Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

what is the prediction?

Originally Posted by msufaisal

Lets see how market acts this week ... as prediction or beyond prediction!!!

I see a resistance area right where we are created by the Feb 2009, Aug 2010 and Jan 2012 lows, next resistance and by my opinion very strong one is in the area of 1.2880-1.2900, TL dating from June 201o and Sep 2011 coincide, also Fib. levels and 90 MA will stay on the way.

Originally Posted by NHAppraiser

I have no technicals to tell me this but I see the E/U jumping up to around 2.79+-

I hope you meant "1.279"; if it jumps to 2.79 I am so screwed...

Originally Posted by stryker

The point been you are either a fundamental trader or a technical trade.. A very few and likely to be good in both..

I would like to be good at both, but I just don't "feel the Force".

Originally Posted by stryker

A technical trader most likely would be on a shorter term frame as compare to a fundamental trader..

Yes. If I'd just left shorts in from 1.31 and not looked at any charts or ever tried short-term in-and-outs, I'd be fine.

Originally Posted by stryker

A true understanding of a technical tool is to learn it start applying and testing the trade result on a demo. Once you know you have a grip on it, you know u can use that to real trades..

I just haven't found playing with the demo to be educational, in the sense of teaching my subconscious mind how to react. As soon as I touch real money (even money I consciously tell myself "I don't care about losing") the whole psychology changes, and I start exhibiting all the syndromes of gambler's disease.

Originally Posted by stryker

I have self learn the most simplest of tool that like a kindergarten children are taught the very basic, the TL analysis is exactly the same for anyone coming into the tech play..

And I have very much appreciated the simplicity of your charts, which I understand more readily than many other posters' (although I have gotten something out of a lot of others too). But I need to learn to infer trend lines myself, not rely on you or anyone else, and that I am still very bad at (particularly at understanding when a trend will stop being a trend and sharply reverse: when I expect a reversal, I am almost always wrong, and when I expect a trend to continue, it is often done).

Originally Posted by EuroTraderApp

It's interesting, the periphery consider pissing Germany off as a "victory".

Germany did kick Greece's butt, then lost to Italy: interesting the parallel between the soccer pitch and the summit. The only thing keeping Pasok from pulling the plug on the Greek government is that Venizelos needs time to reposition himself as totally-not-to-blame-here.

Originally Posted by EuroTraderApp

If I were Germany, I would simply leave the Euro.

What do you want to bet, that if Greece exits, traders holding long-euro will find themselves holding a bunch of long-drachma they didn't order, while if Germany exits, you won't get any long-deutschmark?

Originally Posted by EuroTraderApp

[Germany is] driving growth in the Eurozone.

Uh, no: they haven't been driving growth for anyone except themselves, and not even that anymore.

Originally Posted by EuroTraderApp

1.3? And just out of interest - what catalysts in your opinion get us there? I ask because the Eurozone needs growth and at 1.30, you can't get it. But, almost 80% of techies in this thread seem to be prophesying 1.30 for over 2 months now so I'd love to get a bit more color on the "why".

I think it is basically a tendency, built in to techie analysis, to see everything as going in cycles and constantly returning to where it used to be. But GBP/USD is never going back to its historic $4.97 or $2.80 levels (at least, the chance is very small); USD/JPY will not see 500 or 360 again (that chance we can call zero). I wouldn't call the chance of EUR/USD exceeding 1.3 again "zero" but it would mean that the euro did not have much longer to live.

Originally Posted by rcopadilla

There are a lot of similarities between the June 2010 bottom and the current bottom that occurred in May. There is a significant higher probability of tagging the weekly BB20 midline (~1.30) versus the probability of making another major low before tagging the midline. Go with the higher probability scenario. It has been about 5 weeks since the bottom. The midline tag is expected to occur this week and/or next week.
To setup the weekly upmove, a little more retracement should happen to get things back out of being overbought from Friday's rally. A possible support level for the retracement is the 1.2570 area where the last leg of the rally started...

So for now, expect the retracement to finish to setup the next up move.

Thank you. This is the kind of specificity I was hoping for.

Originally Posted by root-minus

what surprises me the most is those fundie dudes/gals base their overall plan on fundie stuff released by those who actually run the markets - you honestly believe they want to give you the correct information for you to benefit from the market movements?

