Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

got 5 min negative divergence right by the daily pivot. although a move lower is likely. there is support @ 1.2425 (4 hour pivot) where i expect price to respect and head higher, (a break of daily pivot upside would be nice)

on a mid term chart, if we able to get back above weekly pivot on a 4 hour close (@ 1.2450), then very possible we get a move higher for another higher high towards the 1.26 level......
just my thoughts......

all the best

Anyone see a hs formation carving out on the 1hr. I am not feeling confident with my long position.

G7 statement: they will continue to co-operate. That's it??? Are there any grownups in the room?

Originally Posted by Robert Eckert

I expect them to bring out a bazooka and shoot themselves in the foot. Seriously. Spain says they want the bailout fund to have the power to recapitalize banks directly; Germany then says the governments have to do it; subtext is that the nationalization of Bankia has been such a horrid experience (they were expecting the kid to track mud all over the carpets, but not to vomit on the floor) that the Spanish government wants to keep all the banks at arm's length; so then EU comes out with statements that "there are no differences whatsoever" on the question of how to approach this-- yeah, right.

In sum: nobody anywhere is willing to take the losses-- but somebody HAS to take the losses; all the trillions of euro-denominated assets need a 10% haircut, and it just can't be done, so it won't be done, and the continental economy will be allowed to slide into the pit instead.. Germany's "slight" miss in the manufacturing numbers, as you characterized it, was more than a "slight" thing in my view: I was looking for Germany to fall into contraction as demand in the other countries dries up, but I didn't think it would be until late in the year and apparently it has started already.

I still don't get it. OK, so the central bank in Australia states that the European troubles are bad and are likely to affect everybody else: yeah? Was there anybody in the market who didn't know that already? In other news, Bernanke predicts that the sun will continue to rise in the east each morning, in a somewhat more northerly position until the solstice on the 21st, then gradually adjusting its position southward; market panics. I don't get why the market reacts sharply to the totally expected, and shrugs off unexpected ominous developments like Germany dipping toward recession and picking a public fight with Spain.

It was nice. I expanded short position and pulled the stops way down to get out if it went even 10 pips up; opening bell at New York went up 25 pips in a minute, so everything closed with profits locked in. Will re-enter in a little while; presently making a little money riding USD/CAD down a few pips.

We need some word other than "correction" for a market move in the "wrong" direction. Yes, it's natural that the downtrend be interrupted with some ups for everybody to catch their breaths (and, though it is hard for us to remember sometimes, aside from all the speculative buys and sells there are actual businesses who need to buy and sell euros for practical reasons that have to do with actual goods being manufactured and sold). But when the euro remains 1300 pips above its purchase power and 300-500 above what the continent can even survive with, it continues to feel very "wrong" to me everytime it goes up at all.

Yes, I've had that feeling of magical powers, the ability to turn a trend around on a dime and sent it skyrocketing just by making a play.

*shrug* fundamentals remain that the continent is sliding into depression while the Eurocrats play Keystone Kops. G7 will make some statement today which will be heavily parsed for signs of whether there are real actions being taken or just cheery BS propagated (my bet is on the latter).

Is the SSI flipping directions from day-to-day more often than usual? It seems like it was just recently that EUR/USD was record short, but maybe there is no more volatility than usual.

Robert, maybe instead of analyzing the fundis so in depth looking for the answers to the market moves, why not just trade the charts in front of you. I do not know a fundamental trader myself. I know traders that news trade only but not intraday traders.
plot your fibs and use whatever works best for you to spot S/R points and trade what you see. Trying to make sense out of the FX market and make it fit into a mold where everything fits and can be explained just cant be done.

Dont stop posting the fundis but stop trying to figure it all out through them

as long as we do not make a new low from here I favor a move towards 1.26. All the major risk pairs are similar.

Originally Posted by ssdbsnl

If you are testing then Go for long from here. ( It is long till the Blue Arrows are there, May be short term or correction)

Hi Colly...................................,nice chart

Originally Posted by CodyB

as long as we do not make a new low from here I favor a move towards 1.26. All the major risk pairs are similar.

agreed but i be scalpin her up

I looking for 2475... so far

Originally Posted by Robert Eckert

I expect them to bring out a bazooka and shoot themselves in the foot. Seriously. Spain says they want the bailout fund to have the power to recapitalize banks directly; Germany then says the governments have to do it; subtext is that the nationalization of Bankia has been such a horrid experience (they were expecting the kid to track mud all over the carpets, but not to vomit on the floor) that the Spanish government wants to keep all the banks at arm's length; so then EU comes out with statements that "there are no differences whatsoever" on the question of how to approach this-- yeah, right.

In sum: nobody anywhere is willing to take the losses-- but somebody HAS to take the losses; all the trillions of euro-denominated assets need a 10% haircut, and it just can't be done, so it won't be done, and the continental economy will be allowed to slide into the pit instead.. Germany's "slight" miss in the manufacturing numbers, as you characterized it, was more than a "slight" thing in my view: I was looking for Germany to fall into contraction as demand in the other countries dries up, but I didn't think it would be until late in the year and apparently it has started already.

