Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

Originally Posted by asylum

Well thank you very much for the help, so if i understand correctly you're basically killing two birds with one stone. If you have a short position that is well up you'll scalp on the long side for extra pips while still maintaining that short position. very clever, and how effective is it ? is it something you use a lot or just occasionally , sorry for all the questions. thanks once again.

Not a lot.. well lately yes..... else past few months on them dead ranges u be lucky to bank anything.. This works well on bigger moves.. Naturally only if the pair moves big is when u can do that.. I would be more likely to hit scalp counter trade to the main trade if I have a nice position riding it.. It's all about the cushion............ ISn't it..........

GL..

Populist sentiment against the austerity-minded German chancellor is bubbling up in Spain, the latest euro-zone economy in the market's cross hairs. The online service keeps track of terms "trending" among users. At the moment, Twitter says "Stop Merkel" is the No. 2 phrase used by Web site's 140-character-a-post users in Spain. Also among the Top 10 in Spain: "Fitch." The ratings firm on Thursday slashed Spain's debt rating by three notches. Worldwide, Twitter users aren't quite so economically minded. Merkel doesn't show up among the service's most-used phrases, but "Germany's Next Top Model" does

Originally Posted by CodyB

S&P struggling to break back above 1325.40 (last 1322.0)  EUR/USD stalls 1.2607
Traders eyeing 2.45PM for signs of margin call activity for stock traders

I think back in March 7th or so I stated SNP to top off around 1424 and corrective drop has a tgt of 1265....
Also stated earlier last week 1265 if holds out should rebound back to 1340ish..
IF this rebound is corrective in nature, we should be getting done soon, else the drop to 1265 was corrective....

GL..

Originally Posted by CodyB

Populist sentiment against the austerity-minded German chancellor is bubbling up in Spain, the latest euro-zone economy in the market's cross hairs. The online service keeps track of terms "trending" among users. At the moment, Twitter says "Stop Merkel" is the No. 2 phrase used by Web site's 140-character-a-post users in Spain. Also among the Top 10 in Spain: "Fitch." The ratings firm on Thursday slashed Spain's debt rating by three notches. Worldwide, Twitter users aren't quite so economically minded. Merkel doesn't show up among the service's most-used phrases, but "Germany's Next Top Model" does

Are you sure by "Germany's Next Top Model" they aren't referring to Merkel?

Originally Posted by CodyB

EUR/USD finished Thursday 30 pips higher at 1.2565
A close on Friday evening above 1.2420 would end a run of 5
consecutive weeks of falls, over which EUR/USD dropped 8.25 cents

It was the 4th rally seen in the past 5 days, over which EUR/USD has
added a total of 2.00 cents (1.6%)

Of the 20 times since January 2011 when - as this week - EUR/USD
has posted net gains of any size on both a Wednesday and Thursday,
only one went on to close the Friday that followed with a net gain of
more than 65 pips

cody may you tell me which are your criteria when you said that thursday session finished at 1.2565 ?
thank you

On the weekly chart we observe that market moved up to the January 2012 low (orange line).

On the daily chart we see that EUR/USD respected (closed at) the 20 SMA yesterday and today price moved above the 20 SMA up to the January's low at 1.2624 (orange line) and the 61.80 % fib retracement at 1.2620. This resistance zone held the market and price fell back from this level into the price range of yesterday's daily candle. EUR/USD already failed to recapture the low from January 2012 on May 28th (recent high from May 28th coinsides with January's low).



On the hourly chart (above) we see that market started today's upmove from the recent swing high at 1.2543 (blue line-C). After the backtest of this level (resistance became support-C) EUR/USD moved above the weekly R1 but market found resistance at the orange line (low from January 2012), daily R1 and the 61.80 % fib retracement (A-B at C)
Overall, market could not overcome this resistance zone at about 1.2624 and in the following price sharply fell back from resistance at 4 p.m. before price found solid support at at the 10 SMA on the 4 hour chart at 1.2546 (4 p.m. candle-not shown) closely to the recent swing high (blue line-support-D) at 1.2543.



On the 5 min chart we see that EUR/USD formed a typical 3 wave consolidation pattern at the price level of the weekly R1 (between 1-2 p.m.) before market resumed it's uptrend terminating at the resistance zone. Market reversed sharply and took out the recent striking low at 1.2562.
The recent consolidation from the beginning of today's European session (8 a.m. - 10 a.m.-not shown) provided some support and led to a pause of the sudden price drop before market headed up again at 4:35 p.m. after price reached the 10 SMA on the 4 hour chart (not shown). EUR/USD formed a kind of inverted Head & Shoulder (3,4,5), which got triggered and market moved up to the consolidation pattern at today's high (6).

