Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

buy the rumour sell the news, until then patience!

Originally Posted by RocketMaker1000

The Euro politicians seem to be hinting at Euro Bonds and the Germans want spending controls before hand. I read that most Greeks don't want to lose the Euro so I doubt they are going to drop out of the system.

Ideas?

Originally Posted by Bignatx

Here we go! GJ is trying to break pattern on the 4hour...if it does look for a strong move up across the board.

Be aware of the overthrow, dont forget to make sure it closes outside.

In the Asian session, the Euro found support at the weekly S1 and market formed a kind of doji/ pin bar (reversal candle) on the hourly chart (Yesterday's low-blue line). From there, the Euro moved up to the 20 SMA (hourly) where the euro found some resistance (5 a.m.) (1) before market moved above the 20 SMA up to the daily pivot point at 1.2522 (2). The Euro reversed at the daily pivot point and market targeted the recent hourly low at 7 a.m. to clear some stops (3) (no breakout confirmation of the hourly low on 5 min chart) before the euro moved up again and penetrated the daily pivot point (4). However, we see on the 5 min chart (B) that market never confirmed a break of the daily pivot point (no close above the breakout candle). Market rolled over at the daily pivot point and targeted yesterday's daily low. Yesterday's bearish daily candle made a retest of this low very likely (bearish sentiment) and many stop and limit orders are expected to be below yesterday's low. Market cleared these orders and bounced back and closed again at/above the weekly S1 on the hourly chart (first breakout is often a false breakout). On the 5 min chart (below) we also see that the breach of the wekly S1 and yesterday's low did not get confirmed. The 5 min candle at 3:05 p.m. closed at the weekly S1 (respected it) and the following breakout candle penetrated this support level, however, there was no succeeeding candle which closed below the range of the breakout candle. Moreover, market bounced back at the 100 % fib extension from C-D at E.
Today's price action in the European session might be seen as a Head & Shoulder (ABC) with the green line as its neckline (5 min chart). Market formed a nice 3 wave consolidation pattern at the neckline (visible on the 1 min chart-bear flag) just prior to the breakout (D)



On the 5 min chart we see that the Euro bounced back after the unconfimed breach of the weekly S1 and yesterday's low (blue line) (F), moved up to the 20 SMA (3:45 p.m.) where market consolidated before the Euro went up further and formed a bullish consolidation (bull flag). The green neckline seemed to provide some resistance. The bull flag got triggered, supported by the rising 20 SMA on the 5 min chart and market moved up again.

Chart Analysis Forex (EUR/USD)

EURO ::
Considering we don't get a newer high then euro requires a clean break higher to 2441-43 in ASIA to move higher to challenge 2570..
Top of the range on 2 hrs heads to 2675-80 and possible only once euro can start holding higher to 2580-85.....

On a side note and purely based on the fact that we to see a test of 2540-42 and as such 2478-80 looks like a decent spot to hit longs. this would be even ideal if prior to close we don't break the green TL and slide lower for getting longs in from around 2478 for a small play-out to 2540ish test..

USD ::

USD charts are getting choppier on the smaller time frame; hence 4 hrs shows a better picture here..
Actual supp where the correction should end comes to 10108-12 for Wednesday.
Currently USD can find supp around 10160 based on hrly...

GL...

Originally Posted by stryker

EURO ::
Considering we don't get a newer high then euro requires a clean break higher to 2441-43 in ASIA to move higher to challenge 2570..
Top of the range on 2 hrs heads to 2675-80 and possible only once euro can start holding higher to 2580-85.....

On a side note and purely based on the fact that we to see a test of 2540-42 and as such 2478-80 looks like a decent spot to hit longs. this would be even ideal if prior to close we don't break the green TL and slide lower for getting longs in from around 2478 for a small play-out to 2540ish test..

USD ::

USD charts are getting choppier on the smaller time frame; hence 4 hrs shows a better picture here..
Actual supp where the correction should end comes to 10108-12 for Wednesday.
Currently USD can find supp around 10160 based on hrly...

GL...

gold looks like its making for a test higher as well to me after breaking up on daily after. eurusd rise led by usd weakness as data is turning over right now. would think 1660 before some consolidation

HELLO GUYS HOW ARE YOU ALL!! HOPE YOU ARE MAKING SOME PIPS, ANYWAYS HERE IS MY 4H CHART AND AS YOU CAN SEE I MADE A BLUE(SUPPORT), RED(RESISTANT) AND PURPLE( POTENTIAL TARGETS) THESE LEVELS ARE CRITICAL IF WE BREAK BLUE OR RED WE MAY ACCELERATE TO NEXT PURPLE, BUT THE SCENARIO IS BULLISH SO AM LONG TO GET THAT BREAK ABOVE 2600 LEVEL AS THE MARKET IS TRENDING IN A HIGHER LOW UP TREND SENTIMENT....
LETS SEE WAT HAPPEN THERE.
CATCH YOU GUYS LATER ...

