Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

Originally Posted by Mary R

what makes you think Mr. Draghi wants to push the exchange rate up? The only information I gleaned from his speech this morning was that the Eurozone is in an economic downturn, there are problems in the credit markets, and governments are going to have to work it out for themselves.

He said his target for the exchange rate was 1.30 for the remainder of the year, and 1.30 again for 2013. He said the only path out of the economic downturn is to squeeze inflation out. And saying that the governments are going to have to work it out means: the ECB is going to be no help whatsoever.

Originally Posted by Mary R

I think the Europeans would welcome a weaker Euro

The Europeans on the street would. But they don't have a say. The people with the power to manipulate the markets are wanting the euro pushed back up.

Originally Posted by Mary R

I just don't think they want to see any cataclysmic type moves down, which could further upset the already fragile bond markets. Eur/usd is already down 25% in a year and 10% in the last couple of months, which is a big move for any currency. Im still inclined to short the rallies as the stronger trend is down

It was both a "big" move and a "small" move: large enough to hurt some big players who did not want to see sudden changes in value; but not even half as large as what would be needed to turn around the recession. This is absolutely the worst of both worlds. A further move down might be "cataclysmic" for certain bankers; but it is the persistent absence of moves down which is cataclysmic for export industries and the tourist trade. Since the bankers are in control, the economy will continue to be tanked.

Originally Posted by Franosh

Mr. Eckert, I admire your tenacity in holding on to trading based on your views on 'fundis'. But, seriously, I don't think exchange rates naturally gravitate towards, and never mind staying at, trade weighted 'fair value'.

Uh, yeah they do-- other currencies, anyhow, except those intensely manipulated cases like China. For example, during the bubble year of 2008 when the pound was riding in the 1.90's, the Economist noted that purchase-power-parity was 1.56 and that the pound would have to get back down there. And, as is usually the case when a major misalignment happens, the correction was pulled strongly to that level, and the pound has bounced around there ever since-- a few percent up, a few percent down, yeah of course; but the euro is the only currency in the world that maintains double-digit-percentage misalignments year after year, in the direction that is contrary to their own economic interests (major misalignments in favor of the economy can of course occur when manipulation does this deliberately).

Originally Posted by Mary R

The sooner I forgot all that I'd learnt in economics and finance and concentrated on charts, the better a trader I became.

My experience has been the reverse. If I'd just stuck to my guns I would have been spared all the losses that came from looking at charts and thinking I could figure out when to get in and get out.

Originally Posted by ssdbsnl

Can you show or post(snapshot) of your proven system like I'm doing ? and don't take it otherwise I am not asking to share. Just Predict something and prove your proven system by your means. I would not have stayed here more than one day if all of you are out of 1%. Thanks L..O...L

still loughing aloud... ah ah ha ha ha

sure - but my system does not predict the future but works on probabilities - and is freely available, for anyone who is bored enough, to read in a lonely corner of the 'trading strategies' section of this forum

i do not need to prove anything because i am not trying to sell anything - as you are not a trader you clearly do not understand the 1%/99% thing

i hope you saw your little project as more of a hobby than business and did not waste too much money or time on it

again good luck and happy selling

Chart attached.

Originally Posted by stryker

I believe I can fly..............

added taken out for small to decent to modest..........
These are left overs and I been out all day long..........

Gl...

Styker, I've seen you post your gains several times here, and quite frankly, Im impressed man. I am definitely not a fundie as I have a hard bent toward the techs. So with that I must say....I am grasshopper...teach me the way oh Master!

Originally Posted by Robert Eckert

He said his target for the exchange rate was 1.30 for the remainder of the year, and 1.30 again for 2013. He said the only path out of the economic downturn is to squeeze inflation out. And saying that the governments are going to have to work it out means: the ECB is going to be no help whatsoever.

The Europeans on the street would. But they don't have a say. The people with the power to manipulate the markets are wanting the euro pushed back up.

It was both a "big" move and a "small" move: large enough to hurt some big players who did not want to see sudden changes in value; but not even half as large as what would be needed to turn around the recession. This is absolutely the worst of both worlds. A further move down might be "cataclysmic" for certain bankers; but it is the persistent absence of moves down which is cataclysmic for export industries and the tourist trade. Since the bankers are in control, the economy will continue to be tanked.

