Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

Originally Posted by chaudhry

Gud work Alejandro, nice trade
ur post gave a confirmation to ma long target 2575-2600
small bearish div is formin on 30 min,
a dip down to 2575 extended 2555 is wht i see before a rise,

Money Never sleeps....
here comes 2555,
another 10 pips banked on half on eu short from 2581 n half runnin for 20+ pips lookin for 2539 or R1 touch now...
daily pip count touches 150+ pips, enough for the day i guess...

Gud Luck n Happy Trading..
~ chaudhry ~

While technicals do certainly have a huge impact on FX trading, especially in the short term, traders cannot ignore fundamental stress points. The upcoming Greek election is one of those stress points. So here is my take...(albeit way too long)

I suspect the risks to EUR ahead of the Greek election are asymmetric and that the downside remains more vulnerable. I see three possible outcomes ahead of the vote on June 17.

1. Under the first scenario, which is also my central scenario given what I read before polls went dark, there will be another inconclusive outcome from the election followed by a negotiation period to form a government. That negotiation is highly likely to fail, leading to another round of elections. This might be the worst-case outcome for EURUSD because uncertainty is crippling for financial markets. It seems clear it is likely EUR would be under sharp downward pressure in the immediate aftermath, with a test or break of the cycle low of 1.2288 reasonably likely.

2. Under the second but still very good scenario, there would be a clear victory for the pro-bailout parties New Democracy and Pasok. If this is indeed the outcome from the election then EURUSD would presumably bounce higher, maybe as high as our estimated fair value of 1.2750.

3. Under the third scenario, there would be a clear victory for the anti-austerity parties with a Syriza-led government likely to push for renegotiation of the second bailout package. Given the softer stance taken by Syriza leader Tsipras in today’s FT article “my movement is committed to keeping Greece in the eurozone”, this scenario may not cause EURUSD to decline as much as scenario 1. I suspect EURUSD would still decline, though, because this outcome still carries the uncertainty and risk of tense bailout negotiations between Syriza and the Troika. With that in mind, a test of the 1.2288 low also seems the likely immediate outcome under this scenario.

The Greek election is not the only big or watershed event for next week. The FOMC on June 20 could also trigger sharp volatility, particularly in the event of unexpected aggressive accommodation in part as a response to global risk selloff in the wake of the Greek election. If the Fed does not unveil more easing measures this should be a EURUSD negative.

So be careful that the market does not unwind prior to avoid the large gap that happened last week. This is not the time to try to dance between the rain drops.

guy i just want to give a quick analysis for this pair as you remember that we talked about the blue, red and purple lines and i said any break above or below these lines ....
for the 30m analysis i just figured out that the price have to hold above 2500 level to continue north moves, any break below may delay the bullish sentiment or reverse it
simply on the chart you can see everything there.....
until then see you guys later....
2 charts
blue, red and purple 4h chart
and 30m chart with exist point
enjoy it ..

Originally Posted by NoGrn4grnhorn

I know this prolly isn't the forum to ask this, but its simple enough.....how do you get the us dollar chart and spx charts?...They aren't under the symbols tab and I can't add them.
thanks ahead of time.....

If using the FCXM trading station you can press on "symbols". If you have a CFD or spreadbetting account you would be able to see these markets - if not reach out to costumer support by pressing on chat - if you are using FXCM metatrader or a demo visit fxcm.com and look for the chat window

I hope this helps

Originally Posted by root-minus

Attachment 133382

scalp tg, booked most

secured

scaled in 1.25760

Originally Posted by root-minus

scaled in 1.25760

got some

Originally Posted by NoGrn4grnhorn

I know this prolly isn't the forum to ask this, but its simple enough.....how do you get the us dollar chart and spx charts?...They aren't under the symbols tab and I can't add them.
thanks ahead of time.....

I get em via dailyfx powercharts
PowerCharts from DailyFX | Forex Charts | DailyFX
SPX u will find under indices.

GL...

Originally Posted by root-minus

got some

booked both positions 1.25650


goodnight EURUSD, see you tomorrow

Im still hedged long as no concrete evidence of a turn-around at this point. The Ichi is turning back up and the cloud is thick. Just seeing some overhead resistance due to long term Fibo. If we break this Fibo I wouldnt be surprised to see 1.27650 . Happy trading!

Originally Posted by stkelrey

I see three possible outcomes ahead of the vote on June 17.

You missed:

4. The outcome is disputed. 50 seats ride on whether New Dems or Syriza has a very slender lead, and there are charges of serious irregularities at several voting locations; after days or weeks of investigation, the elections commission announces a winner but the losing side continues to cry foul.

This is not a high probability outcome, but it would be so much more disastrous than a simple inconclusive outcome that it should not be ignored.

Got my entry points ready to fire away

Originally Posted by Bignatx

Im still hedged long as no concrete evidence of a turn-around at this point. The Ichi is turning back up and the cloud is thick. Just seeing some overhead resistance due to long term Fibo. If we break this Fibo I wouldnt be surprised to see 1.27650 . Happy trading!

Brian, do the underlying fundamentals make a difference to your chart? While I have limited experience with Ichmoku but would like to read more about it. Looks pretty intense to say the least! I gave up my long position earlier today for some much needed profit! Love PROFIT! Anyway, your chart is making me neutral. I'm watching the trading range thin and if it breaks the FIB will it really blow past 1.2640 which is the predicted high and your are moving it up considerably. Very interested in your perspective. SQUARE!

MAKE MONEY and Ride this wave!!!!!!

I Still Trading Baseball sized hail here in Irving Texas Nothing can stop me lol

Originally Posted by RocketMaker1000

Brian, do the underlying fundamentals make a difference to your chart? While I have limited experience with Ichmoku but would like to read more about it. Looks pretty intense to say the least! I gave up my long position earlier today for some much needed profit! Love PROFIT! Anyway, your chart is making me neutral. I'm watching the trading range thin and if it breaks the FIB will it really blow past 1.2640 which is the predicted high and your are moving it up considerably. Very interested in your perspective. SQUARE!

Although I do keep an eye on the news daily...Fundamentals dont mean anything to me as far as my interpretation of what I see in the charts. In my opinion if you technically analyze the chart correct the fundamentals will just play into the charts accordingly. Ichimoku is my favorite indicator by far, but as everything it takes awhile to see all the ins and outs of it. The 1.26 is proving to be a very tough obstacle there is no doubt there is a lot of pressure on this overall downtrend. The 200 SMA is approaching on the 4 hour and not too far away on the daily, I wouldnt expect we get much higher than that. I will remain med term bullish while the lower trend line you see on my last chart stays intact. My prediction of my candlestick chart of 1.2640 is only due to my candlestick analysis. On this certain account I use mainly Ichi and Fibo Ive been hedged long since 1.23 and my stops are just below the top of the Kumo cloud around 1.25