Originally Posted by jamilgaruty

HELLO GUYS HOW ARE YOU ALL!! HOPE YOU ARE MAKING SOME PIPS, ANYWAYS HERE IS MY 4H CHART AND AS YOU CAN SEE I MADE A BLUE(SUPPORT), RED(RESISTANT) AND PURPLE( POTENTIAL TARGETS) THESE LEVELS ARE CRITICAL IF WE BREAK BLUE OR RED WE MAY ACCELERATE TO NEXT PURPLE, BUT THE SCENARIO IS BULLISH SO AM LONG TO GET THAT BREAK ABOVE 2600 LEVEL AS THE MARKET IS TRENDING IN A LOWER HIGH UP TREND SENTIMENT....
LETS SEE WAT HAPPEN THERE.
CATCH YOU GUYS LATER ...

I agree im looking for 1.2640 area

Originally Posted by Bignatx

I agree im looking for 1.2640 area

THEN LETS SEE WHATS GOING ON...

Originally Posted by CodyB

A sharp rise in Spanish government bond yields to their highest levels since the inception of the euro is fanning speculation that the country might need a bailout of its own, just days after Spain sought a support package for its beleaguered banking system.

Part of the problem is that the Germans keep insisting the Spanish government, not just the banks, must be on the hook for repaying the bailout loans, and will that debt be first in line ahead of all existing bonds? Spanish yields went past 6.8 approaching 6.9, and 7.0 has always been a psychological panic-trigger.

Originally Posted by CodyB

...This is the known worry list:

Thanks for that comprehensive calendar, which I cut-and-pasted for reference.

Originally Posted by bucket_shop

(Long term) trade consideration for an early entry EUR/USD Long

Chart pattern on the monthly chart: Three River Bottom

Trade length: 2 to 5 years

Target: 1.80

Invalidation 1.18

Attachment 132836

This looks a lot like my "Black Line of Death" chart which I've posted a couple times here:

except that the "Black Line" (should really be sloping down a little, but my sloppiness in drawing it doesn't matter much as it is a sloppy calculation in the first place) was not derived from charts but by estimating the maximum overvaluation for the euro which still allows the European continent-wide economy to grow sustainably. The persistent habit of the euro rebounding up whenever it threatens to get down to the "Life" zone is remarkable; it remains my opinion that if it does not get to Life this summer the Eurozone must begin breaking up this year. So, your long-term might be good IF you can guarantee that holding long-euros now will end up with you holding long-deutschmarks, which might indeed be trading at 1.80 in a few years.

Which raises a question no-one really seemed to know the answer to before: what happens to forex contracts when a currency union breaks up? I suggested that all trading would have to be suspended while it was sorted out who owned what, but I was told that this has become impracticable. Would Spyros (a Greek poster from here whom I assume is presently in Greece) get his euro accounts turned into "Greek euros" because of his citizenship, while people from elsewhere get to keep all their euro accounts as "good euros"? Or would everybody who is not a citizen of any EU country get, say, 3 percent "Greek euros" and 97% "good euros"?

Originally Posted by Robert Eckert

Part of the problem is that the Germans keep insisting the Spanish government, not just the banks, must be on the hook for repaying the bailout loans, and will that debt be first in line ahead of all existing bonds? Spanish yields went past 6.8 approaching 6.9, and 7.0 has always been a psychological panic-trigger.

Thanks for that comprehensive calendar, which I cut-and-pasted for reference.

This looks a lot like my "Black Line of Death" chart which I've posted a couple times here:

except that the "Black Line" (should really be sloping down a little, but my sloppiness in drawing it doesn't matter much as it is a sloppy calculation in the first place) was not derived from charts but by estimating the maximum overvaluation for the euro which still allows the European continent-wide economy to grow sustainably. The persistent habit of the euro rebounding up whenever it threatens to get down to the "Life" zone is remarkable; it remains my opinion that if it does not get to Life this summer the Eurozone must begin breaking up this year. So, your long-term might be good IF you can guarantee that holding long-euros now will end up with you holding long-deutschmarks, which might indeed be trading at 1.80 in a few years.

Which raises a question no-one really seemed to know the answer to before: what happens to forex contracts when a currency union breaks up? I suggested that all trading would have to be suspended while it was sorted out who owned what, but I was told that this has become impracticable. Would Spyros (a Greek poster from here whom I assume is presently in Greece) get his euro accounts turned into "Greek euros" because of his citizenship, while people from elsewhere get to keep all their euro accounts as "good euros"? Or would everybody who is not a citizen of any EU country get, say, 3 percent "Greek euros" and 97% "good euros"?

