Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

Below charts represent major S/R levels dated years back, so far the bulls run it up to the 1.2625 which has become a Res. We could be on the verge of the revers of the Bull correction and looking down for the next major levels - 1.20, 1,18 and I Would love to see 1.10...
Pls trow any suggestions and your view on this matter.
Thanks!
MAXJOY

ECB cuts rates by 0.25%, lowers deposit rate to 0%.

Highly likely, this is already now priced into equity, fixed-income and largely, currency markets. Draghi is smug and instills confidence in market participants at press conferences. Net-net, given the sharp drop in the common currency today, I would expect the pair to see a small bounce (at best) - perhaps to 1.255-1.26 levels at which point I would again start adding to short positions.

There will be talk about auxiliary monetary tools that are at the disposal of the ECB - one of these is another potential LTRO. This is unlikely to commence any time soon.

There is a small tail-risk of the ECB doing nothing tomorrow. Note: Lagarde has supported this and has gone on to say that SMPs would be a more "judicious" step (when compared to rate cuts) as the impact of the latter might be too accommodative for Germany.

All in all - a solid environment for bears. Important thing to remember: the only central bank that is committed to propping up the Euro is actually a non-European member - i.e the SNB of Switzerland. Other central banks including the ECB are agnostic on where the currency heads and in general, a lower rate is better for Eurozone growth.
Midas

Originally Posted by EuroTraderApp

ECB cuts rates by 0.25%, lowers deposit rate to 0%.

Highly likely, this is already now priced into equity, fixed-income and largely, currency markets. Draghi is smug and instills confidence in market participants at press conferences. Net-net, given the sharp drop in the common currency today, I would expect the pair to see a small bounce (at best) - perhaps to 1.255-1.26 levels at which point I would again start adding to short positions.

There will be talk about auxiliary monetary tools that are at the disposal of the ECB - one of these is another potential LTRO. This is unlikely to commence any time soon.

There is a small tail-risk of the ECB doing nothing tomorrow. Note: Lagarde has supported this and has gone on to say that SMPs would be a more "judicious" step (when compared to rate cuts) as the impact of the latter might be too accommodative for Germany.

All in all - a solid environment for bears. Important thing to remember: the only central bank that is committed to propping up the Euro is actually a non-European member - i.e the SNB of Switzerland. Other central banks including the ECB are agnostic on where the currency heads and in general, a lower rate is better for Eurozone growth.
Midas

Just to put your comments and views in perspective: would you mind divulging what's your trade size and/or leverage? And what's your total short size so far? Not meant to probe into something too personal but this matters a lot to any casual or passing readers -- a trader who keeps shorting and adding shorts at at least a few standard lots per click (100,000 as 1 lot, or £/$10 per pip so to speak) or even bigger size is vastly different in the widest possible sense from one who trades a mini lot ($1/£1 per pip) or even micro lot.

Originally Posted by DolceVista

Just to put your comments and views in perspective: would you mind divulging what's your trade size and/or leverage? And what's your total short size so far? Not meant to probe into something too personal but this matters a lot to any casual or passing readers -- a trader who keeps shorting and adding shorts at at least a few standard lots per click (100,000 as 1 lot, or £/$10 per pip so to speak) or even bigger size is vastly different in the widest possible sense from one who trades a mini lot ($1/£1 per pip) or even micro lot.

So posters who report news and give their opinion/outlook is suppose to fulfill your so called perspective? I find your post very intrusive and none of your business. You take what is posted and make up your own mind to what to do despite what others may do or say.

Originally Posted by SharonSS

So posters who report news and give their opinion/outlook is suppose to fulfill your so called perspective? I find your post very intrusive and none of your business. You take what is posted and make up your own mind to what to do despite what others may do or say.

Well, unless that use of terms is not in American English, otherwise you have misread/misunderstood the sentence. It's not to fulfill whoever's perspective, but to put things in context. Someone who trades seriously and trades serious money would evaluate their positions and views a lot more differently from someone who trades play money, and so of their views. Is it that difficult to imagine? There are plenty of other quality and less biased source of news out there if you want news.

Didn't Clive mention some time ago that he would like Greg to have a poll to find out how many traders here are trading proper size and how many are trading play money? He was asked to think up the question for the poll by Greg but the issue just quietly disappeared. Perhaps obviously for sensitive people or the easily offended like you.