Uh, yeah they do-- other currencies, anyhow, except those intensely manipulated cases like China. For example, during the bubble year of 2008 when the pound was riding in the 1.90's, the Economist noted that purchase-power-parity was 1.56 and that the pound would have to get back down there. And, as is usually the case when a major misalignment happens, the correction was pulled strongly to that level, and the pound has bounced around there ever since-- a few percent up, a few percent down, yeah of course; but the euro is the only currency in the world that maintains double-digit-percentage misalignments year after year, in the direction that is contrary to their own economic interests (major misalignments in favor of the economy can of course occur when manipulation does this deliberately).

My experience has been the reverse. If I'd just stuck to my guns I would have been spared all the losses that came from looking at charts and thinking I could figure out when to get in and get out.

I don't think I ever said anything like "the sooner I forgot all that I'd learnt in economics..."'but whatever. I know what you're saying and I agree the ecb should be more proactive and devalue the euro

Originally Posted by ssdbsnl

Can you show or post(snapshot) of your proven system like I'm doing ? and don't take it otherwise I am not asking to share. Just Predict something and prove your proven system by your means. I would not have stayed here more than one day if all of you are out of 1%. Thanks L..O...L

still loughing aloud... ah ah ha ha ha

Im waiting for your answer BIGGARI . Now its my turn to fire the questions. Let us see whether you get passing marks or not .

Originally Posted by biggari

sure - but my system does not predict the future but works on probabilities - and is freely available, for anyone who is bored enough, to read in a lonely corner of the 'trading strategies' section of this forum

i do not need to prove anything because i am not trying to sell anything - as you are not a trader you clearly do not understand the 1%/99% thing

i hope you saw your little project as more of a hobby than business and did not waste too much money or time on it

again good luck and happy selling

its not fair BIGGARI. you are just bypassing my question. Do give some solid reply. Lot of Laughs............

Originally Posted by ssdbsnl

Im waiting for your answer BIGGARI . Now its my turn to fire the questions. Let us see whether you get passing marks or not .

We each have our own systems.
Some good some bad, no one here likes a sales person.

Originally Posted by fx168

Sorry to hear about that, Alejandro. Am pretty sure you'd catch those lost pips in no time at all. I was with you on that short ride and closed my position before Draghi's speech. Also, took some small positions on eurjpy/eurgbp for that quick southbound ride. Reason for not holding the short, the FULL MOON. Good thing, I saw that post ( and from Greg's) which reminded me that I have to respect nature's cycle no matter what technicals and fundis are pointing to. Been observing this pattern. It may be a trader's myth but I am glad I finally succumb to the Lunacy influence

Please elaborate...what does the full moon have to do with trading?

Funny thing is, a buddy and I looked back a few weeks ago at all the full moons for the past year thinking it may have something to do with trading. I would love to hear many opinions should there be any!!!

Thanks

Originally Posted by CodyB

EURO-DOLLAR: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals),
$1.2650 Minor offers
$1.2620 Medium offers next target as long as close above 2520
$1.2595/600 Medium offers
$1.2575/80 Medium offers/Stops stopped the rally so far
$1.2520-50 Medium offers placed between/Stops on break
$1.25176 Int.Day high Asia
$1.2492 ***Current mkt rate 12:06GMT Wednesday
$1.2478 Pullback low off $1.25176
$1.2470 Medium demand on approach
$1.2451 Tech 61.8% $1.2410-1.2517
$1.2441 Int.Day low Asia price stalled here after ECB
$1.2440 Strong demand/IMM-system stops on break
$1.2410/00 Medium demand/$1.2410 Tuesday Jun5 low
$1.2385/80 Medium demand/Large stops/$1.2386 Jun4 low

I think we have seen the low at 2288 for awhile now

not a nibble, not even a catfish so its something else on the grill tonight

Robert will appreciate this pdf

The_Absolute_Return_Letter_0612.pdf

Originally Posted by ssdbsnl

I know salesman can sell any dummy things. But Genuine Things don't require the skills of salesman. Genuine Things get the offer and not offered. they dont need to hire salesman. Thanks.

