by a couple hundred pips just to make you want to shoot yourself for not entering.

no i took long at 2559 hoping for the up move as mentioned in my earlier post!

Originally Posted by turmaz

close above 2591 will 50% confirm that we have a short term bottom in place, the close above 2591 we have 2637 the next number are 2683 and 2729, all numbers are calling for each other just note down these number. they are in sequence. close above any number then you have next and close under you have lower number in place. just write down these number on any paper for reference.

traders all you have a safe and happy trading
regards turmaz!

we just have a first close above 2591 now i hope we get to 2637 atleast!

there is a res down supply line which is matching with my next number 2637 we can see some rejection there!

Originally Posted by turmaz

there is a res down supply line which is matching with my next number 2637 we can see some rejection there!

Thanks for sharing. Good job!!