Chart Analysis Forex (EUR/USD)

Hello
My system is about to make a short signal if the candle close at least at this level.

Fellow Traders,

A tumultuous past few days for Euro shorts, but we maintain that the environment couldn't be better to short into this dead-cat bounce.

First drop - 1.2327
The EUR/USD has dropped, on average, by 293 pips each time it has breached the 8-Hour RSI 50 level from below. These drops have historically occurred over a period of 7 business days. This phenomenon has occurred 5 times since Jan 2012. We are in the 6th instance. Both hopefuls; a) the ECB's opportunity to announce another LTRO, continue SMPs and/or lower rates and b) Bernanke's announcement of another round of TWIST and/or QE has failed to extend the Euro's dead-cat bounce. Our forecasts indicate that in the initial drop, the Euro could head towards 1.2327.

This could be triggered by mediocre, lack of or outright failure in the following events in June:

10th - French legislative election 1st round (risk that socialist party fails to secure a total majority and has to depend on radical left)
12th - Greek bills auction (risk of low uptake or orbital yields)
13th - New timeline on ratification of ESM and Fiscal Compact in Germany (delay risk). Italy bills auction (risk of low uptake or orbital yields)
14th- Italy bond auction (risk of low uptake or orbital yields). French legislative election 2nd round (same risk as 1st round)
17th - 2nd attempt at Greek elections (40% probability of anti-bailout party, 40% of pro-bailout, 20% of dangerous stale mate according to Credit Suisse)
18th - G20 leaders summit (probably a non event)
21st - Spain bond auction (risk of low uptake or orbital yields).
26nd - Spain and Italy bond auction (risk of low uptake or orbital yields).
27th - Italy bond auction (risk of low uptake or orbital yields).
28th - More Italian bond auctions (risk of low uptake or orbital yields) + European council meeting (risk: growth compact to complement fiscal compact doesn't materialize here)


Second drop - below 1.20

Our sources in Greece indicate that Greece is most-likely to leave the Eurozone in the next few months. Trust the people there, not detached news agents writing for newspapers over here. This exit is, almost overnight, likely to trigger contagion in Eurozone periphery yields with Spain and Portugal (and potentially Italy) being touted as the next exit (Spexit?) candidates. Following this, under-subscribed bond auctions at high yields in the periphery will trigger further tightening of credit conditions resulting in a significant flight towards non-Euro denominated assets. This will force the Euro into the teens. At this point, there might be a corrective bounce as the Fed conducts another round of QE (probably waiting until after the U.S election) and the ECB prints more money (potentially the Fed opens up dollar swap lines for the ECB to tap). However, by this time, the Eurozone project on the whole would have already suffered a massive casualty (i.e the Grexit). The price to pay? A new normal for the Euro.

The new normal for the EUR/USD towards Q3 of this year: 1.15-1.20 (not 1.25-1.35).

Key risk to our hypothesis: All toys are thrown out of the pram: The Fed announces QE3 at an emergency meeting next month and simultaneously, the ECB starts to conduct LTRO 3/SMP 2 and lowers the interest rate - all of this following a failed Greek election. This results in a sharp spike in the Euro up to c. 1.30-1.35.

We continue to short into strength,
Midas

guys i dont know what to say but am really busy these days..
but i just came to say that look at the 4h chart it is interesting, price just reached the max point of retrace. further move may change my mind to bullish move but as long as the price well capped under the 2600 roughly i want to see a bulk of sell orders here, but the break my trigger the pac man to eat some stops there so in either way wait for break or hold, for me am a bear fan,
HINT: ANY BREAK BELOW 2550 TRIGGER A POTENTIAL SOUTH MOVE ...

I find it interesting how Nzd/Usd is falling easier.
That means there is still some euro bulls tryin to hold the short term uptrend..
To hell with them! we want the drop

I think that is what is gonna happen now

Originally Posted by Dimake

cody may you tell me which are your criteria when you said that thursday session finished at 1.2565 ?
thank you

that would be the Queens time in the UK

Bernanke's testimony before Congress on the economic outlook delivered what was expected. Bernanke did not give any remarks on the prospects for monetary policy -- although this was seen as somewhat of a disappointment, Bernanke almost never delivers forward-looking comments regarding monetary policy at the Joint Economic Committee, and so we
would not see the lack of any such remarks as signalling anything about the Fed's propensity for action at the next FOMC meeting. In Q&A, Bernanke took a consensus-building tone regarding upcoming monetary policy decisions, offering that nothing has been decided regarding future actions. Even so, his description of the outlook -- coming on the heels of
Yellen's hints of possible future action -- leaves the door wide open for the Fed to engage in further accommodative measures at the upcoming FOMC meeting

Originally Posted by EuroTraderApp

Are you sure by "Germany's Next Top Model" they aren't referring to Merkel?

