Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

Originally Posted by rcopadilla

Come on, Things are slow and boring but it is not good to encourage garbage postings. It is clearly clueless but wants to posture as if it knew something that us normals can't comprehend. Seen the same kind of posters crop up on every messageboard. Don't feed the ducks.

my sister had ducks in her yard when she first moved to florida yrs ago, thought they were 'cute' so she fed them. long story short all they did was sh!t everywhere on everything in her backyard so it was impossible to walk without stepping in duck sh!t...we shot every last on of them and everyone that followed and the problem was solved. Good thing she was out in the country.

its like the tourists that come to florida and feed the seagulls and think its 'cute' until the damn things decide to swoop in and take your lunch or worse yet drop bombs on them when they do stop feeding them...it can be fun to watch

Hi,
This is my first post, I have been reading posts the past couple of days and yes markets are coiling we have nfp on friday but tomorrow ireland vote on EU fiscal treaty referendum as to comply with our constitution. I realise that in the bigger financial scale we are tiny but our past politicians, bankers have caused some serious problems for europe. I am just warning watch tomorrow shorts and longs anytime between 5pm gmt to 10PM GMT. I could be wrong but watch for swing. If you have a yes, well you still have recession Ireland and a no vote you still have recession ireland but next year another greece!

Of the 25 times since 13th February this year when - as on Wednesday - EUR/USD has ended a session within 30 pips of the day's low, only one recovered to end the next day with a net gain of more than 40 pips

EUR/USD finished Wednesday 75 pips lower at 1.2410 UK time

It was the lowest closing level seen in the 498 sessions since Wednesday 30th June 2010

A close on Thursday below 1.2350 would make May's fall the biggest since at least May 2010 (when EUR/USD dropped 7.7%)

Above 1.2445/60, resistance is expected on Thursday at 1.2480 and 1.2515: Look for support at 1.2335/45 and 1.2290

Originally Posted by CodyB

my sister had ducks in her yard when she first moved to florida yrs ago, thought they were 'cute' so she fed them. long story short all they did was sh!t everywhere on everything in her backyard so it was impossible to walk without stepping in duck sh!t...we shot every last on of them and everyone that followed and the problem was solved. Good thing she was out in the country.

its like the tourists that come to florida and feed the seagulls and think its 'cute' until the damn things decide to swoop in and take your lunch or worse yet drop bombs on them when they do stop feeding them...it can be fun to watch

That is a good story. Funny as well.

It is important to give people the benefit of the doubt to allow for differences in culture, background, age, education, etc... But once the doubt is removed, put the garbage on ignore and move on.

This kind of action is where scalpers do better than swing traders. As a scalper, do you have any suggestions for the newbies? The best suggestion is to just trade with the trend. So if you make a timing mistake, the trend will eventually help you out and erase the mistake.

Originally Posted by Sang_froid

CMP gnrly means current market price, more often used for stock quotes

Nice you taught me something new today

Originally Posted by ssdbsnl

Hi Alejandro

Why din't you answer the query ?

Ok..... No Problem here is the answer...( See Attachment)

Hello, are you referring to Svalas's question about the spike?

London session review and outlook May 30 - 2012
Review of markets covered in today's edition of Bulls vs. Bears: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, FTSE100, S&P500, Gold, Brent Crude and WTI.




Regards

Alejandro Zambrano
Currency Strategist | DailyFX Forum (London)
azambrano@fxcm.com

Follow me on twitter: https://twitter.com/AlejandroDFX


Joining DailyFX Forum is free and offers an extended range of features, including: Replying to other peoples' threads and receiving email notification of replies to posts and threads you specify. Click here to join.

Since it's come this far, it might just visit 2040.

Cody, what is puzzling and different of this run to the down side compared to that of May 2010 is that it didn't really retrace any reasonable range. In May 2010 it was bouncing along 'normally' all the time.

Originally Posted by rcopadilla

If a spiker up occurs, just exit, and then reshort. 1.21xx is a long ways down but it's gonna get there. And there will be some down spikes as well.

You haven't posted a chart lately with your projection unless I've missed it. However, I use your and turmac's multi-BBs and while other were giving their low projections yesterday, it was the 240M and 480M multi-BBs that were right on! Those were the ones I was watching. Thanks to both of you.

I also see where you're getting your 1.21xx projection on my wk. chart. Pretty amazing.

Originally Posted by CodyB

you have been bashed and called unfounded names by some, yet you persist..... dont you think its time to fully explain what has been dubbed the "bacteria charts" and how you think they work?

Sochte reh jaoge..... Just pronounce it and ask some Indian what does it mean.

Originally Posted by rcopadilla

That is a good story. Funny as well.

It is important to give people the benefit of the doubt to allow for differences in culture, background, age, education, etc... But once the doubt is removed, put the garbage on ignore and move on.

