Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

Originally Posted by biggari

i agree - problem with any longs (except scalps) is the sl needs to be below 12430

i don't trust any of the other higher lows as support - maybe a long just above 12515 prev. low is worth a punt with tight stop - think i might give that a go - if we drop down there

or maybe i'll take the dog for a walk then go to the pub and see if there's any footy on this afternoon instead (sorry - soccer)

Originally Posted by biggari

or maybe i'll take the dog for a walk then go to the pub and see if there's any footy on this afternoon instead (sorry - soccer)

highlight of today will be ireland versus spain ( but painful for me)

the way I see this ( my crystal ball... )....euro bears will be back in force after greek election.

Originally Posted by Allan Tuscany

Hello fellow traders
Hope u guys are doing better than me this week
Last trade I did was on monday. I made my weekly optimal tp tho..
I dont really like these choppy markets.. hope u guys dont have any losses..
Anyway im happy for my fascistic system not allowing me to take any trade in those markets

yes, I need to learn when not to trade.....all this chop has me confused.....every trade has been wrong.....I'll have to wait until down trend begins again.....build up my bank and try again

DailyFX.com Bulls vs. Bears: The Spread Betting Morning Update June 14 - 2012
Thank you for signing up to this distribution list.

Main presentation
http://blip.tv/dailyfxbullsvsbears/bulls-vs-bears-the-spread-betting-morning-update-june-14-2012-6203184

QA Session
http://www.livestream.com/dailyfx/video?clipId=pla_ba3ee055-dc91-480d-8bd7-8a0f34395d23&utm_source=lslibrary&utm_medium=ui-thumb





Yours sincerely

Alejandro Zambrano
Market strategist | DailyFX.com

A bit of a non-event this morning at 8:30 EST wouldn't you all agree?
I finally decided to be flat for major news and nothing happens out of the ordinary.

Originally Posted by biggari

or maybe i'll take the dog for a walk then go to the pub and see if there's any footy on this afternoon instead (sorry - soccer)

no no, you take the ball, and kick it with your foot. hence the name "foot-ball" lol.

well anyway here is a picture as to what i am seeing. based on 1 year and a half looking at the same chart with pivots and MA and what not, price looks bullish the way its set up.

pivot being support, resis being 1.26 (weekly R1) and target of a break would be R2

first we break to confirm

Traders at the big funds don't have access to the news so they don't know what's happening in Europe. The think that debt crisis is over and PIGS are in the markets again

I have been involved with the forex market for about 1.5 years now and have taken some hits along the way in my attempt to make money. Like most traders I am always looking for the fast huge profits. Recently I have slowed down and now take smaller profits based on percentages.
I have an excel spread sheet that allows me to figure out how much I can make over a period of time. Here is what I discovered. In my mind the magic number to make is $1 million. This can't be achieved overnight or even within a year (unless you are lucky), so how long will it take me to get to that number? I figure 8 years. Here is how.
If I start with a $100 micro account and make just 10% per month of my beginning monthly balance than it will take 8 years and 1 month to turn $100 into $1,000,000.
That sounds like a high % return but think about this.
If I was to have a $100 account, bought 1 E/U lot at say $30's, rode that for 25 pips once per week and than sold it, I would have made $2.50 that week which is 2.5% of the $100 opening account balance. If I was to do this once per week for 4 weeks than that is 10% per month right. Do this every month and at the end of 12 months the account now has a balance of $313.84. Not much but more than a 200% gain per year. There will be times during the process that I increase my lots purchased to maintain the same percentage increase but that is just money management. The 25 pips can be obtained in one shot or multiple shots such as trading 5 times and taking 5 pips profit each (scalping). This is a fairly easy profit margin to obtain and most indicator trading systems can help achieve the pips since they are small gains.
I just wanted to post this in case some new trader (or even a seasoned investor) is getting frustrated.
FYI for those looking to get REALLY RICH, after 10 years and 1 month the balance is $10,000,000.
Taxes along the way are not included in this ratio.
Reactions are welcome.

Hello traders! It is "Bad News is Good News" day as US employment claims are higher, US deficit is higher and Euro rallies. Hopes that Bernanke will unleash Operation Twist II or QE3 based on the weak data has made traders scramble to take a position ahead of that announcement. Quadruple Witching/options expiration also creating more volatility. EU authorities have pledged financial aid for Greece no matter what party wins in order to stabilize the situation. So the election may be a moot point so bring on "Risk On"

SSI Details:

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.40 as nearly 58% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.38 as 58% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 0.2% lower than yesterday and 1.6% stronger since last week. Short positions are 1.5% higher than yesterday and 25.5% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.8% stronger than yesterday and 9.4% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at 1.33 as nearly 57% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.82 as 65% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 0.8% lower than yesterday and 2.1% stronger since last week. Short positions are 35.5% higher than yesterday and 31.0% stronger since last week. Open interest is 12.0% stronger than yesterday and 3.3% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD losses.

