Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

Originally Posted by NHAppraiser

Going out on a limb here and making a prediction.
12:55 EST buy the E/U at 1.2435 with a TP at 1.2455 and SL at 1.2425 for a 2:1 ratio.
Thoughts?

3:45 EST, based on the consolidation, it should be about ready to pop. Probably to around 1.2460

we manage to beak, would be still bullish with price. by the way price is moving with the 200 MA, plus the 30 min chart looks nice for a move up, we kinda get something like this me thinks.
im really bearish if price gets below 1.2430 on a 4 hour close.


what you think? you short or long.

(rising wedge on USD 15 min we kinda broke?)

Originally Posted by Nature Boy

Hello Stryker

Euro/Usd is still a BIG FAT BEAR which will gobble up any amount of money the Euro Zone print or borrow to lend to its debt plagued members. This monstrous bear will just take the billions on offer into its grizzly paws with the classical "K nine" smile and then swallow every bit as soon as the lenders turn their backs. An appreciative belch will then follow before the BEAR begins to give its thunderous threatening roar to rip the Euro Zone apart if it is not given trillions more. G8 meetings are a waste of time and money which would be better spent buying food to feed the starving jobless people in Greece. Someone should tell all those G8 members who are calling and arranging so many useless meetings to go back to elementary school to learn to count from zero to nine and say ABC.

Nature Boy!! You are way out of line and down-right rude. By your own admission you are a fool. How dare you suggest that intelligent world leaders many of whom have a PHD should go back to elementary school? I would never detest my sublime stupidity, but I am prepared to go to court to argue the true meaning of the acronym "PHD". While for some it means Doctor of Philosophy, stupid me thinks PHD means Permanent Head Damage. The World is F***UP not because of stupid people like myself, but because brilliant PHD graduates with positions of authority have designed clever plans that no one including themselves can understand. The only thing clear about these clever plans and astute implementation is that they are wreaking havoc on the lives of companies, countries and billions of individuals with no credible rescue or get out route. The CLEVER ones didn't even make a plan to save their own ASSES. I am glad I am not smart enough to get my Permanent Head Damage - PHD. Therefore I cannot explain what America will do when it sits on top of a pile of heavily indebted countries ironically with the world's most expensive currency in its hands. The US Dollar will be the chief beneficiary from this already happening Financial Armageddon? Debt and death will be laid to rest in the same grave.

The million dollar question is who will rescue or bury the world's indebted countries? Did some say China? If China chooses to rescue then China will become one of them. If it decides to bury them its desire for economic and world dominance becomes a meaningless victory since there will be little or no one left to buy its mass produced goods. PHD of the Ben Bernanke type never fails to amaze me, because they make even stupid me look smart. I hate being smart if it is tantamount to being complicated. I can't help wondering if all "PHDS" are dyslexic? How does “Doctor of Philosophy,” gets the acronym PHD? Which other time are we humans asked to read or interpret the meaning of an acronym from right to left and not from left to right? How comes they forget to tell us what is the meaning of the "H" in PHD. No wonder why these people tend to do and see things backwards. If you are a proud holder of a Doctor of Philosophy Degree and you feel offended reading this, then you really have a PHD - Permanent Head Damage. However if you find yourself genuinely at ease or even laughing then you have a Doctor of Philosophy - DOP.

The financial globe is on the verge of a cataclysmic collapse and PHD is a primary contributing factor. We urgently need to get rid of them and fill the void with some fools smarter than myself and a few DOP - Doctors of Philosophy - to rescue a bad situation which will and must cause severe pain to many if not all. This cohort of new world leaders must be able to count from zero to nine and say at least the first three letters of the alphabet - ABC. This basic knowledge will give them the ability to read and understand the various financial markets and how they operate. When where, what and how to invest will then become as easy as ABC so that the people whom they represent will enjoy a prosperous future. Whether you are in or out of political power you can know with certainty what will happen in any market simply by counting from 0-9 and then say ABC. Observe the attached E/U charts and start practice ignoring PHD politicians and news and you will never be fooled which way the markets will and must go.

