I have a theory that works some times but not others. I was wondering if anyone can help me figure it out. I have not posted in a long time due to personal obligations.
Here is the theory:
When a pair makes a move either up or down and forms what I call a step pattern (angled up or down move) it creates a level that will eventually be broken. When that level gets broken the pair "should" continue in that direction for a 100% fibo extension from the close of both levels.
Why does this not happen sometimes and what are the probabilities if it working correctly?
Here is a chart of the E/U with the lines.
Please let me know your thoughts.
Thanks
Probably as you have trends in different time frames that some time overlap - thus it will work sometimes and other times not - make sure that the larger time frame allows you to do what you want to do in the short term.
In the past couple of days, I'm glad to announce my gain of 55 pips.......... I did not get caught in the squeeze this morning but I am confused about my next entry. I will have to work through that myself... Maybe some seniors can help shed some light. I have been waiting for a substantial correction. Is it ever gonna come???? Any positive news pushes me off my bear position.
Now as I review my decision, I have again failed to hold my position. If I had held my short for the longer trend, I would be in much better shape at this point. Unfortunately I got caught in the bear trap at our previous low of the year and now have been more cautious.
The learning curve is large indeed. I may try some fingertrap. Still hunting for a suitable style.............
So far the weekly like the daily and the monthly charts continue to paint a bearish picture for the EUR/USD and with each week containing a more bearish weekly range than the last this doesn’t look set to end soon. The USDX has now broken into 19 month highs through the big resistance level at 81.78 and the EUR has broken its previous annual low at 1.2612. Those areas should now morph into resistance/support should risk manage to rally placing a huge line in the sand for the USD to base against and get stronger.
USDX I believe is headed to 83.39-83.48 which is the yearly R1 PP. 83.39 is the 161 ext from 78.57 the most recent low. A good friend that does EW also has this area for a possible target topside
its slowly getting there, then its time to re analysis
1.2623 is the previous 2012 low and remains important, now as resistance. Attempts to rise above this line have been so far stopped . Below, 1.2587 is a clear bottom on the weekly charts but is only minor resistance now.
The round number of 1.25 is of psychological importance, although not so much on the technical level. Another round number is the next support line 1.24. It provided some resistance in June 2010 and is now minor support.
Further below, 1.2330 is another historical line following the global financial meltdown in 2008
its all happened a bit faster than I thought and we never did get any meaningful correction.
market has made some nice moves from PP to PP and respected them very well
ECB is likely to cut rates next week, Credit Agricole says, but a delay is possible as the ECB might want to keep some of its powder dry for after Greece's June 17 elections. Economist Frederik Ducrozet expects a 25 bps cut of the ECB's main refinancing rate but no change in its deposit rate. Whether and how the ECB eases monetary policy will depend not just on Greece but on potential initiatives at the EU and government levels, Ducrozet adds. "A minimum pre-requisite for ECB action would appear to be a commitment to a road map towards greater economic, fiscal and banking integration," he says. The path of least resistance would be rate cuts and more LTROs, rather than sustained SMP bond purchases. "The ECB is unlikely to announce bolder measures...unless the very existence of the euro is at stake," he says.
If a spiker up occurs, just exit, and then reshort. 1.21xx is a long ways down but it's gonna get there. And there will be some down spikes as well.
yep, you have been saying this for awhile now and 1.2144 is already a very strong line on the downside: it was a clear separator two years ago, when Greece received its first bailout.
Ok..... No Problem here is the answer...( See Attachment)
you have been bashed and called unfounded names by some, yet you persist..... dont you think its time to fully explain what has been dubbed the "bacteria charts" and how you think they work?
you have been bashed and called unfounded names by some, yet you persist..... dont you think its time to fully explain what has been dubbed the "bacteria charts" and how you think they work?
Come on, Things are slow and boring but it is not good to encourage garbage postings. It is clearly clueless but wants to posture as if it knew something that us normals can't comprehend. Seen the same kind of posters crop up on every messageboard. Don't feed the ducks.
ECB is likely to cut rates next week, Credit Agricole says, but a delay is possible as the ECB might want to keep some of its powder dry for after Greece's June 17 elections. Economist Frederik Ducrozet expects a 25 bps cut of the ECB's main refinancing rate but no change in its deposit rate. Whether and how the ECB eases monetary policy will depend not just on Greece but on potential initiatives at the EU and government levels, Ducrozet adds. "A minimum pre-requisite for ECB action would appear to be a commitment to a road map towards greater economic, fiscal and banking integration," he says. The path of least resistance would be rate cuts and more LTROs, rather than sustained SMP bond purchases. "The ECB is unlikely to announce bolder measures...unless the very existence of the euro is at stake," he says.
Draghi was surprisingly quick to act with cuts when he started as president and the macro data has disappointed with Germany undercutting inflation expectations at just 1.9% YoY earlier this week, I think they'll cut. No need to keep powder dry now as a rate cut isn't gonna do anything if the Greek election goes badly.
the ECB is doing the right thing by not buying bonds. governments need more time to implement austerity, but they are gonna have to pay with their gold and the governing board is still conservative on monetisation, which is why we have LTRO not European QE
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Originally Posted by NHAppraiser
I did not get caught in the squeeze this morning but I am confused about my next entry. I will have to work through that myself... Maybe some seniors can help shed some light. I have been waiting for a substantial correction. Is it ever gonna come???? Any positive news pushes me off my bear position.
what do you mean with CMP?
, yet you persist..... dont you think its time to fully explain what has been dubbed the "bacteria charts" and how you think they work?