LMAO, thats a good one

Touché

CME 3-month Eurodollars futures open interest fell 1.5 percent in May. Commercial participants, who accounted for 60.0 percent of open interest, held net long positions; they increased their long positions by 1.9 percent and decreased their short positions by 7.4 percent. Non-commercial participants, who accounted for 29.9 percent of open interest, held net short positions. They decreased their long positions by 4.7 percent and increased their short positions by 9.2 percent. Non-reportable participants, who accounted for 10.1 percent of total open interest, held net short positions; they decreased their long positions by 12.9 percent and increased their short positions by 3.1 percent.
CME Euro-FX futures open interest increased 37.2 percent in May. Commercial participants, who accounted for 49.4 percent of open interest, held net long positions; they increased their long positions by 45.1 percent and increased their short positions by 1.9 percent. Non-commercial participants, who accounted for 36.7 percent of open interest, held net short positions. They increased their long positions by 14.1 percent and increased their short positions by 63.1 percent. Non-reportable participants, who accounted for 13.9 percent of total open interest, held net short positions; they increased their long positions by 9.0 percent and increased their short positions by 15.6 percent.
CBOT 10-year Treasury Notes futures open interest increased 18.0 percent in May. Commercial participants, who accounted for 67.8 percent of open interest, held net long positions; they increased their long positions by 13.9 percent and increased their short positions by 29.4 percent. Non-commercial participants, who accounted for 16.8 percent of open interest, held net short positions. They increased their long positions by 41.9 percent and increased their short positions by 4.8 percent. Non-reportable participants, who accounted for 15.4 percent of total open interest, held net short positions; they increased their long positions by 18.0 percent and decreased their short positions by 3.2 percent.
CME S&P 500 futures open interest increased 13.3 percent in May. Commercial participants, who accounted for 63.4 percent of open interest, held net long positions; they increased their long positions by 15.4 percent and increased their short positions by 3.1 percent. Non-commercial participants, who accounted for 6.5 percent of open interest, held net long positions. They increased their long positions by 45.7 percent and increased their short positions by 44.3 percent. Non-reportable participants, who accounted for 30.1 percent of total open interest, held net short positions; they increased their long positions by 1.8 percent and increased their short positions by 29.5 percent.
Futures and Options Combined Markets:
CME 3-month Eurodollars combined open interest increased 1.0 percent in May. Commercial participants, who accounted for 49.9 percent of open interest, held net long positions; their long exposure was increased by 1.9 percent and their short exposure was decreased by 4.9 percent. Non-commercial participants, who accounted for 43.3 percent of open interest, held net short positions. Their long exposure was increased by 2.0 percent and their short exposure was increased by 7.8 percent. Non-reportable participants, who accounted for 6.8 percent of total open interest, held net short positions; their long exposure was decreased by 12.3 percent and their short exposure was increased by 3.8 percent.
CME Euro-FX combined open interest increased 46.3 percent in May. Commercial participants, who accounted for 45.0 percent of open interest, held net long positions; their long exposure was increased by 46.8 percent and their short exposure was increased by 20.3 percent. Non-commercial participants, who accounted for 41.8 percent of open interest, held net short positions. Their long exposure was increased by 53.6 percent and their short exposure was increased by 69.2 percent. Non-reportable participants, who accounted for 13.2 percent of total open interest, held net short positions; their long exposure was increased by 27.9 percent and their short exposure was increased by 18.4 percent.
CBOT 10-year Treasury Notes combined open interest increased 10.9 percent in May. Commercial participants, who accounted for 65.2 percent of open interest, held net long positions; their long exposure was increased by 9.5 percent and their short exposure was increased by 21.2 percent. Non-commercial participants, who accounted for 20.6 percent of open interest, held net short positions. Their long exposure was increased by 12.4 percent and their short exposure was decreased by 2.8 percent. Non-reportable participants, who accounted for 14.3 percent of total open interest, held net short positions; their long exposure was increased by 15.4 percent and their short exposure was decreased by 4.7 percent.
CME S&P 500 combined open interest increased 16.7 percent in May. Commercial participants, who accounted for 63.2 percent of open interest, held net long positions; their long exposure was increased by 18.2 percent and their short exposure was increased by 9.5 percent. Non-commercial participants, who accounted for 11.7 percent of open interest, held net long positions. Their long exposure was increased by 31.9 percent and their short exposure was increased by 28.0 percent. Non-reportable participants, who accounted for 25.1 percent of total open interest, held net short positions; their long exposure was increased by 5.7 percent and their short exposure was increased by 30.0 percent.