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at 2.33 as nearly 70% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.45 as 71% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 1.2% higher than yesterday and 7.9% stronger since last week. Short positions are 6.1% higher than yesterday and 16.4% stronger since last week. Open interest is 2.6% stronger than yesterday and 8.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY losses.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 5.23 as nearly 84% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 5.11 as 84% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 0.5% higher than yesterday and 4.9% stronger since last week. Short positions are 1.8% lower than yesterday and 18.1% weaker since last week. Open interest is 0.1% stronger than yesterday and 12.4% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at -1.13 as nearly 53% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.09 as 52% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 2.6% higher than yesterday and 9.2% stronger since last week. Short positions are 6.5% higher than yesterday and 2.7% stronger since last week. Open interest is 4.6% stronger than yesterday and 6.5% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF gains.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at -1.21 as nearly 55% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.58 as 61% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 26.5% higher than yesterday and 12.9% stronger since last week. Short positions are 3.4% lower than yesterday and 2.2% weaker since last week. Open interest is 8.2% stronger than yesterday and 5.6% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD gains.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at 1.52 as nearly 60% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.30 as 57% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 10.2% higher than yesterday and 3.7% stronger since last week. Short positions are 6.1% lower than yesterday and 24.1% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.1% stronger than yesterday and 0.3% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD losses.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at 1.45 as nearly 59% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.49 as 60% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 0.3% lower than yesterday and 14.8% weaker since last week. Short positions are 2.3% higher than yesterday and 47.4% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.8% stronger than yesterday and 5.8% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD losses.

Discuss trading strategies with the SSI and other sentiment readings in the DailyFX forum!
*No warranties or guarantees are made with respect to the content contained herein. The website and the guests on this site do not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. The advice and trading ideas provided on this website are for informational purposes only and are not intended as a trading ideas. Under no circumstances does any advice or trading idea contained herein constitute a solicitation to buy and sell currencies. We do not endorse and cannot vouch for any of the guest traders on this site.

Originally Posted by NHAppraiser

I have been involved with the forex market for about 1.5 years now and have taken some hits along the way in my attempt to make money. Like most traders I am always looking for the fast huge profits. Recently I have slowed down and now take smaller profits based on percentages.
I have an excel spread sheet that allows me to figure out how much I can make over a period of time. Here is what I discovered. In my mind the magic number to make is $1 million. This can't be achieved overnight or even within a year (unless you are lucky), so how long will it take me to get to that number? I figure 8 years. Here is how.
If I start with a $100 micro account and make just 10% per month of my beginning monthly balance than it will take 8 years and 1 month to turn $100 into $1,000,000.
That sounds like a high % return but think about this.
If I was to have a $100 account, bought 1 E/U lot at say $30's, rode that for 25 pips once per week and than sold it, I would have made $2.50 that week which is 2.5% of the $100 opening account balance. If I was to do this once per week for 4 weeks than that is 10% per month right. Do this every month and at the end of 12 months the account now has a balance of $313.84. Not much but more than a 200% gain per year. There will be times during the process that I increase my lots purchased to maintain the same percentage increase but that is just money management. The 25 pips can be obtained in one shot or multiple shots such as trading 5 times and taking 5 pips profit each (scalping). This is a fairly easy profit margin to obtain and most indicator trading systems can help achieve the pips since they are small gains.
I just wanted to post this in case some new trader (or even a seasoned investor) is getting frustrated.
FYI for those looking to get REALLY RICH, after 12 years and 1 month the balance is $10,000,000.
Taxes along the way are not included in this ratio.
Reactions are welcome.

Am with you on this, NHAppraiser. Disciplining myself to do exactly the same trading journal after Greg shared a similar post. And it makes sense! Been burnt out several times but realized that Currency Trading is my passion so nothing can stop me from attaining my goals. Learning a lot through the sour and painstaking processes but also to taught myself to avoid the mistakes I had before and disciplining myself to stick with the good techniques which made me gain pips.

Hope everyone reach their goals and pocket all 'em pips this crazy market can give! Great Luck to Everyone!