I still don't get it. OK, so the central bank in Australia states that the European troubles are bad and are likely to affect everybody else: yeah? Was there anybody in the market who didn't know that already? In other news, Bernanke predicts that the sun will continue to rise in the east each morning, in a somewhat more northerly position until the solstice on the 21st, then gradually adjusting its position southward; market panics. I don't get why the market reacts sharply to the totally expected, and shrugs off unexpected ominous developments like Germany dipping toward recession and picking a public fight with Spain.

It was nice. I expanded short position and pulled the stops way down to get out if it went even 10 pips up; opening bell at New York went up 25 pips in a minute, so everything closed with profits locked in. Will re-enter in a little while; presently making a little money riding USD/CAD down a few pips.

We need some word other than "correction" for a market move in the "wrong" direction. Yes, it's natural that the downtrend be interrupted with some ups for everybody to catch their breaths (and, though it is hard for us to remember sometimes, aside from all the speculative buys and sells there are actual businesses who need to buy and sell euros for practical reasons that have to do with actual goods being manufactured and sold). But when the euro remains 1300 pips above its purchase power and 300-500 above what the continent can even survive with, it continues to feel very "wrong" to me everytime it goes up at all.

Yes, I've had that feeling of magical powers, the ability to turn a trend around on a dime and sent it skyrocketing just by making a play.

*shrug* fundamentals remain that the continent is sliding into depression while the Eurocrats play Keystone Kops. G7 will make some statement today which will be heavily parsed for signs of whether there are real actions being taken or just cheery BS propagated (my bet is on the latter).

Is the SSI flipping directions from day-to-day more often than usual? It seems like it was just recently that EUR/USD was record short, but maybe there is no more volatility than usual.

i just tried to reply to all these...... But i aint got the time while trading to read it all ???? wow that some typing and pasting goin on there ...lol

Robert Eckert, please don't stop analyzing in depth regarding the currency market and giving your thoughts on what is going on. Your insight and knowledge is invaluable.

Originally Posted by cw1

i just tried to reply to all these...... But i aint got the time while trading to read it all ???? wow that some typing and pasting goin on there ...lol

We need to create a DailyFX app where we call can logon and just chat it out - goes quicker

Originally Posted by CodyB

Robert, maybe instead of analyzing the fundis so in depth looking for the answers to the market moves, why not just trade the charts in front of you.

Because the charts don't make a lick of sense to me. In other pairs I get some idea looking at the ups and downs which is more likely to happen next; euro just seems to toss a coin. I close out my shorts when it looks like it is about to go back up, and the bottom falls out; I re-enter when the up moves have stopped, and it turns out it was just pausing for a renewed shove up. Looking at the numbers seems to be a complete waste of time with this pair.

I would be careful of shorts in light of new two-way risk in the short-term (Stemming from the earlier G7 conference call, the ECB meeting Wednesday and Fed Chair
Bernanke's testimony Thursday). Going out further, there is the June 17
Greek election, the Fed decision June 20, a G20 leaders summit June
18/19 and a EU Leaders Council meeting June 28-29. "Bernanke's testimony
and FOMC meeting will focus on the potential for more Fed easing,
while the EU Leaders meeting will concentrate on the potential for
a more comprehensive EU policy response, Even "minor
positives" could spark unwinds given that the market is "very"
defensively positioned right now.

Originally Posted by Robert Eckert

Because the charts don't make a lick of sense to me. In other pairs I get some idea looking at the ups and downs which is more likely to happen next; euro just seems to toss a coin. I close out my shorts when it looks like it is about to go back up, and the bottom falls out; I re-enter when the up moves have stopped, and it turns out it was just pausing for a renewed shove up. Looking at the numbers seems to be a complete waste of time with this pair.

lately you are correct, there are better pairs to trade that are more technical and not so sound bite driven as the EU is right now.

on any trade you take, win or lose, journal it and go back to it later but once you close out that trade, its done, its over so never second guess yourself right then, move on to the next trade or you will let emotions into your trading and thats not a good thing. Even if the bottom drops out, oh well, cant change anything now so move on.
This is why we journal every move so we can go back later and see what went wrong or right to tweak how we trade and see charts. I hope this makes sense

something that I do for myself is when I have a losing trade, I move to another pair to keep me from second guessing myself. I will then go back from my journal notes later. Its part of the emotional game we all must master if we are to succeed in this business....i really hope this helps

Evening Star Bearish Reversal Pattern
on US 10-Year Treasury Could Mean Higher Euro, Cable, Aussie, etc.

As the the risk appetite currencies have been selling off, investors have been fleeing to the perceived safety of the US 10 year Treasury sending yields down to historic lows. The price, as indicated in the attached chart has risen as the yield has fallen. However, we can clearly see a bearish Japanese candlestick pattern called an Evening Star on the daily US 10-year Treasury price chart that should get Euro bulls and other risk appetiters excited.

Because of the inverse correlation, as we see the price of the 10 year bond fall while yields rise, we could see the Euro, Aussie, Cable and Kiwi rise. In addition, we could see the dollar and yen fall.

I'd like Franosh's opinion as he is hour resident 'Bondmeister', as well as anyone else that would like to chime in on this one

Originally Posted by Dimake

rcop maybe u said this many times, but which is ur TF for enter and exit from the market
I also adopted ur bb60 and keep it under observation, but I applied it on short-medium TF like 30 min

thank you

Once the exit/entry setup has developed on the slower timeframes, I use the 1min and/or Tick timeframes for the actual exit/entries .