If your system works and can produce result.. I'm talking about if your system can make only upto around 3-4% a monthly increment, I perhaps can help you get in touch with some firms who would be interested in buying it out.....
They can even help develop it further base on your description..
Make sure you know system capabilities since these are some really serious people in this business.....
I'm assuming you have it back tested and have current record available...

GL...

On the daily chart we see that EUR/USD moved up into the price zone of the prior consolidation and the 20 SMA, which both should act as resistance. A bit higher at 1.2588 (not shown) also stands the weekly low from August 2010, which got respected (closed at) two weeks ago and broken last week.



On the 1 hour chart we see that EUR/USD formed a typical 3 wave consolidation (CDE) just before today's breakout. Yesterday, market found support at the apex of the red triangle (C) and today price found resistance at the daily R1 (D) and support at the weekly pivot point (E) where the consolidation pattern terminated and price started to move up to break the consolidation high at 1.2543 (B).
EUR/USD moved initially up to the 61.80 % fib extension C-D at E where market temporarily paused before price resumes it's up trend to the 100 % fib extension (F). Market is currently trading at daily resistance and the 61.80 % fib extension from A-B at C and the 100 % fib extension from C-D at E (F).



On the 5 min chart we see that the recent 100 % fib extension from 1-2 at 3 also stands at the current resistance zone. We also see that market paused as it reached the 61.80 % fib extension (C-D at E) (2). Later on market formed a bull flag before price moved up to the confluence resistance zone, where price started to fall back after the creation of the bearish candle (Doji)


Chart Analysis Forex (EUR/USD)

Originally Posted by NHAppraiser

We each have our own systems.
Some good some bad, no one here likes a sales person.

This is not the answer... Anyway this is a forum where we all supposed to help each other. You just read previous posts of biggari, commenting directly or indirectly . I never offered to sell the system but these guys are compelling me to admit the same. So I decided it the way they want...

Originally Posted by NHAppraiser

We each have our own systems.
Some good some bad, no one here likes a sales person.

Let Biggari speak something. Please...

Originally Posted by CaZeek

I say Draghi should cut rates to weaken the currency, and any additional direct effects of the rate cut on yields is a bonus.

Lots of people are saying Draghi *should* weaken the currency. He has made it plain he intends to do the opposite.

Originally Posted by Franosh

Why not. Most things are worth only as much as the next customer is willing to pay for it. If at $10 a loaf demand surges to the extend that the bakery needs to put in more hours, staff etc. putting up price is a natural step.

But why would demand surge for a $10 loaf, when other brands are selling below $5, for the same quality, same everything except the label? Faddish buying for the ----- label can of course happen sometimes, but I would have thought that people whose business is money would be less subject to that kind of silliness.

A more extreme example: USD/JPY has a structural bearish bias (Japan keeps selling more than it imports). When the yen was restabilized after WWII, the exchange rate was 500. It has shed almost a whole zero since then. The Bank of Japan from time to time intervenes to slow the long-term drop-- but is USD/JPY ever going back to 500? Is there anybody who would be bullish on USD/JPY above 100 nowadays?

Originally Posted by asylum

well speculators for one are buying, it would be to easy if everyone thought the way you do, no disrespect, just follow the price, price made a huge piercing candle on the daily indicating a reversal, if you want to trade against it short term you'll more than likely get your fingers burned.

Most speculators who are buying today will be closing out tomorrow; that is why SSI is a contrarian indicator. I have to stop looking at the short term trends altogether and aim for a couple weeks down the line. The question is whether there are enough large purchasers who are buying to hold long-term, and keep buying in, enough to counter the structural bearish bias (among those who are buying or selling euros for business reasons, of course there are going to continue to be more non-Europeans selling goods in Europe and European tourists taking trips to the US than the reverse, as long as Europe is systematically overpriced). A massive (~95B) asset transfer from European to Asian banks from ~3/15 to ~5/1 propped up the euro during that period; is the banking establishment setting another such transfer in motion? Franosh linked below to a Financial Times article suggesting that China still has appetite for such acquisitions.

EDIT:

Originally Posted by Mary R

I don't think I ever said anything like "the sooner I forgot all that I'd learnt in economics..."'but whatever. I know what you're saying and I agree the ecb should be more proactive and devalue the euro

Pardon-- that was another section from Franosh, but I messed up on cut-and-pasting the quote tags.