Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

Originally Posted by scalping fool

I prefer to wait till after the 10:00 AM hour, NY time and see how the momentum holds up


Gregory and Garr70, I don't have the experience to give an educated opinion but I have heard from other traders that the first portion of the days trade includes automatic fills for stock trades placed the previous session and also there has also been stories of the early portion being "Amateur Hour".

Also Jamie Saettele (FXCM) has key trade times he watches, 8AM-10AM, 3AM-4AM for session highs/lows.

Thanks, i think i just realised my laziness for not researching the above. so i am going to look at this a bit more. thanks again.

Originally Posted by jogold18

by the look of it if we get a new high on 5 min, it could take us passed the daily pivot (1.2626) and if broken, can take us to 1.2660 with a sharp move up. first we need to break.

GL

the new high did happen and i made sure i was on board with more then one long in the open. when it broke the way it did, it confirmed the break was good and we would get a strong move up to the 1.2660 level. we are almost there, but i see that level as only a short term resis, wehre after some time i expect 1.2660 to break higher. the thing is, will we head passed weekly R1 and find support after breaking higher, or will we first counter that resis first before a move higher?

ill be looking closely at that level........

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Hello Scalpingfool! Why do you think the 10:00Am hour is so significant for the market? I have noticed reversal happening around that time as well.

i can answer that. i dont think its the 10 hour on the dot that is important.
ive done some back testing on this, (well actually alot) and what iv'e spotted is one hour and half before and after the london closing time. not alsways but somtimes price gets small reversal's when a session closes. the most significant is london & NY session that more times then not take price in one direction. when Tokyo opens it sometimes starts a new shorter term trend.
do some back testing, and you will see that new session open/close start shorter term trend reversals.

anyway GL

I am happy that we finally go the break and that hope that we reach 1.27 today. I spent a bit too many pips being long and being short scalping ahead of the break.

I wanted to hedge my AUD/USD short via EUR/USD. If we reach 1.27 then it would have been worth it.

Originally Posted by scalping fool

I prefer to wait till after the 10:00 AM hour, NY time and see how the momentum holds up


Gregory and Garr70, I don't have the experience to give an educated opinion but I have heard from other traders that the first portion of the days trade includes automatic fills for stock trades placed the previous session and also there has also been stories of the early portion being "Amateur Hour".

Also Jamie Saettele (FXCM) has key trade times he watches, 8AM-10AM, 3AM-4AM for session highs/lows.

The time overlapping session opening/closing is often volatile and sometimes can show reversals. The time around London closing is called London Fixing, when London desks close shop for the day and doing things about their positions, often there is a dash to the other side, but sometimes the trend can continue.

Between Frankfurt open and London open there is a lot of juggling for positions of European desks, often Frankfurt hours deliver fake moves that get reversed or extended by London open. Around 10.30-12.00 London time Euro can sometimes have a small intraday top, then around London lunch time another small reversal.

The first 30-60m of NY open can often set the high or low for the day, if you trade futures (ES, YM, TF etc.) you will see this more easily as this is not so pronounced in currencies. Currency futures pit open 80minutes before cash session opens. Many institutions or big traders would wait for the dust to settle after the first 30m or 60m before taking positions. But this is more about indices futures, less about currencies or spot forex, it can still affect volatility of currency markets. Overlapping sessions also provide big institutions traders or hedge funds better fill in their orders so their transaction costs can be kept lower. These are all basic mechanics of market order flows.

In cycle studies, early European morning, European lunch time, London fixing and early Asia open are all cycle points for intradays. But cycles are more of an art than science, it is not precise and would not be the same everytime. Just something to keep in the back of one's mind.

Originally Posted by jogold18

the new high did happen and i made sure i was on board with more then one long in the open. when it broke the way it did, it confirmed the break was good and we would get a strong move up to the 1.2660 level. we are almost there, but i see that level as only a short term resis, wehre after some time i expect 1.2660 to break higher. the thing is, will we head passed weekly R1 and find support after breaking higher, or will we first counter that resis first before a move higher?

ill be looking closely at that level........




i can answer that. i dont think its the 10 hour on the dot that is important.
ive done some back testing on this, (well actually alot) and what iv'e spotted is one hour and half before and after the london closing time. not alsways but somtimes price gets small reversal's when a session closes. the most significant is london & NY session that more times then not take price in one direction. when Tokyo opens it sometimes starts a new shorter term trend.
do some back testing, and you will see that new session open/close start shorter term trend reversals.

anyway GL

There is really no resistance between 1.2650 - 1.2700 so your long should be ok. See highlighted area. We can of course trade to 1.2630 (breakout level) before we continue to trade higher but as long as we trade above 1.26 we should be fine. Traders that did not buy the first time will most likely enter if we do so.

30 min time frame

just drawn a trend line from yesterdays highs - wish i'd done that an hour ago

I don't know if you noticed this yourself but we got a head and shoulders break in USD/CAD

We are talking about an additional 175 pips decline that is left on the table

http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/commo...ml#post1200608

Originally Posted by DolceVista

The time overlapping session opening/closing is often volatile and sometimes can show reversals. The time around London closing is called London Fixing, when London desks close shop for the day and doing things about their positions, often there is a dash to the other side, but sometimes the trend can continue.

