Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

Originally Posted by b3nni

The last count with (iv) @ 1,4910 showed i at 1,47 = 215 pips
Correction to 1,4807 = ii
Then start of iii which we now know ended at 1,4575 so roughly 230 pips...so i = iii at least iii is not the usual longest wave thus it must be iv


so from 1 to 3 = 0,382 and 5 = 0,681 making that equation:
1,4908 - 1,4570 = 338 pips

This means 5 would then be ......602 pips !
If 1,4682 = top then 1,4682 - 602 pips = 1,4080

Thats the reason i am having a problem with this count...
1,40 yes but not in a couple of days imo ....we will see how far the last move retraces

Euh, no, I would have a problem with that as well.
wave 3 = 161.8% of wave 1. Wave 1 = wave 5.

So wave 3=130x1.62=210
130+210+130=470 pips from 1.49. 4900-470= 4430.
That is better right?

Anyway, have a look at oil. Oil and interest rates move the dollar, everything else is noise.

Originally Posted by Salsaprince

I hear ya! Holding to shorts at 4635, 4650 and 4665 atm, SL 4690. Made some silly hedging, but luckily i have Dennisc to kick me in the balls and remember me to stick with the plan

Below 4640 although, andd i would be in profit again..

/Salsa

Yay!!

SL lowered to 4645.. First short target 4582. Hopefully...

/Salsa

It sems no pattern or wavecounting or fibs are working today its just trading tick for tick with oil......just my opinion......

pippin u r suggesting that the recent pull back was wave iv of 5 and youthink 4380 is the target.....in that case wave v of 5 will be the largest omong all 3 waves.....is this ok....

FOMC minutes due in 50 mins. Could turn to be bearish for USD and see 1.4680 testing again?

I'm short 4657 but can't decide to remove my position b4 the minutes?

Not the best of days, had a EURJPY long at 160.10 only to be stopped out by some big JPY buyers just b4 EURJPY shot up 120 pips without me

What do you think about the minutes?

GL

Originally Posted by pubber

FOMC minutes due in 50 mins. Could turn to be bearish for USD and see 1.4680 testing again?

I'm short 4657 but can't decide to remove my position b4 the minutes?

Not the best of days, had a EURJPY long at 160.10 only to be stopped out by some big JPY buyers just b4 EURJPY shot up 120 pips without me

What do you think about the minutes?

GL

Blablabla... nothing about cuts.. blabla... still concerned about growth, but pressure is a bit off... blabla...

And then i believe we might see a less dovish bias than earlier, so USD bullish..

/Salsa

so you think that EUR/USD will bearish or bullish?

if USD gets stronger -> EUR/USD will get down, am I right?

Originally Posted by pivot_call

It sems no pattern or wavecounting or fibs are working today its just trading tick for tick with oil......just my opinion......

pippin u r suggesting that the recent pull back was wave iv of 5 and youthink 4380 is the target.....in that case wave v of 5 will be the largest omong all 3 waves.....is this ok....

It could happen, like in expanding symmetricals that wave 5 is longer than wave 3, however that is usally not the case and in this instance it is not the case either IMHO.
4380 is the target that some analysts have mentioned. My target is at 4400-4430 area. This is where the 1st TL support is, 4380 is the extention of that. However, how longer it takes for wave 5 to hit, the more we move up the TL and then the target changes as well.

Edit: And oh btw, wave 3 has not ended yet. We are in iv of 3. we still get a wave v to end 3. Then a wave 4 and finally the run to 4400 area.

Fed Minutes: Next Move In Rates Seen Higher, Though Timing Uncertain.

What next?

Originally Posted by Ilovepippin

Euh, no, I would have a problem with that as well.
wave 3 = 161.8% of wave 1. Wave 1 = wave 5.

So wave 3=130x1.62=210
130+210+130=470 pips from 1.49. 4900-470= 4430.
That is better right?

Anyway, have a look at oil. Oil and interest rates move the dollar, everything else is noise.

Pippin !



