Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

larger time frames for a while have been expecting up move but the news fundies types are ignoring it.....dont get me wrong price is and has been very bearish ,....we all know that ......but the indies have to turn at some point and keeping an eye on larger time frames for the turn on for me such as stochastics i changed tactics and started scalping longs more than shorts....

now mix change in bias as everyone still shortin meaning this pair will eventually go up which it has
now mix short covering in from larger retailers and hedge funders
now mix the latest bullish news of bank interventions combined with tech charts and the result is what we are seeing right now....

i have been hiting indicies and eur all day in and out with 99% of my trades seeing profit
only 1 bad trade which i closed out manually
even though I considor myself an extremely good scalp trader and this I am, i never forget that i am not bigger then the mkt which is why i say time and time again take your profits before the market takes it from you............

this if anything is good sense when we are seeing changes in trend from day to day

tech is now in play mixed with this bullish news could see mass up moves then beginning of next week back to sell offs in my opinion is quite highly possible

be safe and to those trying hardest to profit ....keep your chin up

Originally Posted by asylum

Why you looking to short in an uptrend

OK, here's a question: why do some people think of this as an "uptrend"? To me it looks like we are still in the middle of a massive downtrend, with some countertrends zags back up, but no way should we be going back to the March/April range (maybe that's my bias speaking, but it's also what the large-tf charts look like to me).

Originally Posted by asylum

trade with the trend and seeing that you're day trading the short term trend is up, were making higher lows and higher highs

I was talking about this morning when the 1H chart looked quite otherwise: we had just made a lower high followed by a lower low and then back up but shorter-tf showed the up decelerating before the previous high, and it turned around down-- so I sold, what was wrong with that? Of course I knew the percentage play is sometimes wrong, but I set what I thought was a perfectly reasonable stop-loss, which was exactly the worst place to put it. On the other hand, the NZD/USD play was in an uptrend that had been in place all week, buying on a "dip" that turned out to be the reversal-- or so it looked when it made a big slide, but though it tested my patience I didn't take it out and it's coming back my way, for the moment.

Originally Posted by asylum

if the trade then went sour you at least would know its not because of youre ability to read charts, sometimes even the best setups fail. give it a try learn candle sticks , trend lines and S/R thats a good start .

Candle sticks, trend lines and S/R are what I was looking at. Sometimes I make some money, just not as often as I lose.

Originally Posted by CodyB

This is a scary post if you are trading real money...go back to demo if you are guessing

My demo is what is doing GREAT:



The difference between that and the real account is that I don't make more than a trade a week (the EUR/USD short has been riding since April; it ain't broke so I don't fix it), and it's PURE fundie, no "techie" moves at all.

Originally Posted by CodyB

stop looking at things through such a strong BIAS based on the fundis. Dont even read or look at them for the next month...hard? for you yes but give it a shot.

THIS month? Yeah, that would be very hard. This month is life-or-death: if Europe commits suicide, the US will go down too, and it won't matter whether I have any of that "money" stuff, because guns and canned goods will be the only things that count.

Originally Posted by CodyB

In that month concentrate the same amount of time you put into trying to force your view on the market based on fundis into learning basic technical analysis. I think you'll be amazed at the progress you will make.

I've been studying the tech for three months now, and am amazed at the progress I am not making.

Originally Posted by CodyB

Spend the weekend absorbing the simple truths about ALL markets that are in this PDF.

Will do. You certainly didn't lead me wrong with that Douglas book.

Originally Posted by CodyB

it will be better to be flat into this weekend unless you are a gambler.

So, I'll be short-short-short. Right now, I decided 1.2630 was as high as it is going for now, and re-entered short, leaving entry orders to expand the position if it falls below 1.2600. Maybe I just won't even look again until Monday. EDIT: nope, it's going against me so I stopped out again.

I know you're concerned about me Cody, and I appreciate that, but don't worry. If I wipe out this batch of money, *shrug* it wasn't like I was going to be able to retire on it. If I fail at this, it will be far from the first thing I've failed at, but I don't fail at anything from not putting in enough time to give it my best shot.

[EDIT] BREAKING NEWS: Egyptian court dissolved the Parliament, restoring military rule. The argument was that with no new constitution in place (it was supposed to be finished months ago) and the old one totally disregarded, there was no legal basis for the elections; but the Presidential election is allowed to proceed (no, that doesn't make any sense). Egypt is not an oil state but this adds on to the Syria mess to raise the danger of a new round of Arab uprisings.

Originally Posted by Robert Eckert

OK, here's a question: why do some people think of this as an "uptrend"? To me it looks like we are still in the middle of a massive downtrend, with some countertrends zags back up, but no way should we be going back to the March/April range (maybe that's my bias speaking, but it's also what the large-tf charts look like to me).