This kind of action is where scalpers do better than swing traders. As a scalper, do you have any suggestions for the newbies? The best suggestion is to just trade with the trend. So if you make a timing mistake, the trend will eventually help you out and erase the mistake.

Identifiable EUR/USD price patterns

30-minute price openings
How many pips moved in 24-hour period?
How many pips moved between London and NY opening?
Price attempts - how many times did it attempt to go up or go down?
To what speed and degree is the euro moving?
What kind of momentum can been seen? How much energy is being exerted to move it?
What time of day is the euro moving?
Are the price movements erratic and spiking? Are the price movements orderly?
What was the price at when the euro started moving? Was it at the 00 level, 50 level, or other?
How many pips has it already moved as it approaches the next 00 or 50 level?
What kind of momentum does the price action display as it approaches the next 00 or 50 level?
When was the last time we were at this level?
How many times have we been at this level and what was the result?

How to Answer those Questions:

How to Answer those Questions:

30-minute openings - are we opening higher every 30-minutes or are we opening lower every 30-minutes?
After an up or down move of 220+ pips
We're in a price zone where stops are sitting
After five or more attempts at breaking to either the downside or upside
Timing - time of day will answer many price action questions…
Session patterns - what is the price pattern when Frankfurt and London opens?
Is Frankfurt the "sucker session" today, this week?
Post-NY and pre-Tokyo spikes - stop hunts - trade counter to the spike

now these are ONLY to show what you are looking for not specific answers to the questions, day to day its always different

I rely heavily on Pivots, daily, weekly and monthly, as described in my PDF S/R is when enough people believe in something they can have an effect when they act on that belief. LOTS of people watch Pivots, its why price respects them. PP's 2 and 3 more so then PP 1

I also draw my fibs on any big sustained move over 50 pip and look for the retracements and trade the 38.2. If the EU retraces the MIN 23.6 and goes no further then the next target will most likely be the 161.8 of the last move

when it gets really slow and you still have an itch to trade you can use the median PP's combined with PA, stops and targets to be above/below prior/previous PP's in these cases same as always

and the daily ADR which right now for the past 15 TD's has been 97 pips. Once we have reached the ADR you can look for better CT trades, its not going much farther without some macro geopolitical event or in todays market, sound bite...moving it further. Today we have reached that point.

then drop down to the TF you prefer to scalp from and be patient, choose your price and let the market come to you. for me thats the 15 and 5 min..5 min you need to know how to filter out the noise..

and there are times when simple PA on a 5 min or 15 min candle can be scalped up and down for 3 to 7 pips a pop

Originally Posted by EuroTraderApp

Interestingly, Euro fluctuations historically have resulted in the currency overshooting PPP (c. 1.11-1.14 levels) by 1 standard deviation at-least. This means that a drop from current levels could actually result in a 1.05 (ish) level. 2 standard deviations would put the currency at around 0.9 levels (the low was hit in October 2000 and was 0.823).

That's not me saying Euro is headed for parity - in fact I would be very wary of aggressively shorting here. It was precisely 2 years ago this time (end May, 2010) where CFTC data showed near-record short positions in the Euro. Increasing desire for diversification resulted in further Euro selling. Nordea bank had put a 50% chance on the Euro hitting parity.

And we all know what happened to the Euro in the next year (almost touched 1.50..).

Midas

Any drop down to 1.10. 1.00, etc. I would view as a "panic drop" that should result in a sharp correction. But of course we could easily see such panics in the face of more bad political news. Volatility has always been high for the euro, largely because ECB really does not function very well as a central bank. If it starts to take a firmer hand, it might start to stabilize the currency, except that there has been such a large reservoir of distrust built up that mass movements in the markets cannot be controlled just by jawboning from an institution of such low credibility. The Lisbon Treaty under which it operates was a horribly poor piece of draftsmanship, but the Eurocrats would not take No for an answer when the populace responded negatively. Major revisions in the whole legal structure are what is really required to establish faith in the euro, but have they finally reached the point where they realize that "kick the can" is not a viable strategy? We will see. I am personally cynical, and know that I am far from alone.

Originally Posted by ssdbsnl

Sochte reh jaoge..... Just pronounce it and ask some Indian what does it mean.

you are now on ignore, being a smarta$$ serves no purpose in this business

I also see where you're getting your 1.21xx projection on my wk. chart. Pretty amazing.

1.2144 is already a very strong line on the downside: it was a clear separator two years ago, when Greece received its first bailout. BELOW there..... The round number of 1.20 is of course highly important as a psychological level. Below that and you have the 2010 low of 1.1876, before the launch value of the euro at 1.17 to the dollar in 1999.

Originally Posted by CodyB

you are now on ignore, being a smarta$$ serves no purpose in this business

Ditto on ignore.