Between Frankfurt open and London open there is a lot of juggling for positions of European desks, often Frankfurt hours deliver fake moves that get reversed or extended by London open. Around 10.30-12.00 London time Euro can sometimes have a small intraday top, then around London lunch time another small reversal.

The first 30-60m of NY open can often set the high or low for the day, if you trade futures (ES, YM, TF etc.) you will see this more easily as this is not so pronounced in currencies. Currency futures pit open 80minutes before cash session opens. Many institutions or big traders would wait for the dust to settle after the first 30m or 60m before taking positions. But this is more about indices futures, less about currencies or spot forex, it can still affect volatility of currency markets. Overlapping sessions also provide big institutions traders or hedge funds better fill in their orders so their transaction costs can be kept lower. These are all basic mechanics of market order flows.

In cycle studies, early European morning, European lunch time, London fixing and early Asia open are all cycle points for intradays. But cycles are more of an art than science, it is not precise and would not be the same everytime. Just something to keep in the back of one's mind.

Simply Brilliant explanation DolceVista. Thanks for sharing your insights.

Hey Alejandro,

As always, thanks for all the great info on you webinar!! I've hear you say in your intro video to your system and in your webinars that you're right about 50% of the time with a profit / loss ratio of about 1.6:1 to 1.7:1. What I was wondering is, how often - if at all - do you close trades before they hit their original targets? That is, how accurate is the system in predicting targets to be hit?

I ask, because I still have hard time holding onto trades to their completion and find myself closing them at say 60%-80% of the target. This also has to do with my being in Europe and not wanting to abandon my trades to the whims of the US market while I eat my dinner and spend QT with my girlfriend

Thanks!!

Brian

Goofy rally IMO. Sell the news tomorrow.

Originally Posted by bfleming

Hey Alejandro,

As always, thanks for all the great info on you webinar!! I've hear you say in your intro video to your system and in your webinars that you're right about 50% of the time with a profit / loss ratio of about 1.6:1 to 1.7:1. What I was wondering is, how often - if at all - do you close trades before they hit their original targets? That is, how accurate is the system in predicting targets to be hit?

I ask, because I still have hard time holding onto trades to their completion and find myself closing them at say 60%-80% of the target. This also has to do with my being in Europe and not wanting to abandon my trades to the whims of the US market while I eat my dinner and spend QT with my girlfriend

Thanks!!

Brian

Hi,

I should have RR of 2 and not 1:70 so it apparently we have the same problem i.e. closing out a bit too early - when I take a position I always have a RR of 2 but some how I end but close to 1.70 - but I don't bother too much to correct this as this a bit to random to work out.

When I do lose money thats when I try to be too short term and not mentally ready to trade. This can be due to that I have not sleep well enough or if I am stuck in a losing streak.

this is the best tip I can give you - check out the video
MoneyShow.com - Profitable Advice from Investing and Trading Experts

I limited out on my EUR/USD and AUD/USD long - will look to buy AUD/USD and GBP/USD on a dip overnight

Originally Posted by Alejandro Zambrano

Hi,

I should have RR of 2 and not 1:70 so it apparently we have the same problem i.e. closing out a bit too early - when I take a position I always have a RR of 2 but some how I end but close to 1.70 - but I don't bother too much to correct this as this a bit to random to work out.

When I do lose money thats when I try to be too short term and not mentally ready to trade. This can be due to that I have not sleep well enough or if I am stuck in a losing streak.

this is the best tip I can give you - check out the video
MoneyShow.com - Profitable Advice from Investing and Trading Experts

Thanks for the reply and link!! And thanks for reminding me even the professionals face the same problems with not being mentally ready to trade for different reasons. I'm still working hard (not always successfully) not to trade when I feel I'm not on top of my game... Practice, practice, practice...

Originally Posted by Alejandro Zambrano

Hi,

I should have RR of 2 and not 1:70 so it apparently we have the same problem i.e. closing out a bit too early - when I take a position I always have a RR of 2 but some how I end but close to 1.70 - but I don't bother too much to correct this as this a bit to random to work out.

When I do lose money thats when I try to be too short term and not mentally ready to trade. This can be due to that I have not sleep well enough or if I am stuck in a losing streak.

this is the best tip I can give you - check out the video
MoneyShow.com - Profitable Advice from Investing and Trading Experts

Very interesting video!
And of course I find you very charming and camera friendly!

Interesting article

The secret's out: No one has any idea how the Euro is going to perform against the dollar.

Ticker Sense's Laszlo Birinyi has compiled the major Wall Street analysts' forecasts for the Euro against the U.S. dollar movement, and found an incredible divergence.

Read more: Your Guess Is As Good As Experts' When It Comes To The Euro - Business Insider



Your Guess Is As Good As Experts' When It Comes To The Euro - Business Insider