I dont have the answers you seek sir, no idea what would happen. As mentioned before the real acid test will be the bond auctions, thats why the calendar of upcoming events on these. We certainly live in interesting times and in the FX market we have a front row seat to much of the history that will be made, just like a concert, front row is the place to be.. no major new bias to taint the picture, we see it live everyday in our charts. AND we can profit from it!!
my LT outlook remains the same

Originally Posted by MysticMegatron

gold looks like its making for a test higher as well to me after breaking up on daily after. eurusd rise led by usd weakness as data is turning over right now. would think 1660 before some consolidation

Did a layout on GOLD section yesterday.. esp the 4 hrs still valid.. a move higher to 1620 today surely puts gold on bullish stance.. and my channel tgt is around to 1665 as well.........

GL..

Originally Posted by CodyB

I dont have the answers you seek sir, no idea what would happen. As mentioned before the real acid test will be the bond auctions, thats why the calendar of upcoming events on these. We certainly live in interesting times and in the FX market we have a front row seat to much of the history that will be made, just like a concert, front row is the place to be.. no major new bias to taint the picture, we see it live everyday in our charts. AND we can profit from it!!
my LT outlook remains the same

Each bond auction needs to be watched carefully in this jumpy market. For the week I expect a tight range as no-one wants to commit before the Greek elections: last polls (a week and a half old, per Greek law) showed New Dems with a slight lead; the slow-motion collapse of the government (there is a run on pharmacies lately as many are no longer willing to fill prescriptions covered by the national health insurer, which hasn't been paying up; electrical utilities are facing cash crunches that may lead to rolling blackouts) might swing the vote in the protest direction instead, however. A jump up on New Dem victory or jump down on Syriza victory is expected, but few want to bet much on which way it will go. There are worse possible outcomes: if the margin is very small (remember that 50 seats ride on exactly how finishes 1st), the recounts will make Florida 2000 look calm and whichever side loses will continue to believe the outcome was rigged; New Dems could do better but Pasok worse enough that they still don't have a majority, and everybody-else-except-the-Nazis won't either, just like last time, and then what, a third election?

I would add to your calendar: Monday and Tuesday another round of talks with the Iranians (this one in Moscow). These have been getting little coverage because the first few rounds were leak-free (a good sign); last week there was public sniping, but this week we are back to content-free blandness (Chinese Foreign Ministry statement "All parties ought to be attentive to each other's concerns and seek a resolution through dialogue"). War jitters when an Israeli strike looked more likely drove a spike in Oil, which has subsided since the talks; if the Iranians want to drag this out as painfully as possible (not really in their interests, but it seems to be their nature) there may be renewed Oil spikes when it looks like talks could utterly break down (the deterioration in Syria is a complicating factor). USD/CAD is the most sensitive to this among the majors (high Oil is good for the loonie) but EUR/USD is also somewhat influenced (Europe's oil dependency is worse than America's).

Originally Posted by stryker

EURO ::
Considering we don't get a newer high then euro requires a clean break higher to 2441-43 in ASIA to move higher to challenge 2570..
Top of the range on 2 hrs heads to 2675-80 and possible only once euro can start holding higher to 2580-85.....

On a side note and purely based on the fact that we to see a test of 2540-42 and as such 2478-80 looks like a decent spot to hit longs. this would be even ideal if prior to close we don't break the green TL and slide lower for getting longs in from around 2478 for a small play-out to 2540ish test..

USD ::

USD charts are getting choppier on the smaller time frame; hence 4 hrs shows a better picture here..
Actual supp where the correction should end comes to 10108-12 for Wednesday.
Currently USD can find supp around 10160 based on hrly...

GL...

Got me longs off the desired lvl and now turning to this 2 hrs chart which I preferred for 3 step play-out.
Initial tgt 2510-15 and if can attain a break higher have a chance for a 2548-51 play.. A clean break higher and mid 2580ish.. Above to it we have a bull drive..
2550 is critical lvl as it seems for today and can spot an early warning sign on failure.. Offcourse first thing first we need to break the high to get to it..
and offcourse some down movement on USD would be a comfort spot to sit on the longs for some decent gains...
GL...

need to break 1.2525 to head up to 1.26. got other resis at 1.2544 & 1.2577. once we break weekly pivot, expecting some kind of small pullback before a move higher. got support @ 1.2490, stay above and pressure is to the up side still.

EUR/USD Price has been range trading for the last 24 hrs but price now looks poised to leave this range and trade to 1.2675. Price remains bullish as long as we trade above the 1.2440 low.