I don't know which "fundie dudes/gals" you are talking about, but I have been basing myself strictly on what is very public and impossible to conceal: the euro is so overvalued that it is profitable even for bit players (like some friends of mine) to "arbitrage" against it just by flying over the ocean with boxes of stuff and making plenty of profit to more than cover the plane ticket (a decent living, plus a free vacation at the same time); the ranks of the unemployed are growing so rapidly that their anger threatens the political stability, etc. As for "projections" by the big boys that, sure sure, the Spanish economy will be back to growth again next year, etc. etc. I do remember the source and discount the "info" accordingly.

Originally Posted by root-minus

IT'S PRICED IN ALREADY etc

No. It just isn't. This is what baffles me. What appears to be "priced in" is some huge boom in Europe that I do not believe in.

Originally Posted by SKG2592

I think in your frustration of keeping losing you have not really read and understand the messages of many techies here. They all said that it would take a long time to learn and practise. I agree 100% too. You started 'trading' or 'playing' with some play money only in March. Not only is that a very very short period of time for you to come to a conclusion, but you also flipped from one technique to another in a short month! Do you see, that's exactly the problem.

I couldn't keep throwing away $500 a day, which sticking to my first attempts to "read and understand" the tech would have meant. I can't keep throwing away $100 a day, for years, either. I do need to get to break-even soon, or I just have to hang this up.

Originally Posted by SKG2592

In a few months of your time here, what you have done, as I flipped through most of your posts, is mostly moaning about why price didn't respect your view, and 'technies' didn't make sense. What you have NOT done is to learn anything tehnical in-depth and practise it on demo first for a few month, making it consistently profitable on demo before you trade real money. In short, you're trading in a way that's not too differnet from fumbling in the dark.

I'm +85% on the demo. It's when I make it real that I start fumbling in the dark.

Originally Posted by SKG2592

It took me a bit over 2 years to finally found what I like and what could give me confidence. That is a period of time significantly shorter than what most would tell you how long it would take to get you profitable.

I probably shouldn't have started this at all. The chance of my surviving years of this is slim. But I have never been one to give up easily.

Originally Posted by SKG2592

But you really have not learnt much in your few months here. And an important reason of that is you're unwilling to learn, clutching to your belief that your fair value calculation should dictate the price.

I said back in March that I cannot predict that the euro will go below 1.225, only that either it will go down, or it will die: because every 100 pips above the Line of Death translates into about -1% GDP for the weakest economies like Greece, about -0.5% for somewhat less weak countries like Spain or Italy, and eventually negative growth for Germany too. And don't try to tell me I was wrong about that, because I haven't been.

Originally Posted by jogold18

robert,

every system you use has a weakness and has a strength. from time to time, i see you post diff charts with diff indicators.
u still not sure what works for you?

Yeah, I'm sure: nothing works (sobs, curls into ball, nurses self-pity; OK, I'm over it).

Originally Posted by jogold18

im not right all the time, especially at turning points like we had this spike up. NOTHING told me we where going to turn.

Glad I'm not the only one who was taken aback.

Originally Posted by jogold18

heck the 34MA i did not even find on my own. i got from someone else.

but what you see below is what i love and price on all TF respects the "34MA" more then it breaks passed it. and when it does, i have the 200MA to remind me if we are going up or down just so i stick to the "TREND" but its not enough to have what i have.

A buddy commended 377MA (no idea why he likes "377"; sounds as arbitrary as your "34" but whatever works) as a long-term trend line (it's the lavender line on my euro chart; it had come down to "kiss" the price when I re-entered short thinking it would bounce off down, but then came the up-spike, so high above the lavender line I was sure of a gap-down this weekend, which seems to have been a badly wrong guess). I'll try adding a "34" (I need a nifty new color: or need to delete all the other lines from my chart, since they have "betrayed" me so badly).

Originally Posted by jogold18

why the heck are we not falling like its supposed to. the fact that it was not falling made me think, ok we might get a break up, really not what i was expecting. but yet i had a feel that it could very well do that. but my system on a shorter term told me to short, so i shorted. i did not listen to my feeling of gut that price would break up.

My gut always keeps telling me "TODAY is the day the goddamned euro finally crashes through the floor." At some point maybe my gut will become more attuned to the messy reality.

Originally Posted by SKG2592

People kept saying that they didn't understand what in the charts said it was going up. Please do spend a lot of time staring at charts understanding how price moves. It would help too if you have a slightly photographic memory and so what's seen before can stay in your mind better.

Photographic memory, I got: if I know what I am looking at.

Originally Posted by SKG2592

Last week price had been fluctuating in a tight range, slightly dripping down but not really going. It is not really a clean wedge shape but more or less a tight range wedging down. Then a spike higher then lower in a straightline. This is almost a sure sign of a final exhaustion drop, for the shorts to exit and longs to get in at a better price. Then price actually stayed rather nicely at the lower end of the range for a period of time for anyone to get in and get out.

