Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

Originally Posted by root-minus

secured it, momentum south is weak

further scale in

Had to go to an Electric Car Show today in Jersey City to show off an EV and last night I went long but put in some stops just in case of a total meltdown over night. Well I checked my account mid day today and saw the EUR/USD was way up and I was jazzed! Unfortunately I looked at my account, the stupid lower level of my stop was executed overnight!!! AAAAHHHHH!!! Instincts where good but just plain was too conservative! Oh well. Looking for more opportunities tomorrow! No EV shows tomorrow! Right before the big election on Sunday! Will they support the EU or Not! Which party is going to pull it off! Will Greece pull themselves out of the EU? Zimbabwe anyone?

Originally Posted by root-minus

further scale in

booked scale in, booked most upper entry


just gonna leave it now


goodnight EURUSD, see you tomorrow ( HOPEFULLY IN A SINK HOLE )

Originally Posted by Bignatx

Perhaps I can answer some of these. Intraday traders can easily look at this being a med term or short term "up" trend. Therefore and being a tech trader myself until i see solid evidence of a turn around on the daily or 4 hour then this will remain bullish for me. Ichi moku has crossed upwards on 4hour and could cross on the daily soon. Anytime you think its a certain trend analyze it with all time frames, and remember that a downtrend on the dailys or weeklys doesnt mean a thing for the other charts.

OK, certainly just looking at the last couple days the trend is up. Calling it a "short-term uptrend" I can agree with, or even "medium-term" since it is more than a week now. The kind of scale I was looking at was:



All April it was sitting on a shelf, a bit lower than its March range, just waiting to make up its mind to go ahead and crash (or in fundie terms, Asian buyers were still propping it up against the bearish structural bias but by the first week of May they had finished paying for their big purchases). Starting in June we see a lot of choppiness, and yes it is sloping up, but I see it as another "shelf" of consolidation (more uneven because there is not a consistent mass of euro buyers like the Asians last time around, but impulsive bursts of buying) before the crash resumes.

Originally Posted by Bignatx

When you analyzing higher highs and lower lows also use other time frames because what makes a LH on a 15 min may not mean anything for the hourly which will take precedence over the smaller time frame.

When I was looking for the end of this morning's uptick, the one-hour scale was what I looked at primarily.

Originally Posted by Bignatx

Last but not least. I tell this to EVERYONE. Just junk your demo account. They NEVER do anything for you but help you understand the platform. Trading with fake money doesnt mean anything. It will never make anyone a better trader once they have learned how to use the platform. You never learn until you start trading with your first micro account. In fact it will probably just give you a false sense of security.

I have paid less and less attention to it. Indeed the psychology is totally different when there is real money at stake. What the demo gives me, actually, is the realization that the more active I am the more damage I do to myself.

Originally Posted by asylum

Thats what iam talking about, whats your sell signal ?

For that late afternoon tentative entry, I was just thinking that a bunch of long-euro folks might close out everything prior to NY 5PM and give a 20-pip shove down; the stop was set tight, in case it wasn't happening, which it wasn't, so it was just a quick in-and-out for $10 loss, no biggy.

Originally Posted by asylum

gut feel dont work, hope dont work, you say you have been studying Candle sticks S&R and TL, but youre not using them when it matters most.

The candle-sticks were turning into little stubby dojis. That could have signaled turnaround. It could also have just meant that everybody was knocking off early for the afternoon, which is more what it turned out to be.

Originally Posted by asylum

the market can easily move another 30 or 40 pips up using the daily ATR as a guide, hope it works out for you.

Sure doesn't look like there's any more gas left for any up. I think I've already missed the top, and should have just left the 4PM short running.
EDIT: split the difference between us. It had another 15 pips to go; I put on the short at 1.2644, hope to be able to leave it there for days.

Originally Posted by jogold18

why make a mistake, another mistake when u dont have to?

Missing the giant crash would be the worst mistake. Spain hit the 7% panic-button yield, anybody who thinks the Greek elections will endorse the March bailout agreement is out of their mind, the French elections will be non-disastrous but create a very weak government at the very worst time, Egypt, Syria, and Iran all have the potential to explode, and FOMC is not going to do a thing, no matter what anybody says, when the ECB needs room to forcibly depreciate the euro if they finally decide to.

