Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

Please...post your trades. Uncertainly is the worst situation.
My bet is EUR/USD should get to 1.0775 so A (1.6038-1.1876) = C (1.4940-present)
Regards from Spain. Like your comments, help me to trade with more sense.

Quote: IMF ‏@IMFNews
IMF Sees China Growth Around 8% In 2012

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Awesome trades Stryker! You certainly live up to your name. The last up moves after last Friday's NFP appear to be just 3 wave a-b-c corrections/counter-trends against the dominant downtrend. The short "commercial break" has ended and the main event "Bears on Parade" has resumed.

thnx............ got me lucky buying on NFP day and start selling out later yesterday and today.. mainly today..
Let's see how this goes.. my short gold were kicked out for +1 pips and resold on that 1583 hold lower at 1581.XX.. but added 1576 as well.
GU 5507 breaks now is a bearflag break out for a 5530 tgt.. did it on GU section..
EURO tested 2437 a break under 2408 and 2377 what I'm eying..

Let's drop gold to 1551 min if not 1533....

GL..

Originally Posted by Alejandro Zambrano

Hello guys,

Yes - you want to see the moving average moving in line with the overall trend. Below we can see that until this morning the trend was very bearish but it looks like some traders are now giving up so the MA moves sideways.

When we move higher (if we move higher) we will see price move faster than the MA - the MA will be lagging but at one point we will see that the MA is trading close to price again and trade sideways as it is right now - if this happens at a good level to go short (fibo level or Pivot point level) Then we can go short when we see a breakdown - a genuine breakdown will be followed by the MA starting to point lower - We can enter the market with a stop just above the new swing high.

I hope this makes sense

EUR/USD 5 min

Do you use MVA 20 on all TF's or just 5min Sir?

Hello Traders,

Looks like ta "Risk off Day", so look to possibly short risk currencies on bounces higher or breaks lower or look to buy dollar pairs on pullbacks or breakouts to new highs.

Have a great trading day!

Regards,

Greg McLeod
DailyFX Forum Moderator/Trader

SSI Details:
EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at 1.07 as nearly 52% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.13 as 53% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 9.2% higher than yesterday and 2.6% stronger since last week. Short positions are 10.3% lower than yesterday and 14.6% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.2% weaker than yesterday and 7.7% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD losses.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at 2.19 as nearly 69% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.71 as 63% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 10.2% higher than yesterday and 5.5% stronger since last week. Short positions are 13.7% lower than yesterday and 17.7% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.4% stronger than yesterday and 14.2% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD losses.

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at 2.67 as nearly 73% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.52 as 72% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 0.8% higher than yesterday and 1.0% weaker since last week. Short positions are 5.1% lower than yesterday and 17.7% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.9% weaker than yesterday and 0.2% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY losses.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 5.22 as nearly 84% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 4.09 as 80% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 7.2% higher than yesterday and 21.0% weaker since last week. Short positions are 16.1% lower than yesterday and 21.4% stronger since last week. Open interest is 2.6% stronger than yesterday and 13.2% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at -1.58 as nearly 61% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.21 as 55% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 9.3% lower than yesterday and 3.4% stronger since last week. Short positions are 18.9% higher than yesterday and 8.1% stronger since last week. Open interest is 6.1% stronger than yesterday and 14.9% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF gains.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at -1.83 as nearly 65% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.40 as 58% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 15.4% lower than yesterday and 7.2% stronger since last week. Short positions are 10.9% higher than yesterday and 5.2% weaker since last week. Open interest is 0.1% weaker than yesterday and 10.5% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD gains.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at 2.43 as nearly 71% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.83 as 65% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 6.8% higher than yesterday and 3.8% weaker since last week. Short positions are 19.8% lower than yesterday and 19.8% stronger since last week. Open interest is 2.6% weaker than yesterday and 14.2% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD losses.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at 3.22 as nearly 76% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.52 as 72% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 5.3% higher than yesterday and 11.7% weaker since last week. Short positions are 17.8% lower than yesterday and 9.9% weaker since last week. Open interest is 1.2% weaker than yesterday and 10.0% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD losses.

Originally Posted by Alejandro Zambrano

Charts from today's Bulls vs. Bears webinar

Recorded version
Bulls vs Bears - The spread Betting Morning Update June 8 - 2012 | DailyFX: Bulls vs Bears on Blip
QA Session
QA Bulls vs bears spread betting market update June 8 2012on DailyFX Live Trading Room - live streaming video powered by Livestream

Do you think correction is still intact???

Downside targets

Hello friends,
I very hope some of newbies took my yesterdays advice to short and they are rich today!
U dont need to pay for the super special ultra new best trading system tO Predict whats the most probable.. just use good old indicators as rsi, stoch, mas etc.. when u find the right settings for your timefrime, u are getting the holy grail of technical analysis.. but as we know.. there is not just only technicals in the play the very magic is in the setting and in your mind.Have a beautiful weekend friends.
Allan

Originally Posted by Bal

Do you think correction is still intact???

Well we are slowly drifting lower but I don't want to be a seller right now unless you are looking for tiny moves - We wait for a break of 1.2400/10 (which will probably not happen today) or sell on a correction.

There are of course some that will try to buy now and have stop losses under 1.24 but I would not trade this move as this would be against the overall trend.

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Hello Traders,

EURUSD stands at 1.07 as nearly 52% of traders are long.
GBPUSD The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at 2.19

Its interesting to see the EUR/USD ratio at 1.07 - this tells us that traders don't have a strong bias - When the ratio is higher that 1.5 then the SSI will produce the best results - look like a hint to be careful.

Originally Posted by Luxuriant

Do you use MVA 20 on all TF's or just 5min Sir?

Just on the 5 min as a filter - for example I know that the MA must go flat before we see a reversal - This helps me to slow down - previously I could trade on the first sign of a trend reversal in the 5 min - because this the 5 min if a bit random I could get chopped up

I would recommend using this system if using my overall bias
http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/educati..._in_Forex.html

The bounce from the lows near the lower BB20 had enough strength to tag the BB20 midline resistance but not enough to go thru resulting in the current reversal back to the trend.

The BB20 midline often acts as resistance in downtrends across multiple timeframes.
The lower BB20 is next logical target.

Originally Posted by Alejandro Zambrano

Well we are slowly drifting lower but I don't want to be a seller right now unless you are looking for tiny moves - We wait for a break of 1.2400/10 (which will probably not happen today) or sell on a correction.

There are of course some that will try to buy now and have stop losses under 1.24 but I would not trade this move as this would be against the overall trend.

I am holding a short from 12502 with a target of 12405. Shall I close now or?

There has been a marked tendency for 5 (more or less) weekly bearish bars to print after the initial hit on the lower BB20. Next week is week 5 for the current situation.

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

That is a great question! I went ahead and created a poll.

But where are the options for "Living the Nightmare" or "Would stick to my Day Job if I had one"?