And by the way, what questions I would like to ask or query is none of your business either. I found your post very intrusive too. Are you a policewoman on the forum censoring what questions can or cannot be asked?

Whether the original poster answers or not is of his own choice and can be telling. None of your business either. Mind your own business!

Originally Posted by EuroTraderApp

ECB cuts rates by 0.25%, lowers deposit rate to 0%.

Highly likely, this is already now priced into equity, fixed-income and largely, currency markets. Draghi is smug and instills confidence in market participants at press conferences. Net-net, given the sharp drop in the common currency today, I would expect the pair to see a small bounce (at best) - perhaps to 1.255-1.26 levels at which point I would again start adding to short positions.

There will be talk about auxiliary monetary tools that are at the disposal of the ECB - one of these is another potential LTRO. This is unlikely to commence any time soon.

There is a small tail-risk of the ECB doing nothing tomorrow. Note: Lagarde has supported this and has gone on to say that SMPs would be a more "judicious" step (when compared to rate cuts) as the impact of the latter might be too accommodative for Germany.

All in all - a solid environment for bears. Important thing to remember: the only central bank that is committed to propping up the Euro is actually a non-European member - i.e the SNB of Switzerland. Other central banks including the ECB are agnostic on where the currency heads and in general, a lower rate is better for Eurozone growth.
Midas

I think they will cut rates but I don't think it is priced in. THe bias will perhaps be more important. Would this be the beginning of a series of rate cuts? If so the euro could drop much lower. Once the meeting is over attention will immediately turn to the NFP and next week we will have a deluge of second quarter earnings reports. Volatility is low and if we see some big bellwether companies report lowered expectations the markets could sell off

Entry - market
SL- 1.2511
SP - 1.2560
Divergence
For those interested - I'm trading real account, mini lots with add ons to lot size positions.
Tight MM

first tg 1.25350


manual stop

Dude, we are synchronized

Originally Posted by root-minus

first tg 1.25350


manual stop

Originally Posted by MAXJOY

Dude, we are synchronized

mostly likely because we read price and trade price

Originally Posted by root-minus

first tg 1.25350


manual stop

tg achieved

secured

Yep, me too, so tired, going to bed as here is almost 4 am... will see if it reaches my second tgt at .60
Good night/trade!

Originally Posted by root-minus

tg achieved

secured

Originally Posted by MAXJOY

Yep, me too, so tired, going to bed as here is almost 4 am... will see if it reaches my second tgt at .60
Good night/trade!

GN MAXJOY

Originally Posted by DolceVista

Well, unless that use of terms is not in American English, otherwise you have misread/misunderstood the sentence. It's not to fulfill whoever's perspective, but to put things in context. Someone who trades seriously and trades serious money would evaluate their positions and views a lot more differently from someone who trades play money, and so of their views. Is it that difficult to imagine? There are plenty of other quality and less biased source of news out there if you want news.

Didn't Clive mention some time ago that he would like Greg to have a poll to find out how many traders here are trading proper size and how many are trading play money? He was asked to think up the question for the poll by Greg but the issue just quietly disappeared. Perhaps obviously for sensitive people or the easily offended like you.

And by the way, what questions I would like to ask or query is none of your business either. I found your post very intrusive too. Are you a policewoman on the forum censoring what questions can or cannot be asked?

Whether the original poster answers or not is of his own choice and can be telling. None of your business either. Mind your own business!

Yes, it is my business. Those posters need to realize everyone does not have your viewpoint just as you don't have mine. I and I'm sure others enjoy their input and they shouldn't have to be submitted to intimidation tactics that either they submit to your demands or that in itself "can be telling" as you state.

Originally Posted by Mary R

I think they will cut rates but I don't think it is priced in. THe bias will perhaps be more important. Would this be the beginning of a series of rate cuts? If so the euro could drop much lower. Once the meeting is over attention will immediately turn to the NFP and next week we will have a deluge of second quarter earnings reports. Volatility is low and if we see some big bellwether companies report lowered expectations the markets could sell off

For me, I'm being extremely cautious. Call me paranoid, but after what happened with that 100 pip jump the other day....

Problem is the big boys get the news before us and we're sitting here wondering what happened. Some traders have shown charts showing that it shouldn't have been a surprise, but mine didn't. Fortunately, I wasn't caught.