Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

Originally Posted by Alejandro Zambrano

EUR/USD June 1 - 2012


EUR/USD continues to drop but found some support when reaching 1.23. Any bounce that does not exceed above 1.24 will probably be used to enter short positions. I expect price to reach 1.2275.

We need to remember that today is Non farm payrolls Friday. Markets will be volatile and price can decrease or increase with as much as 50 to 100 pips after the publication of the NFP report. An outcome that is better than expected would in general weaken the US Dollar as this would increase risk appetite and vice versa.

Same view here, I placed a pending short on 1.2347 just to be shure, I hope we will reach that before the NFP, and the go all the way down :-)

Originally Posted by Alejandro Zambrano

EUR/USD June 1 - 2012


EUR/USD continues to drop but found some support when reaching 1.23. Any bounce that does not exceed above 1.24 will probably be used to enter short positions. I expect price to reach 1.2275.

We need to remember that today is Non farm payrolls Friday. Markets will be volatile and price can decrease or increase with as much as 50 to 100 pips after the publication of the NFP report. An outcome that is better than expected would in general weaken the US Dollar as this would increase risk appetite and vice versa.

If you can any questions about this scenario or anything else trading related feel free to write to me here on the forum.

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EUR/USD 60 min chart


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Does that only go for the NFP? If the number is greater than expected it makes the EUR/USD go up? Trying to figure out what economic data would help the EUR/USD or hurt it.

Thanks,
Morris

Originally Posted by Morris

Does that only go for the NFP? If the number is greater than expected it makes the EUR/USD go up? Trying to figure out what economic data would help the EUR/USD or hurt it.

Thanks,
Morris

probably get more about nfp at 11.30 webinar

i intend to close all positions 30 mins before nfp - and start my weekend early

Chosen to hold the short position again

Looking for 1.2260 as todays target........

Hey Morris, interesting question, in this current environment a beat on NFP would likely result in more dollar buying (as opposed to risk-on trade causing dollar weakness) and thus EUR/USD weakness. It of course depends on the extent of the beat. Counterintuitively, in the last two months, weaker US macro data has resulted in weakness in the dollar owing to the higher probability of QE3 which would erode the value of the dollar (which is now most likely largely priced in - i.e market participants expect it).

On another note, I found it interesting that the yield on the German 2's went to sub 0 for the first time (i.e you're paying the German gov for return OF capital and obtaining no return on capital for the duration of the hold). German 10's at c. 1.01%, Japan at 0.9%.

Some magic numbers and dates:
RSI's on Euro now at Lehman '08 levels.
June 4th and the few days following this are pivotal for Spain as the IMF's review (which commences on the 4th) will better determine the extent of bailout required for Spain.
Close to EUR 66bn withdrawn from Spain in March alone.
June 17th - the big day! (although our man on the battlefield in Greece tells us that sometime in the next two weeks, the Greeks will soon be informed that close to 10% of their annual tax-back claims will be withheld this year, thus triggering a round of riots)

All in all - great environment to be long volatility, and we continue to short the common currency on rallies. Long dollar on further room for the safe haven trade especially on the shorter end of the curve + belly of the curve (2s, 5s). 10 years in a post operation TWIST world look richly priced as it is, but we don't hold it for impossible that further yield compression happens.
Midas

I wonder if the NFP results will flush down the EURUSD... what do you guys think?

Originally Posted by Bart3s

I wonder if the NFP results will flush down the EURUSD... what do you guys think?

Hello Bart3s,
Great question! I think the trend will persist so any rally will be met with selling

Originally Posted by turmaz

i think we might get 2293/96

i heard ppl are saying that the big boys want a "controlled default to euro"

OR

"controlled DROP to euro currency"

Hi Greg,

Thanks for the info

Originally Posted by Andie

Hi Greg,

Thanks for the info

You are welcome Andie! Are you trading anything now or are you just standing aside? Jobs report in a few minutes.

Last NFP Goldman Sachs was in the money.

NFP Forecasts for today:

From Goldman Sachs: 125,000

And from Merrill Lynch: 140,000

Yep: High was in Jan '12

150k is the average expectation for today. 8.1% unemployment rate (key here will be labor participation rate and if its this that has cosmetically driven the rate down).
Midas

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

You are welcome Andie! Are you trading anything now or are you just standing aside? Jobs report in a few minutes.

I'm looking to seel the euro on a bounce. I am hoping for 1.24

Originally Posted by Andie

I'm looking to seel the euro on a bounce. I am hoping for 1.24

Yea Andie, that would be a nice gift. Just draw a rising trend line and sell the break below it. Nice and simple! But a real low number could just send the Euro straight down