I was talking about this morning when the 1H chart looked quite otherwise: we had just made a lower high followed by a lower low and then back up but shorter-tf showed the up decelerating before the previous high, and it turned around down-- so I sold, what was wrong with that? Of course I knew the percentage play is sometimes wrong, but I set what I thought was a perfectly reasonable stop-loss, which was exactly the worst place to put it. On the other hand, the NZD/USD play was in an uptrend that had been in place all week, buying on a "dip" that turned out to be the reversal-- or so it looked when it made a big slide, but though it tested my patience I didn't take it out and it's coming back my way, for the moment.

Candle sticks, trend lines and S/R are what I was looking at. Sometimes I make some money, just not as often as I lose.

My demo is what is doing GREAT:



The difference between that and the real account is that I don't make more than a trade a week (the EUR/USD short has been riding since April; it ain't broke so I don't fix it), and it's PURE fundie, no "techie" moves at all.

THIS month? Yeah, that would be very hard. This month is life-or-death: if Europe commits suicide, the US will go down too, and it won't matter whether I have any of that "money" stuff, because guns and canned goods will be the only things that count.

I've been studying the tech for three months now, and am amazed at the progress I am not making.

Will do. You certainly didn't lead me wrong with that Douglas book.

Perhaps I can answer some of these. Intraday traders can easily look at this being a med term or short term "up" trend. Therefore and being a tech trader myself until i see solid evidence of a turn around on the daily or 4 hour then this will remain bullish for me. Ichi moku has crossed upwards on 4hour and could cross on the daily soon. Anytime you think its a certain trend analyze it with all time frames, and remember that a downtrend on the dailys or weeklys doesnt mean a thing for the other charts. When you analyzing higher highs and lower lows also use other time frames because what makes a LH on a 15 min may not mean anything for the hourly which will take precedence over the smaller time frame.

Last but not least. I tell this to EVERYONE. Just junk your demo account. They NEVER do anything for you but help you understand the platform. Trading with fake money doesnt mean anything. It will never make anyone a better trader once they have learned how to use the platform. You never learn until you start trading with your first micro account. In fact it will probably just give you a false sense of security.

sold 1.26335


manual around 15 points

Why I am still bullish. Here is a chart of AJ, yes I know this is an EU forum however when I cant see the clearest picture I look to other charts. Here AJ looks very bullish to me. Pattern is breaking as we speak and IF breaks Im expecting it to follow the red path draggin up AU and in turn EU. The pattern is breaking and my path in order of what Im seeing go Red, purple and then blue.

My candlestick analysis of EU is 6 pips from target. My other accounts are still long and seeing plenty more upside.

Originally Posted by Robert Eckert

So, I'll be short-short-short. Right now, I decided 1.2630 was as high as it is going for now, and re-entered short, leaving entry orders to expand the position if it falls below 1.2600. Maybe I just won't even look again until Monday. EDIT: nope, it's going against me so I stopped out again.

I know you're concerned about me Cody, and I appreciate that, but don't worry. If I wipe out this batch of money, *shrug* it wasn't like I was going to be able to retire on it. If I fail at this, it will be far from the first thing I've failed at, but I don't fail at anything from not putting in enough time to give it my best shot.

[EDIT] BREAKING NEWS: Egyptian court dissolved the Parliament, restoring military rule. The argument was that with no new constitution in place (it was supposed to be finished months ago) and the old one totally disregarded, there was no legal basis for the elections; but the Presidential election is allowed to proceed (no, that doesn't make any sense). Egypt is not an oil state but this adds on to the Syria mess to raise the danger of a new round of Arab uprisings.

Thats what iam talking about, whats your sell signal ? gut feel dont work, hope dont work, you say you have been studying Candle sticks S&R and TL, but youre not using them when it matters most. the market can easily move another 30 or 40 pips up using the daily ATR as a guide, hope it works out for you.

Originally Posted by jogold18

over all im bearish the EUR and bullish the dollar. but the dollar still might have some room to head just a tab lower.

also what seems to be forming, is a bull flag on 30 min TF. we above the 200MA so its more likely will head up. unless we get back below the 200 im bullish shorter term

well the bull flag went well and we even had a retest which i was not expecting.