Originally Posted by jogold18

every day i smile to my self. i read these forums and i read people posting that they went short, short again, short again. do they and can they make money? yeah they can and prob do. but u have to be SO MUCH MORE careful when going "against the trend".

I see the up as only a minor interruption in the big trend.

Originally Posted by jogold18

i smile and i think to my self, dont give in, i make money bec i trade with the trend, and if the trend is going up i only want to be looking to buy. but then comes these moments of price changing direction and heading lower maybe.

Falling off a cliff, maybe.

Originally Posted by jogold18

have some patience and wait for it to come to you and not the other way round.

Today and part of tomorrow it will be OK to wait. All I was saying was that I am definitely not staying out for the over-weekend hold. That would be waiting for it to fly by me.

Originally Posted by Robert Eckert

OK, certainly just looking at the last couple days the trend is up. Calling it a "short-term uptrend" I can agree with, or even "medium-term" since it is more than a week now. The kind of scale I was looking at was:



All April it was sitting on a shelf, a bit lower than its March range, just waiting to make up its mind to go ahead and crash (or in fundie terms, Asian buyers were still propping it up against the bearish structural bias but by the first week of May they had finished paying for their big purchases). Starting in June we see a lot of choppiness, and yes it is sloping up, but I see it as another "shelf" of consolidation (more uneven because there is not a consistent mass of euro buyers like the Asians last time around, but impulsive bursts of buying) before the crash resumes.

When I was looking for the end of this morning's uptick, the one-hour scale was what I looked at primarily.

I have paid less and less attention to it. Indeed the psychology is totally different when there is real money at stake. What the demo gives me, actually, is the realization that the more active I am the more damage I do to myself.

For that late afternoon tentative entry, I was just thinking that a bunch of long-euro folks might close out everything prior to NY 5PM and give a 20-pip shove down; the stop was set tight, in case it wasn't happening, which it wasn't, so it was just a quick in-and-out for $10 loss, no biggy.

The candle-sticks were turning into little stubby dojis. That could have signaled turnaround. It could also have just meant that everybody was knocking off early for the afternoon, which is more what it turned out to be.

Sure doesn't look like there's any more gas left for any up. I think I've already missed the top, and should have just left the 4PM short running.
EDIT: split the difference between us. It had another 15 pips to go; I put on the short at 1.2644, hope to be able to leave it there for days.

Missing the giant crash would be the worst mistake. Spain hit the 7% panic-button yield, anybody who thinks the Greek elections will endorse the March bailout agreement is out of their mind, the French elections will be non-disastrous but create a very weak government at the very worst time, Egypt, Syria, and Iran all have the potential to explode, and FOMC is not going to do a thing, no matter what anybody says, when the ECB needs room to forcibly depreciate the euro if they finally decide to.

I see the up as only a minor interruption in the big trend.

Falling off a cliff, maybe.

Today and part of tomorrow it will be OK to wait. All I was saying was that I am definitely not staying out for the over-weekend hold. That would be waiting for it to fly by me.

you're still stuck on a bias that it HAS to go down only. One cannot trade effectively with any bias in FX. Look at the $index on the weekly chart and tell me what you see. The EU takes the stairs up but the elevator down, it always has but those stairs can be many many stories high and wear ya out on the climb.

bottom line for you is simple why you keep losing IMHO..the bias you hold based on your interpretation of the fundis.
The foex market can stay irrational far longer then you can stay solvent trading like you do.
I still see 1.3 before 1.2 and think the low is in...for now.....charts posted weeks ago and nothing has changed that for me. BUT I do not have a long bias because IF I am correct, the market WILL STILL go up and it will go down and I'll trade it both ways. Soon I am done for the summer, until labor day.

we are above 2623 and next short term target is 2653 and 2681. you can still look for a DT at 2660 for a few pips also. If we dump 2600 and 2588 and 2562

Originally Posted by CodyB

you're still stuck on a bias that it HAS to go down only. One cannot trade effectively with any bias in FX. Look at the $index on the weekly chart and tell me what you see. The EU takes the stairs up but the elevator down, it always has but those stairs can be many many stories high and wear ya out on the climb.