My CD Wave Theory is saying it is impossible for the EUR/USD not to decline to a minimum of 1.1434. A sizable relief rally will come but only after E/U breaks 1.2200. The principle of wave equality AB = CD is indicating that E/U is targeting 1.2183 (See Daily chart). Buying E/u before that level break is risky and only for scalping purpose. Finally E/U will not revisit 1.3485 unless it finishes the task of crushing 1.1434. No amount of political talks, G8 meetings, moral suasion, money printing or borrowing will stop this from happening. The decision is already made and humans don't have a say in it anymore. This decision was made by a force mightier than all humans on earth combine. That force is Mother Nature and one of his foolish sons - Nature Boy- is telling you so. Watch and see. Enjoy the charts.

One thing I learned in this mkt is that nothing is impossible........... Just when u expect the least something pops on and things go haywire..... while I'm glad I'm not a holder of any PHD neither DOP, but have to give it to you for it was very well written with sarcasm all over the place..
As for euro and where it is going and whether 1.14 comes first or 38 means nothing to me.. first off all, I'm an intra day trader.. I like to look at bigger picture but I don't have patient neither the guts to go all out and wait on the trade for weeks / months to see a bigger tgt getting done...
I also see 1.13XX on euro .. I posted a week back a weekly outlook with 2 scenario.. Both calls in that a break of 1.2000 lvl have a structural tgt of 1.1340-60 on the move...
I have been mentioning past week or so that I'm actually tracking USD and making assumption on FX pairs based on what I think USD might do in short term..
I still see a 4 hrs USD possible HNS intact and charts shows that view.. A move higher to 2630 on euro if coming could take it higher to 28XX b4 the fall u r looking for under 22XX... Unless USD is not making the break at the neck I expect it to continue up north and probably would start trending even faster....
That is when it happens and there is a good chance I be on the boat....... I had a plan to hit longs on euro around 2300 lvl .. I illustrated and explain the whole setup..
Anyways......... I think you are a very longer term player......... I'm not.......... I also believe you have a very wide stops in place for ur trade... I don't and mostly my stops are tighter by all standards...
Lastly.......... back on gold, there is an increasing chance that the bull flag on 30 mins gold I posted is about to break higher...
Gold has a structural tgt of 1760-70 on a clean break higher to 1640.. 1658-60 to be the confirmation of that break.........
I once again not saying euro won't or can't go to 1.13, rather I'm saying when euro starts to trend back to the lower side I be on that train.............
As for clues. I had a post on start of March that SPX will top off at 1424 and have a corrective drop to 1265... 4 days later SPX hit a high of 1424.. It hit the tgt at 1265 yesterday... Now whether the correction is all on it is debatable, but I like to see a temp bottom been formed on it for a move to 1340.... IF SPX has finished its correction and Gold made it true on 1525 supp I posted weeks back combine with the fact that we have a bear channel top coming in around 1640 for today and declining modestly by few pips each day as very close by......... hence if the current moves are corrective in nature, I would like to make some on that direction.. and get back to the trendy side when the signs are there that it has resume..

GL...

Originally Posted by stryker

One thing I learned in this mkt is that nothing is impossible........... Just when u expect the least something pops on and things go haywire..... while I'm glad I'm not a holder of any PHD neither DOP, but have to give it to you for it was very well written with sarcasm all over the place..
As for euro and where it is going and whether 1.14 comes first or 38 means nothing to me.. first off all, I'm an intra day trader.. I like to look at bigger picture but I don't have patient neither the guts to go all out and wait on the trade for weeks / months to see a bigger tgt getting done...
I also see 1.13XX on euro .. I posted a week back a weekly outlook with 2 scenario.. Both calls in that a break of 1.2000 lvl have a structural tgt of 1.1340-60 on the move...
I have been mentioning past week or so that I'm actually tracking USD and making assumption on FX pairs based on what I think USD might do in short term..
I still see a 4 hrs USD possible HNS intact and charts shows that view.. A move higher to 2630 on euro if coming could take it higher to 28XX b4 the fall u r looking for under 22XX... Unless USD is not making the break at the neck I expect it to continue up north and probably would start trending even faster....
That is when it happens and there is a good chance I be on the boat....... I had a plan to hit longs on euro around 2300 lvl .. I illustrated and explain the whole setup..
Anyways......... I think you are a very longer term player......... I'm not.......... I also believe you have a very wide stops in place for ur trade... I don't and mostly my stops are tighter by all standards...
Lastly.......... back on gold, there is an increasing chance that the bull flag on 30 mins gold I posted is about to break higher...
Gold has a structural tgt of 1760-70 on a clean break higher to 1640.. 1658-60 to be the confirmation of that break.........
I once again not saying euro won't or can't go to 1.13, rather I'm saying when euro starts to trend back to the lower side I be on that train.............
As for clues. I had a post on start of March that SPX will top off at 1424 and have a corrective drop to 1265... 4 days later SPX hit a high of 1424.. It hit the tgt at 1265 yesterday... Now whether the correction is all on it is debatable, but I like to see a temp bottom been formed on it for a move to 1340.... IF SPX has finished its correction and Gold made it true on 1525 supp I posted weeks back combine with the fact that we have a bear channel top coming in around 1640 for today and declining modestly by few pips each day as very close by......... hence if the current moves are corrective in nature, I would like to make some on that direction.. and get back to the trendy side when the signs are there that it has resume..