Originally Posted by jogold18

pivots and MA and what not, price looks bullish the way its set up.

pivot being support, resis being 1.26 (weekly R1) and target of a break would be R2

first we break to confirm

well almost there another little bit to go and R2 will be hit

Originally Posted by CodyB

Resistance is expected on Friday at 1.2675/85 and 1.2710/25: Look for support at 1.2510/25 and 1.2490

i got a similar level just a tab lower. but over all i do expect some kind of resis by 1.2660.

side note:

the thing is if we break that level (after a small retrace), a move higher is really likely towards the 1.2750 level..... if this down trend continues, then 1.2750 is where it could happen if we do get a small pop above the monthly pivot........
if for what ever reason we get a break of 1.2750 higher, then we could very well be closer to a "trend shift" in this pair and it would be possible that 1.2290 was a bottom of the longer term trend and the positive divergence on the weekly TF helps me with my analysis. if we get a weekly close this week or even next week above the monthly pivot, then i see the likelihood that we have in fact put a bottom on the weekly and monthly TF which should be significant in regard to new fundies coming out what ever they might be.......

this is what im seeing. if we break the monthly pivot is yet to be seen and i dont care if we do or dont. what i care about is the longer term chart that goes with it. if we break up and find support on thhe monthly pivot, then "NEXT" monthly pivot will be critical if we head higher or not.



this is the weekly chart that i am seeing.... if this is a true divergence signal, then we could break the monthly pivot and stay above it all month till the next monthly pivot. next monthly pivot we find support on it and head higher. again this is only if this divergence plays out.

Originally Posted by Bignatx

Perhaps I can answer some of these. Intraday traders can easily look at this being a med term or short term "up" trend. Therefore and being a tech trader myself until i see solid evidence of a turn around on the daily or 4 hour then this will remain bullish for me. Ichi moku has crossed upwards on 4hour and could cross on the daily soon. Anytime you think its a certain trend analyze it with all time frames, and remember that a downtrend on the dailys or weeklys doesnt mean a thing for the other charts. When you analyzing higher highs and lower lows also use other time frames because what makes a LH on a 15 min may not mean anything for the hourly which will take precedence over the smaller time frame.

Last but not least. I tell this to EVERYONE. Just junk your demo account. They NEVER do anything for you but help you understand the platform. Trading with fake money doesnt mean anything. It will never make anyone a better trader once they have learned how to use the platform. You never learn until you start trading with your first micro account. In fact it will probably just give you a false sense of security.

you gotta have some "skin" in the game......

ok guys, lets get serious here, im now updating my position and view of the euro, euro made another higher low, i moved my sl another 30 pip roughly, for the time being i think the 2580 levels should hold, the price may retest it to give us further conviction, if so and hold the we may accelerate to reach the 2800 level(remember tomorrow is Friday so trade safe guys>>>!)

Originally Posted by Robert Eckert

So, I'll be short-short-short. Right now, I decided 1.2630 was as high as it is going for now, and re-entered short, leaving entry orders to expand the position if it falls below 1.2600. Maybe I just won't even look again until Monday. EDIT: nope, it's going against me so I stopped out again.

why make a mistake, another mistake when u dont have to?

every day i smile to my self. i read these forums and i read people posting that they went short, short again, short again. do they and can they make money? yeah they can and prob do. but u have to be SO MUCH MORE careful when going "against the trend".
i smile and i think to my self, dont give in, i make money bec i trade with the trend, and if the trend is going up i only want to be looking to buy. but then comes these moments of price changing direction and heading lower maybe.

so this is where strykers first few words from his wall comes in handy. "patience is a virtue" the sooner we all learn this the sooner we can start walking to the bank.

what he means, or what i take from it, is dont jump in just bec u know price will go down. if the trend is up why short?
have some patience and wait for it to come to you and not the other way round.

the beginning is always the hardest and most critical in anything you do. its the beginning that makes you or breaks you and in most cases for traders, breaks them...... when u are new to something take it slow and be "safe" and have patience......... this is where the be safe and wait it out happens. let it roll over with out you taking any position let it come to you by "setting it self up for another move higher" thats if you follow the logic of the trend is your friend.......

anyway its way passed my hour and i just came on to see some posts.

Originally Posted by Alejandro Zambrano

You are now able to post images I Like

yes, no idea what happened, maybe got an update that fixed it

Originally Posted by jamilgaruty

ok guys, lets get serious here, im now updating my position and view of the euro, euro made another higher low, i moved my sl another 30 pip roughly, for the time being i think the 2580 levels should hold, the price may retest it to give us further conviction, if so and hold the we may accelerate to reach the 2800 level(remember tomorrow is Friday so trade safe guys>>>!)

I agree with you and im actually looking for more bullish activity. Take note of the Weekly Bullish Divergence. However If the weekly candle closes as is or a little bit higher I would assume next week will be a down week and could follow the path of the white arrow. Provided the weekend elections go haywire it could send us directly south following the yellow arrow. If we get good news I would assume this gets as high as 1.29-130 area or upper TL before it resumes south following the purple arrow. Nonetheless the charts are making this all very easy. Clear your charts daily to remove the bias everyone. Im going to watch my team smash the Miami Heat. Thunder up!

Originally Posted by root-minus

sold 1.26335


manual around 15 points

secured it, momentum south is weak

I was one of the few that went long the pair. It paid off in the end. Here is a Time lapse of the Trade and sorry it ended before hitting my target. But its fun to watch.