bottom line for you is simple why you keep losing IMHO..the bias you hold based on your interpretation of the fundis.
The foex market can stay irrational far longer then you can stay solvent trading like you do.
I still see 1.3 before 1.2 and think the low is in...for now.....charts posted weeks ago and nothing has changed that for me. BUT I do not have a long bias because IF I am correct, the market WILL STILL go up and it will go down and I'll trade it both ways. Soon I am done for the summer, until labor day.

we are above 2623 and next short term target is 2653 and 2681. you can still look for a DT at 2660 for a few pips also. If we dump 2600 and 2588 and 2562

I learned the hard way. You have to always be ready to change your view based on price action. Adapt, sometimes it may be hard to recognize a top, or bottom. But oversold, or toping patterns on the chart give clues its coming. When not sure stay on the sidelines till corrections are complete. Wait for a resumption of the bigger picture. I had to get over the idea we must trade everyday! Your fundamental view is for long term trades. Like a short at 1.32 and hold. Using fundamentals, and getting in, and out. Seems risky without a look at price action on a chart.

I put on the short at 1.2644,

give yourself some confidence back and take part off this trade at +15 and move stops to BE-15 for a free trade at the least...if it keeps moving south move your stop for banked pips as it goes but dont give up pips. never have I ever given up a 15 pip trade for anything less than a small profit.

you see I'll take 100 pips from 25 trades if need be and trade other pairs also but I'll be damned if I'll give back pips from a winner..and a winner is any trade that goes into the +
I am cheap in fx but it has given me an easy life debt free

Originally Posted by Luxuriant

I learned the hard way. You have to always be ready to change your view based on price action. Adapt, sometimes it may be hard to recognize a top, or bottom. But oversold, or toping patterns on the chart give clues its coming. When not sure stay on the sidelines till corrections are complete. Wait for a resumption of the bigger picture. I had to get over the idea we must trade everyday! Your fundamental view is for long term trades. Like a short at 1.32 and hold. Using fundamentals, and getting in, and out. Seems risky without a look at price action on a chart.

I had to get over the idea we must trade everyday

I love to see this

many see the ads for the EA's out there or systems custom made that advertise X number of pips per day average or some such nonsense. No-one that trades forex for a living count on X number of pips per day or even looks for any number per day. You can only make what the market gives you and some days thats NONE, price never comes to you, those days are winners because you did not lose money.

Originally Posted by CodyB

you're still stuck on a bias that it HAS to go down only. One cannot trade effectively with any bias in FX. Look at the $index on the weekly chart and tell me what you see. The EU takes the stairs up but the elevator down, it always has but those stairs can be many many stories high and wear ya out on the climb.

bottom line for you is simple why you keep losing IMHO..the bias you hold based on your interpretation of the fundis.
The foex market can stay irrational far longer then you can stay solvent trading like you do.
I still see 1.3 before 1.2 and think the low is in...for now.....charts posted weeks ago and nothing has changed that for me. BUT I do not have a long bias because IF I am correct, the market WILL STILL go up and it will go down and I'll trade it both ways. Soon I am done for the summer, until labor day.

we are above 2623 and next short term target is 2653 and 2681. you can still look for a DT at 2660 for a few pips also. If we dump 2600 and 2588 and 2562

The age old debate - techies vs. fundies: From my experience in the equity markets - I can safely say technical analysts have little place apart from them being used by prop desks at institutionals to time long or short trades. However, such trades are almost always driven by a fundamental view.

I wish it was the same in FX Rob, but it just ain't. Techies do matter - as much as it aches me - i have to give credit to good techies who muster up the courage to actually go long the Euro during a time of crisis and ahead of a dangerous weekend. The beauty in the techie's trading strategy is stop losses. Cody doesn't care if his long doesn't work, it won't work only for a certain amount of pips - then he'll quickly switch to short. This nimbleness is amazing.

It's almost as if we went long and short via call and put options on the euro as opposed to being long or short spot. This way, our risk is limited to the premium paid.

I am remaining short over the weekend, and sadly owing to limitations at my broker, I have to do so via short spot positions. Ideally you wanna be short via a put option on the Euro.
Midas

p.s interesting data point out of Greece yesterday: 15% of those who can vote remain undecided - so next 48 hours, there is a lot that can happen.

Assessment of day. EUR/USD is above the 1.2625 prevalence above this level will lead us to 1.2669 where is the previous high, break out of 1.26669 will lead us to 1.2700. Not prevelance over 1.2625 will lead us to 1.2535. The closing of the day will tell us much ...