Thank you. I see your picture.

Originally Posted by pkimnyc

1. price not retracing or pull back doesn't necessarily mean price isn't going any further.

Exactly. I wanted a retrace so I could short again from a higher price. I didn't get it, but still shorted again in case it had more drop to give. But because there hadn't been a retrace, I didn't trust it and kept stop-loss tight, so the upspike didn't hurt me as badly as it could have.

Originally Posted by pkimnyc

2. opening a position at the friday close is the worst time possible you can place a trade.

Given your approach, of course you see it so. But for me, guessing the direction of weekend gaps or sharp reactions to news events have been the only occasions when I make large wins. FOMC and NFP have been very good to me, for example: last time after FOMC, when Bernanke came out for a press conference, Alejandro said "I'm sure not going to be in the market while Ben is speaking"; of course, I was shorting like mad, and made a pile (a couple of his sentences turned into blue bars, but most of them were red!)

The one thing I can post that people don't get annoyed with is The News: SC members met in Geneva and came out with a Syria plan, for a national unity government composed of "mutually agreeable" members of the opposition and the current regime, to supervise new elections with UN help. US wanted it explicit that Assad could not be included but Russia nixed that: no matter, the opposition says they will work with no-one who has "blood on their hands" (excludes not just Assad, but just about anybody from the current regime), and there is equally little willingness on the other side, so this plan is going exactly nowhere. But: it does indicate that Russia is facing the reality that this is getting to the end game (rebel attacks on the state TV tower, and the secret police HQ, were repulsed but showed greater rebel strength within Damascus than anybody had thought). Russia wanted Iran invited to Geneva, as Syria's last friend, but the US nixed that. Iran is getting more petulant in the ongoing nuke talks (now shifted from Moscow back to Istanbul), leaking details about their willingness to comply with everything demanded of them, provided the sanctions are lifted first (no freaking way). EU sanctions are in place as of today: the shutoff of oil sales to Europe is not so significant (since they had already stopped) as the end of insurance by European firms for shipments elsewhere (South Korea for example is exempt from the purchasing ban, but cannot arrange coverage so it doesn't matter). Iran demanded large price increases from China, its last remaining large customer; China angrily responded by cancelling 25% of its purchase orders.

Long-term upshot: Iran is going to have to capitulate. Short-term upshot: since "stubbornness" is one thing Iran has no shortage of, Oil will continue heading up for a while. This is bad news for the US economy (and Obama's campaign) if it starts being reflected at the gas pump. It is worse for the EU: European trade balance typically shows a seasonal rhythm of large deficits in the high-fuel-consumption months turning into surpluses in the summer, but the surplus lately is meager and could be tipped into a deficit for the summer months (for the first time in years) if oil spikes back to where it was a few months ago.

Prediction is almost similar as you said!!!
We have some upcoming events that may drive us there then back to south again. Just little bit time we need, I guess.

In near term, if the price does not make a new high and ends up as a double top, we might see retreat towards supply levels of 1.2590-1.26. RSI, MACD and other indicators shows weakening of the force and momentum, bulls be careful...

Originally Posted by msufaisal

Prediction is almost similar as you said!!!
We have some upcoming events that may drive us there then back to south again. Just little bit time we need, I guess.

This point before first significant rentracement...We'll see

Of the 25 times since October 2004 when - as last week - EUR/USD has rallied on a Friday by 1% or more, only 2 finished the Monday that followed more than 45 pips above the open

EUR/USD ended Friday at 1.2670, up 2.40 cents (1.9%) on the day, and showing a net weekly gain of 1.25 cents (1.0%)

It was the biggest daily rally since EUR/USD gained 3.40 cents (2.5%) on Thursday 27th October 2011, 35 weeks earlier

EUR/USD closed June showing a net gain of 3.05 cents (2.5%): EUR/USD had dropped 9.95 cents (7.4%) between March and May

Above 1.2725/45, look for resistance on Monday at 1.2780/90 and 1.2820: Support is expected at 1.2590/1.2610 and 1.2545/60

The market has memory, watch for it, study it and trade it

Originally Posted by MAXJOY

In near term, if the price does not make a new high and ends up as a double top, we might see retreat towards supply levels of 1.2590-1.26. RSI, MACD and other indicators shows weakening of the force and momentum, bulls be careful...

Yes, you are right. We'll wait to see the rally where it ends and reverse.

