Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

Video should be working now http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/eur-u...ml#post1203815

Originally Posted by rcopadilla

The 5min chart shows the prior reversals at the BB300 bands (corresponding to the 15min BB20 bands) and the corresponding crossovers/crossunders of the CCI and Slow Stochastics.
The current situation shows the CCI and SSD doing their crossovers but no tagging of the Bollinger bands yet. This could mean the the upcycle that is suppose to reverse to a down cycle is doing an extension which is more of a trending behavior.

The 5min down cycle finally happened and now the reversal to the up cycle is taking place.

Originally Posted by rcopadilla

Reversals still tend to occur at the Bollinger bands (even with the spikers) and are usually concurrent with the CCI crossovers/crossunders.

The BB20 are narrowing; expect a bigger than normal move.
The CCI crossovers at the upside reversals are occurring at higher and higher levels.
The Slow Stocastics lows are also at higher and higher levels.

Odds favor the bigger move to be to the upside.
Keep in mind that there is typically a countermove prior to the real move. The countermove can be used to make a nice entry for the real move trade.

Before a big move the prior or counter move is often big enough to take out most of our stops so in this case a big move up could see 1.2560 (this weeks low) or lower before a huge jump. If you stick to the rule Sell Resistance and Buy Support, given that the bottom of the range is 1.2540 and the top is 1.2746 you could get a double whammy here with some luck. If it plays out as suggested don't go long to soon after the fall it may be a reversal so give it chance to breakout to the upside there should be plenty of upside to play with, stops should be just below 1.2540, if you trade the downside, just above 1.2746 should the stop. I don't know any more than anybody else but I will try to trade this if I see the bounce's because this fits with my strategy. If we breakout 1.2746 on the H4 chart first I need to reconsider and I need to see 1.2746 hit to trigger the scenario at least for the short. Just to be clear I'm not predicting this will happen just stating my plan if it does happen. Be lucky and take care.

When the price action first tagged the upper BB20 band on the daily chart, the normal behavior is for a retracement to occur especially since the intraday charts were also overbought. But the retracement was limited to only 1 bar. The price action is traveling along the upper band. The trend is up.
The chart shows probable upside targets.
The core indicators are not yet overbought.
The CCI has not crossover its signal line or under the 100 level.
The MACD has not yet reached the minimum zero llne.
The Stochastic has not reached the 80 level.
The RSI has not reached the 70 level.
When the overbought levels have been achieved, the probability for a trend change increases. Until then, the less risky trade is to Buy the dips.
.

Originally Posted by Foxy1

Before a big move the prior or counter move is often big enough to take out most of our stops so in this case a big move up could see 1.2560 (this weeks low) or lower before a huge jump. If you stick to the rule Sell Resistance and Buy Support, given that the bottom of the range is 1.2540 and the top is 1.2746 you could get a double whammy here with some luck. If it plays out as suggested don't go long to soon after the fall it may be a reversal so give it chance to breakout to the upside there should be plenty of upside to play with, stops should be just below 1.2540, if you trade the downside, just above 1.2746 should the stop. I don't know any more than anybody else but I will try to trade this if I see the bounce's because this fits with my strategy. If we breakout 1.2746 on the H4 chart first I need to reconsider and I need to see 1.2746 hit to trigger the scenario at least for the short. Just to be clear I'm not predicting this will happen just stating my plan if it does happen. Be lucky and take care.

Thanks for describing the reasons behind your strategy. That is what helps everyone get better. There tends to be way too much noise on the boards but that is to be expected on a public board.

The reversal on the weekly chart occur at the confluence of the lower BB20, BB60 and BB100. I was expecting the lower BB300 to get tagged as well but that confluence proved to be just too much support to allow any lower price action.

The previous reversals at the Bollinger 20 lower band had the price action reaching the nominal BB20 midline as a minimum target. Currently the midline is around 1.30 and dropping.

Originally Posted by rcopadilla

The 5min down cycle finally happened and now the reversal to the up cycle is taking place.

Another 5min down cycle has started (sooner than expected).
A quick look at the 15min chart shows that it is still in its down cycle.

Some Times it Pays to keep it stupid simple (Kiss) by the way great 70's band! but in this case simple stops is king. (ssik) wow thats is sick.....lol.......If you are long keep this in mine

Originally Posted by rcopadilla

Another 5min down cycle has started (sooner than expected).
A quick look at the 15min chart shows that it is still in its down cycle.

Thank you for your posts. your always on top of the Euro moves.

Originally Posted by Luxuriant

Thank you for your posts. your always on top of the Euro moves.

I've been short for a while now. Let it ride! Down the hill we go!

bought at 1.26704


tg 1.26900


manual

Originally Posted by EuroTraderApp

It is frustrating. But as long as I'm making money, I guess I have to take the bitter pills (i.e the rallys).

I share your thinking. I could hold onto an entry position for weeks and ride the wave through but I must have deep pocket for margin call. Somehow I still make money in the end if the direction I forecast is the right one.

Originally Posted by root-minus

bought at 1.26704


tg 1.26900


manual

out at entry, don't like this flag, could gain momentum but playing it safe

Long to 1.2727

Hey root 1 min still has a little down juice left expect some sideways movement before moving north

Originally Posted by root-minus

out at entry, don't like this flag, could gain momentum but playing it safe