GL...

would love to read ( since i have similar view) but im off to bed.
just saying love the charts, love the charts....

Originally Posted by Franosh

Hey, Clifton NatureBoy. You shall be accused of plagiarism on the meaning of Ph.D..... My friends and I (especially those on engineering related subjects) have been using it to denote 'permanent head damage' for years.....

Get a bit more orignal, and a find a new one for your CD theory

(The acronym came from the original Latin title: philosophiae doctor)

Hi Franosh

The alleged wisest man King Solomon said in the Bible, "There is nothing new under the sun". The implication is that everything is a cycle or a repeat of what was done before. You and I are not new and neither is anything that the markets are currently doing. When I first thought of PHD to mean Permanent Head Damage I did not read or heard it being used that way by someone else before. However I have used it a few times to some people as a joke. Subsequently I have gone to places and heard others whom I did not tell or know using it the same way therefore the thought could not be unique to just me.

Cheers

some interesting charts in the gartley pattern thread - worth a gander

@ Nature boy..
this is as simple as it can be on tech play where the short term trend is pointing to..
Eur 4 hrs and 2 explanation on the same chart.. you can read within the charts..

In short for EUR session we be either to around 2370 or to around 2500.. As long as the price is above the breakout lvl, this is a long play....... Perhaps eyes on USD as whether it wants to head lower to complete the HNS by breaking the neck or not...
The pattern play suggest we should be able to post a newer high even by 1 pip higher to the Tuesday high........
2572-75 battle if coming into play would be an interesting one......... I would suspect a lot of selling interest intact there..
Anyways I'm long euro / aud and SPX...... held gold but like yesterday it played dead...

GL...

Fellow traders,

Lou tells Bud in Wallstreet: "Man looks in the abyss, there's nothing staring back at him. At that moment, man finds his character. And that is what keeps him out of the abyss"

Could this be any more apt when considering the situation the Eurozone finds itself in?

An interesting statistic caught our eye today: "The ECB allotted €119.37 billion in seven-day funds at its weekly main refinancing operation at a fixed rate of 1.00%, more than double from the €51.176 billion allotted at last week's tender. The number of bidders at the weekly operation was 96, up from 87 a week earlier." (source: WSJ). Remember this is an unlimited funding window, and the ECB can, in theory, print as much as money as they want. This isn't a fix to anything, its tantamount to economic suicide somewhere down the road. The goal is, sadly, to "kick the can down the road".

Spain

This is amidst Spain's open cries for help (literally on a local radio channel) - where the Spanish budget minister Cristobal Montoro admitted a) the country is swiftly losing acess to the capital markets owing to rising sovereign credit spreads and b) a EU banking union is needed swiftly inorder to allow a direct capital injection by the ESM into ailing Spanish banks. He is "hopeful" that this happens by the end of this month. Given Merkel and some of her Dutch/Austrian counterparts have ruled this technically impossible at this stage and given Spain auctions paper on the 7th, 19th, 21st and 26th of this month, the country might find itself using more than just a local radio channel to voice its cries for help in search for a 11th hour solution.

Meanwhile - G7 meeting today: nada - apart from the fact that leaders present agreed to agree that the situation was more dire and need for solution finding, more immediate.