Who are the Players in the Market?

I have come to realise that there are just too many players in the fx market. Besides individuals and institutions, there are the other big sharks, mafias, money launderers whose wealth could even be more than institutions. I think these are the people who can corner the market and make swings favorable to them. My six cents worth.

Originally Posted by ericwong

Who are the Players in the Market?

I have come to realise that there are just too many players in the fx market. Besides individuals and institutions, there are the other big sharks, mafias, money launderers whose wealth could even be more than institutions. I think these are the people who can corner the market and make swings favorable to them. My six cents worth.

banks, government. hedge funds institutions are also victims as far as i understand.

Hi Eric, I would not bother with such thoughts, it does not matter, sudden and unexpected moves happen but not that often.
The reason for all that chatter during the weekend was that many traders were Bear Biased without any solid reasons and as you know it is dangerous to get caught with a Friday trade. There was obvious diversion, we talked about it and still so many traders were caught off guard- many of them even without sound Stop losses positioned, that's why all the anger and frustration. I was also long but with a tight stop, taken by the bear trap swing...well, always better with a stop than without...carry on...
So I am a newbie here, but as I see there are some reasonable and wise traders who post opinions based on research and an reasons which they explain no matter right or wrong...there are some that just post predictions without any explanation on what grounds, no charts, no reasons...pls dont do that ppl!
Good trades this week to all techs and fundies...and me hihihihi

Originally Posted by ericwong

Who are the Players in the Market?

I have come to realise that there are just too many players in the fx market. Besides individuals and institutions, there are the other big sharks, mafias, money launderers whose wealth could even be more than institutions. I think these are the people who can corner the market and make swings favorable to them. My six cents worth.

With little or no correction on Friday I wonder should I short this high open ? Anybody short yet ?

Originally Posted by MAXJOY

Hi Eric, I would not bother with such thoughts, it does not matter, sudden and unexpected moves happen but not that often.
The reason for all that chatter during the weekend was that many traders were Bear Biased without any solid reasons and as you know it is dangerous to get caught with a Friday trade. There was obvious diversion, we talked about it and still so many traders were caught off guard- many of them even without sound Stop losses positioned, that's why all the anger and frustration. I was also long but with a tight stop, taken by the bear trap swing...well, always better with a stop than without...carry on...
So I am a newbie here, but as I see there are some reasonable and wise traders who post opinions based on research and an reasons which they explain no matter right or wrong...
Goo trades this week to all techs and fundies...and me hihihihi

dear max,

it's important to understand who the players are in the market. in a battle, you will do everything in your power to know about your enemy, right?

I would love to short but common sense says - keep steady, so will wait for confirmation and follow trough...

Originally Posted by Foxy1

With little or no correction on Friday I wonder should I short this high open ? Anybody short yet ?

That is a simple answer, we all know who are the players...banging your head who caused that move, was it some big whale, or a bank or hedge fund... pointless, follow the charts and go with the flow, soon your balance will be healthy again and dont forget folks - having a MM is crucial, to define risk means to know where to stop and where to get out!
This should not be a gambling...there are Casinos for this purpose

Originally Posted by pkimnyc

dear max,

it's important to understand who the players are in the market. in a battle, you will do everything in your power to know about your enemy, right?

Originally Posted by MAXJOY

Hi Eric, I would not bother with such thoughts, it does not matter, sudden and unexpected moves happen but not that often.
The reason for all that chatter during the weekend was that many traders were Bear Biased without any solid reasons and as you know it is dangerous to get caught with a Friday trade. There was obvious diversion, we talked about it and still so many traders were caught off guard- many of them even without sound Stop losses positioned, that's why all the anger and frustration. I was also long but with a tight stop, taken by the bear trap swing...well, always better with a stop than without...carry on...
So I am a newbie here, but as I see there are some reasonable and wise traders who post opinions based on research and an reasons which they explain no matter right or wrong...there are some that just post predictions without any explanation on what grounds, no charts, no reasons...pls dont do that ppl!
Good trades this week to all techs and fundies...and me hihihihi

Hi Maxjoy - Thanks for enlightening, I have no qualms losing money if my fundamental analysis is wrong. I guess most of the players and forumers are honest and upright people just wanting to trade professionally. However, my thinking faculty tells me that the contrary happens against the fundamentals in a very un-usual way and am puzzled. Although techies say they can already read from the charts to foretell what could happen, it is the action of these other players in the market that create the volume and momentum, thus representing on the charts. So I am telling myself that I am a player in an arena where many unknown characters, and some unscrupulous players.