30m

Originally Posted by EuroTraderApp

The age old debate - techies vs. fundies: From my experience in the equity markets - I can safely say technical analysts have little place apart from them being used by prop desks at institutionals to time long or short trades. However, such trades are almost always driven by a fundamental view.

I wish it was the same in FX Rob, but it just ain't. Techies do matter - as much as it aches me - i have to give credit to good techies who muster up the courage to actually go long the Euro during a time of crisis and ahead of a dangerous weekend. The beauty in the techie's trading strategy is stop losses. Cody doesn't care if his long doesn't work, it won't work only for a certain amount of pips - then he'll quickly switch to short. This nimbleness is amazing.

It's almost as if we went long and short via call and put options on the euro as opposed to being long or short spot. This way, our risk is limited to the premium paid.

I am remaining short over the weekend, and sadly owing to limitations at my broker, I have to do so via short spot positions. Ideally you wanna be short via a put option on the Euro.
Midas

p.s interesting data point out of Greece yesterday: 15% of those who can vote remain undecided - so next 48 hours, there is a lot that can happen.

I watch the fundis very closely and on an intraday basis they do influence my trades but when I do my Sunday preview starting from the monthly charts they play no role at all. my stops are tighter on CT trades is all and if possible will be flat for all major events.

the point I am trying to make is BIAS...you cannot trade with one in the long run and by the long run I mean 50 to 100 thousand trades and more. Last year I took 5220 trades and not a single one was based on any market bias long or short. They were based on the charts in front of me only. Then again I am a scalper and am as happy with one pip as I am with 100 pips.

Truth is for the intraday trader.......

to the usual argument going on regarding Technicals Vs Fundamentals, and which comes first to rely on whats more effective to base judgment on. The simple truth of the matter is that one needs both to profitably trade intraday charts. Its more sensible to technically measure & trade a fundamental event on a market, than to blind trade the market technically.

I do get ALL the major bank releases throughout the day and their outlook on the markets and the only reason I subscribe to them is for the why things will move other things and the correlation they all have, it gives you a better overall outlook on the market to determine the weak from the strong currencies.

Debt crisis: Germany signals shift on €2.3 trillion redemption fund for Europe - Telegraph

07:12:44 RORY KEAVENY : Following the shift in tone in the US equity market yesterday, Europe followed suite and announcement that CENTRAL BANKS PREPARING FOR COORDINATED ACTION TO PROVIDE LIQUIDITY IF NEEDED AFTER GREEK ELECTION-G20 SOURCES helped buoy risk assets. We saw short EUR, short risk position trimming and i expect more of the same today. Chatter of better Greek polls (betting exchanges pit ND with 65-70% chance of winning), G20 and FOMC meetings looming, whilst it looks like Germany prepared to soften its stance over Greece (), as well as the emergency liq provision if needed.

good night, goodbye, see ya monday

truth is these greek elections are too powerful for me to attempt to trade. Long? short? its too big a gamble and i work too hard for my money...vacation coming till labor day, it might start this weekend.

Originally Posted by CodyB

Debt crisis: Germany signals shift on €2.3 trillion redemption fund for Europe - Telegraph

07:12:44 RORY KEAVENY : Following the shift in tone in the US equity market yesterday, Europe followed suite and announcement that CENTRAL BANKS PREPARING FOR COORDINATED ACTION TO PROVIDE LIQUIDITY IF NEEDED AFTER GREEK ELECTION-G20 SOURCES helped buoy risk assets. We saw short EUR, short risk position trimming and i expect more of the same today. Chatter of better Greek polls (betting exchanges pit ND with 65-70% chance of winning), G20 and FOMC meetings looming, whilst it looks like Germany prepared to soften its stance over Greece (), as well as the emergency liq provision if needed.

good night, goodbye, see ya monday

truth is these greek elections are too powerful for me to attempt to trade. Long? short? its too big a gamble and i work too hard for my money...vacation coming till labor day, it might start this weekend.

Let me help. Short.

Originally Posted by EuroTraderApp

Let me help. Short.

I love that kind of confidence - 13000 here we come

Originally Posted by biggari

I love that kind of confidence - 13000 here we come

LOL 1.300 - probably best to morgtage and remortgage your house, and plow into the mega short of the century if we get that level.