Greece

We haven't even touched upon Greece and the potentially massive systemic spike that could be triggered in periphery yields if the country undershoots its fund-raising auction target on the 12th and votes Left on the 17th (interestingly, the results of the auction on the 12th would have immediate knock-on effects on the election outcome on the 17th). Watch the bid/cover ratio + the yield at which the auction completes. Prominent banks put the risk of a Leftist Syriza party win at 40%, Pro-Bailout New Dem at 40% and a whopping 20% chance of a stalemate (that is a dangerous outcome in itself resulting in more dealys and thus more Vol in the market). The bond auction on the 19th is an afterthought. The 12th and the election on the 17th will likely decide the flavour of the fund-raisings to come.

Portugal

Yes, Portugal. Getting a tad bit too quiet out of this PIIG? What does Neve Campbell do in Scream just before she knows the killer is coming for her? She hides, cringes and goes all quiet around a kitchen cupboard knowing that doom is pending. Portugal is doing what they can to deflect attention because they know that attracting too much at the moment could result in a loss of capital market access a la Spain, owing to a further rise in sovereign yields (above 7%). This could be the straw that breaks the camel's back. So what did they do pre-emptively? They came out with a tad bit bullish GDP forecasts of 0.2% GDP growth next year! (this was on Bloomberg yesterday). Watch this space; investor attention to turn very quickly towards Lisbon this month.

Ergo

All in all, we maintain, June is an edge of the precipice month for the common currency. It is likely to be characterized by increasing implied volatility (inversely correlated to the Euro). We maintain our shorts and continue to short into a seemingly limp dead-cat-bounce (which could take the currency to 1.25-1.26 levels once again, perhaps with the catalyst being the impending rate cut this week and the temporary respite it may offer). In my previous life as an equities broker, we would defend the term DCB by reminding the investor, "even if you throw a dead-cat hard enough, it'll bounce". But I'd like to now add one caveat and allow for some granularity: if the cat is obese, its gonna come right back down very hard so you better take cover!

1.20 in the next two months is what we are eyeing.

Kind regards,

Midas

I will take 25% off at 1.26 and then let em go until I think its turning. I usually gauge the Daily RSI as my main indicator.

Target is perhaps 1.28 but the chart can change.

HERE YOU GO GUYS MY CHART ART FOR THE EURO AND AS YOU CAN SEE I TRIED MY BEST ON THIS CHART, ALREADY ENGAGED WITH 2 SHORTS, SAME STOP AND DIFFERENT TARGETS....
HOPE YOU GONNA ENJOY IT ...
CATCH YOU TOMORROW, AND SORRY ONCE MORE I CANT BE HERE FOR LONG TIME THESE DAYS I HAVE A LOT OF THINGS TO DO, SORRY AGAIN GUYS,
REMEMBER THE LEVELS GUYS....

Originally Posted by biggari

that has a $500000 price tag

This is still happening? Hahhahaha you guys are Gluttons for punishment...Gluttons I tell you!

Originally Posted by jerejim

Target is perhaps 1.28 but the chart can change.

1.28 YOUR TARGET FOR LONG POSITIONS, SORRY FOR THAT BUT I DONT THINK SO YOU BETTER WATCH THE 2600 LEVEL, THIS IF WE DID NOT TURN TO BEARISH ACCELERATION TODAY
LOOK AT MY CHART THERE 30M TIME FRAME

Originally Posted by Luxuriant

Robert, I started with a 50,000 demo account. I turned it into 75,000 in no time. So I knew I had this down. I went to a 5000 real acount. In a matter of months I had 1000 dollars left. I was trading on the 30 min, and 5min chart. I was determined to get this right. I read anything, and everything I could find about charts, and money management. I learned that you use the 30, and 5 min TF for an entry. I picked up a book on EW. I don't completely understand it. But it has helped my trading. I now look at long term trend lines. Five wave movements. Three wave corrections or 5 wave corrections. I look at it has business. So I limit my risk to keep the business open.