Originally Posted by ThomasNotas

Traders at the big funds don't have access to the news so they don't know what's happening in Europe. The think that debt crisis is over and PIGS are in the markets again

need to you explain the comment "traders at the big funds don't have access to the news..."

sold 1.26004


manual stop, possibly adding a bit higher


scalp tg 1.25740

12619 is the 78.6% retrace from Monday's fall
12625 is a possible shoulderline
Daily R1 around 12630

target 12410



GL all


BoJ rate decision tonight may spur some risk off unless they do QE

Originally Posted by Alejandro Zambrano

It’s statistically impossible to prove that fundamentals have any bearing on price in the short term (periods of less than 3 years).

But the tulip-mania behavior has continued for 6 years now. Other moneys trade at prices that have some relation to what you can buy with the money, wobbling up and down by a few percent or being manipulated outside such a range for reasons we can understand. Analogy: I don't know if big stores outside the US do this kind of thing also, but here you can get "gift cards" (so-called because usually you get one when you are giving someone a present but want to let them pick out the specific thing themselves) for Barnes & Noble Bookstore or the Bed Bath & Beyond household goods chain or big general stores like Walmart or K-Mart. Now the thing is, a hundred-dollar gift card usually sells for pretty close to $100, but sometimes it will be discounted considerably if that chain is hoping to draw in new customers, just like you find some currencies that are intentionally depreciated, and the economic rationale is evident. But hundred-dollar gift cards to the Euro Store are the only ones in the world that sell for $120 apiece, and this is a general store that sells nothing that we couldn't buy other places, and avoid the special markup; now, a lot of people have little choice but to shop at the Euro Store, because there aren't any other stores except far away from where they live-- but of course, ever since the Euro Store gift cards started trading at these prices, the stores have been pretty empty of customers, while still remaining fully staffed and stuck with the same overhead costs. We keep hearing unsurprising news that this branch or the other can't meet payroll or pay the utility bills, but exuberance over news that a new loan has staved off bankruptcy seems a little misplaced when the CEO keeps announcing "We have no intention of returning to profitability-- ever." (I'm writing as Nowotny of the ECB just Bernanked the market, saying the ECB has no mission except inflation-fighting and they'll keep the euro high even though they know perfectly well that this will keep the whole EU bleeding in a years-long recession-- he didn't put it quite that bluntly but pretty close.)

I myself still have a $20 gift card to Borders Bookstore; when they shut down the majority of their branches, I intended to make a trip to one of the surviving stores before the whole chain folded, but I didn't get around to it. People who held long EUR/USD over the weekend of the gap-up made a good profit, but I would be horribly nervous holding long-euro over a weekend: one of these weekends inevitably they are going to have to spring a nasty surprise, maybe "If you are from Greece/Spain or you're not a citizen of any EU country, your euro holdings are being involuntarily converted to drachmas/pesetas".

Originally Posted by Alejandro Zambrano

it’s also possible to show that traders are herding (following the trend).

Yes, but this is a market the size of a whole continent-- how can the speculators be dominant? Don't the "commercials" who buy and sell euros because they have actual business in Europe, and the institutional investors buying and selling with intentions to hold for years, have more sway than the day-traders? It seems to me that people like us, going long or short but typically closing out the positions within a few hours or a couple days, should only have effects that all cancel out, beyond a daily or weekly time-frame. I can't understand how sheer "faddishness" (like the premium that a ----- bag commands over the price of a basically similar but no-name purse) can be the main driver in a business that I would have thought was filled with cold-headed calculations of economics.

Perhaps another analogy would be closer. Gold is another market that bears little relation to the fundamentals: yes, gold does have fundamental value, in terms of its industrial and aesthetic usages; those are similar to the uses for silver, but gold is better and in rarer supply, so for centuries the price of gold was 15-20 times the price of silver. Nowadays, that would be about $400 an ounce; all the markup beyond that is essentially speculative bubble, but one that is not going to burst anytime soon. Silver is not much used anymore for hoarding as a reliable storage-of-value, while gold is; and people rationally expect that even though they pay a high price for gold, there will still be people willing to pay similarly high prices when they want to sell the gold. The dollar similarly gets overpriced frequently, because of its reserve-currency role. Apparently the market has a deep confidence that the euro will always sell high. But where does that confidence come from? It is one thing to feel confident that the euro will not crash a thousand pips today (*shrug* it could happen, but the volatility isn't THAT bad) but what would make any of the really big players confident that it isn't going to drop a thousand pips in the next couple weeks?