Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

Originally Posted by bfleming

Thanks for the reply and link!! And thanks for reminding me even the professionals face the same problems with not being mentally ready to trade for different reasons. I'm still working hard (not always successfully) not to trade when I feel I'm not on top of my game... Practice, practice, practice...

Yepp we are not so much different - when you crack the system its all about following it - that's the hard part - there are many different traps most of them are mentally - there are traps when to trade to good -> ending up with over leverage and when you trade bad -> just want to get your money back.

One tip is to look at the markets - take a position with stops and limits. Close the computer and not look at it until the next day. Get rid of the iphone app

Take our new polll! What will the Fed do?

See above

Originally Posted by Alejandro Zambrano

Interesting article

The secret's out: No one has any idea how the Euro is going to perform against the dollar.

Ticker Sense's Laszlo Birinyi has compiled the major Wall Street analysts' forecasts for the Euro against the U.S. dollar movement, and found an incredible divergence.

Read more: Your Guess Is As Good As Experts' When It Comes To The Euro - Business Insider



Your Guess Is As Good As Experts' When It Comes To The Euro - Business Insider

I don't even try to guess how high or how low anymore, just look at the short term trend and try to buy an uptrend near S2 or sell a down trend near R2 and take profit at the opposite. I love to see all these projections and I am sure someone will be right in the end but for me there is no sense to how the market behaves.

Originally Posted by EuroTraderApp

Rob - Bernanke to extend TWIST tomorrow? I have a genuine feeling they will do nothing - especially after the "favourable" outcome in Greece. Surely this is the opportunity to rid the market of their addiction to QE?

I have a feeling they would prefer to do nothing, but will have to do something just so they don't look insensitive; a little more Twistiness might fill the bill (there isn't much more effectiveness in that, but it can't do any harm either).

Originally Posted by Alejandro Zambrano

We have a new guy at the office from Greece - he is very bearish too - he thinks that Greece will leave the Euro - I don't know however how good he is with the markets.

Whether or not you think he's steering you right on market movements, do pay attention to what he has to say about the developing mood in Greece. The long delay in announcing a new government, despite everybody saying there's no real problem, is a sign of serious tensions (although much of it may simply be personality rather than substance: Samaras has a long history of quarrels and untrustworthiness that makes it hard for others to want to put him in the top spot-- think Newt Gingrich if you are from the US, or Nick Clegg if you are from the UK).

Originally Posted by Alejandro Zambrano

I don't know if you noticed this yourself but we got a head and shoulders break in USD/CAD

We are talking about an additional 175 pips decline that is left on the table

One of my irritants for the day. I kept shorting USD/CAD at the wrong time, or at the right time but with too tight a stop; finally got a profit, but when I added up the losses to offset the profit, I was less than $1 up overall.

Originally Posted by EuroTraderApp

They won't be tightening the rate - it makes no sense in this economic environment.

Sense? You expect their actions to make sense?

Originally Posted by EuroTraderApp

I don't think its fair on the ECB to expect them to print us out of this mess. Without a common fiscal or monetary union a la the U.S, it makes no sense for the ECB to pursue a growth oriented mandate (unless Lisbon is re-written).

The Lisbon Treaty was a suicide pact. Everybody can see that now except those with the power to do anything about it.

Originally Posted by EuroTraderApp

I agree on the marking-to-market of debt and taking the ensuing haircuts on holdings but strangely, I am starting to agree with Tsipras: In some instances, big tranches of debt simply need to be forgiven.

I was hoping for Tzipras to win outright, make a clean break of things. Oh well.

Originally Posted by EuroTraderApp

Also Rob - I found the sensitivity analysis of +1% change in EUR/USD = -1% shave off Eurozone GDP very interesting - can you point me in the direction of this analysis (weblink?).
thanks,
Midas

There is no weblink: it's my own sloppy correlations of exchange rates and GDP's (for the weaker economies; Germany has shown no particular sensitivity to the rate, nor the Netherlands, and France not much). When I first mentioned it (I think way back before you were on this board), I described my methodology as essentially "posterior extraction".

Credit Suisse puts probability of QE at 80%, 20% nothing will be done.

80% split as follows

60% - extension of TWIST (its balance sheet neutral, hence not likely to face too much opposition) - prob rally to 1.275 and fade to parity
15% - further QE2 (mortgage backed paper to be purchased too) - prob higher rally to 1.29 and fade to parity
5% - something else (likely language becoming more tough) - fade from current levels

20% - they do nothing - strong sell

I'm shorting.
Midas

London session review and outlook June 19 - 2012
Review of markets covered in today's edition of Bulls vs. Bears: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, FTSE100, S&P500, Gold, Brent Crude and WTI.




Regards

Alejandro Zambrano
Currency Strategist | DailyFX Forum (London)
azambrano@fxcm.com

Follow me on twitter: https://twitter.com/AlejandroDFX


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Yea...I came back from class and my long position was reached for 65 pips.....My first good trade in a while.....Now if I can continue my learning...thanks to all that help....

As per setup it may be the scene next (USDCHF)

Originally Posted by EuroTraderApp

Credit Suisse puts probability of QE at 80%, 20% nothing will be done.

80% split as follows

60% - extension of TWIST (its balance sheet neutral, hence not likely to face too much opposition) - prob rally to 1.275 and fade to parity
15% - further QE2 (mortgage backed paper to be purchased too) - prob higher rally to 1.29 and fade to parity
5% - something else (likely language becoming more tough) - fade from current levels

20% - they do nothing - strong sell

I'm shorting.
Midas

credit suisse.........who's credit suise.....I think Fed will do nothing at this time

Hi!
Again, a couple of regards from the German forum!
EUR / USD with volume profile (Price action).
Great conversation in your forum - great!
Happy trading ...

Originally Posted by raghu1

As per setup it may be the scene next (USDCHF)

Interesting chart, if FOMC fails to give the market QE, dollar could make a resurgence. I believe that smart money creates footprints in the sand in the form of price action, so dollar looks like it could rebound as indicated in your chart. Thanks for sharing it!

Originally Posted by root-minus

this is reaching for 1.26570, holding it

awful


bailled -50


ridiculous

Originally Posted by root-minus

awful


bailled -50


ridiculous

Hey root-minus! I am sorry about your loss.

What is worse having the wrong direction and taking a loss or getting out early and missing out on pips?

Originally Posted by NoGrn4grnhorn

credit suisse.........who's credit suise.....I think Fed will do nothing at this time

I agree with you...in case you weren't being sarcastic, CS is one of the biggest investment banks in the world.

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Hey root-minus! I am sorry about your loss.

What is worse having the wrong direction and taking a loss or getting out early and missing out on pips?

Thanks Gregory, we've all been there l suppose - just not trading what l see today, a little off colour