I got my 4 thousand dollars back. But I didn't try to do it overnight. Sometimes I walked away for 2 or 3 days to get a break. I still consider myself a rookie, with a lot to learn. I feel you can be a great trader. There is alot of info available about charts, chart patterns, indicators. You have to find your style. I prefer long term with the right entry, for others its scalping. You can do it! I get the idea from your posts that you "go big time", or all in. That may be a Las Vegas style. You won't be around to trade tomorrow. If i am wrong about the Vegas style I am sorry.

My demo account went from 50K in mid-March to a bottom of 46K in early April and is now over 85K. But the real account went from $700 down to a minimum just above $200 and then back up to $450. The main difference was, as you say, the amount of "Las Vegas style" playing that I did: with the demo I used only 1/4 or 1/3 of the margin available, while with the real money I was always betting to the maximum and getting margin-called out frequently, often of course just before it started turning my way. But I thought I was getting things down and put 7K of real money in, and have managed to wear it down to 5K, to my great exasperation particularly when I've been right about the trend: if I'd just shorted and left it alone I would be well in the black, but I keep closing it out and re-entering, or changing back and forth between large and small lot sizes, with terrible timing. The EUR/USD has been the long-term bet that I should have just left alone; I have done OK with scalping loonie and kiwi as they bounce up and down, although I have been wrong about the aussie and the pound often enough to cancel out the winnings. For a while I scalped USD/JPY because the Bank of Japan kept stepping in to hoist it up 20 pips and I could recognize reliably when they were starting in and when they were done, that was fun, but alas they haven't doing that lately.

Originally Posted by CodyB

Unconfirmed rumors of a German Newspaper story helps EUR
Story on DJ hints at compromise EFSF credit line for Madrid

Originally Posted by Mary R

I thought they already had access to the EFSF but it might not be sufficient to meet all their needs

The hangup was that Germany was insisting that the Spanish government tap the EFSF (and be on the hook for paying it back) while Spain preferred that the EFSF lend directly to the banks (and leave them out of it); the G7 was discussing whether IMF or the Fed should throw some money in (the Fed wisely wants no part of this and told them so). For a while it was looking like they would dither until one of the banks actually failed, but they seem to have stepped back from the cliff (I don't know what the arrangement was).

Originally Posted by Bignatx

Hey Robert, I always enjoy reading your fundamental analysis. I am a full tech trader but still find it very informative. I have noticed you having some trouble with your trading and such and I wanted to chime in. You seem like an very intelligent guy so your success as a trader will be based on your own strategy and how well you develop it. By reading your analysis I assume that you are a fundamental trader. Most traders that trade fundamentally are long term traders. However, I see you talking here about getting a quick 13 pips from ucad after closing your EU shorts. In my opinion unless your doing charts daily then you should stick to long term trades.

When I first started trading I did really well. Then I joined this forum and started to get overloaded with so much different info that I turned into a terrible trader. Thing is...there are a TON of great traders in this forum and I was still blowing it. The problem is, that EVERYONE is wrong sometimes and trying to pick and choose who I thought was right or wrong always swayed my decision. The reason it gave me such bias is because I didnt have my OWN system of trading developed fully. I turned into a robot for other peoples trades without even meaning too. It took me a long time to be able to read through these forums and not develop a bias due to what others were posting. Im not saying that is what you are doing, Im just saying thats how I and a lot of others have blown it. Anyway you seem like you have a good grasp on whats going on in the markets. Now just hold on to that discipline and enjoy your success down the road. Keep the great analysis coming, we all enjoy it~!

I appreciate being appreciated, thank you. I feel that I owe everyone here for their generous sharing: stryker's lines, clive's waves, Paul's clouds, and rcopadilla's multi-indicators have all helped me figure out how to read charts, even though on the big EUR/USD plays I have reached wrong conclusions so often now that I feel like I should just forbid myself to even look, and come back to it in one or two weeks and see if I have any money left.

Originally Posted by Bignatx

You lost me at "Impossible"

^This. I sometime think of this as being like quantum mechanics: it's not deterministic, all you can get is a probability of outcome A or outcome B, and what probability you derive depends on what observations you choose to make, and what pieces of very partial information you have available as a result of your observational choices.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.40%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.50%. Bonds lost 8 ticks, Crude gained 25 cents, Gold dropped $2, and the USD was higher. Support for the SPX remains at the 1261 and 1240 pivots, with resistance at the 1291 and 1303 pivots