Don't get you: **wave 3 = 161.8% of wave 1. Wave 1 = wave 5. **
thats not always the case- Where do you see i has 130 pips?

i = from 1,4905 to 1,4695 = 210 pips same as iii -

Considering i and iii is not extended- which it isn't as i = 210 pips, nearly ident to iii then wave v is .618 of the whole move- thus the above calculation .

See Prechter Jr

yes, sorry b3nni. I am at work and quickly rushed my post.
210 pips is correct. Target could be anywhere between 4309 and 4380.
But I am out at 4400. It happens too often that I miss my target by a pip or so.

So for clarity: we are in wave (iv) of 3 of 5, if that makes any sense.

Originally Posted by Ilovepippin

yes, sorry b3nni. I am at work and quickly rushed my post.
210 pips is correct. Target could be anywhere between 4309 and 4380.
But I am out at 4400. It happens too often that I miss my target by a pip or so.

So for clarity: we are in wave (iv) of 3 of 5, if that makes any sense.

Sure Pippin, always at work too

All i say is that i of 3 of 5 as well as iii of 3 of 5 have the same lenghts- nearly at least no extended iii thus v will (or can?) be extended and if v is extended then it is usually the 0,618 of 1 whereas i and iii together so the whole movement to the start of iv is just 0,382 and that leads to the target i wrote before which indeed is just below 1,41 ( considering that the top of iv of 3 of 5 was near 1,4680)

Thats the reason i favour that the US$ top / euro bottom is in

see the attach in the last post
ps: pretty new to EW too i am sure cmellon could help here

cheers
b3

thanks for the explanantion. I am very new to learning EW (less than a month being introduced to the concept). The fractals can be very confusing indeed.....

I agree with your target.... if we assume wave 5=wave 1 which was ~ 515 pips and 1.49 was the start of wave 5 so it makes perfect sense to have ~ 1.44 as the approximate target.

Originally Posted by Ilovepippin

It could happen, like in expanding symmetricals that wave 5 is longer than wave 3, however that is usally not the case and in this instance it is not the case either IMHO.
4380 is the target that some analysts have mentioned. My target is at 4400-4430 area. This is where the 1st TL support is, 4380 is the extention of that. However, how longer it takes for wave 5 to hit, the more we move up the TL and then the target changes as well.

Edit: And oh btw, wave 3 has not ended yet. We are in iv of 3. we still get a wave v to end 3. Then a wave 4 and finally the run to 4400 area.

Originally Posted by smallcaps49

14074097 00733323 EUR/USD 400 B 1.45972 1.46256 113.6 1,136.00 0.00 8/26/2008 08:12 8/26/2008 08:56
14074234 00733323 EUR/USD 400 B 1.45964 1.46256 116.8 1,168.00 0.00 8/26/2008 08:17 8/26/2008 08:56
14073858 00733323 EUR/USD 400 B 1.45933 1.46256 129.2 1,292.00 0.00 8/26/2008 08:03 8/26/2008 08:56
14074341 00733323 EUR/USD 400 B 1.45947 1.46298 140.4 1,404.00 0.00 8/26/2008 08:22 8/26/2008 08:55
14073687 00733323 USD/CHF 400 S 1.10705 1.10305 160 1,450.52 0.00 8/26/2008 07:58 8/26/2008
I Just Love 5 13 62, Don't You??????????????

caps out...

Hey Caps...
If I read your post correctly you bought EUR USD at 8:03 8:12 8:17 and 8:22 and sold all of them at 8:56 ? I am taking a look at your method, and rite at 8:56, which is 12:56 GMT, the 13 line seems to be crossing the 62 line. Which is, if I read you correct, a bullish sign. So why would you sell right there?
Maybe I am using the wrong tool, since my chart (Saxobank) offers Dual Simple Moving Average and not SMA.....(is that the same..?)
Anyway. Congrats on your results! If you go on like this you will be done trading soon. And enjoy a private island somewhere.....

EUR USD bounced a bit more then I expected. Its GOOD that I had to leave. Put my trailing stop close to the market, and got my euro's back below 1,46. Had I been around I would have waited for 1,4640 or so...
Whats next? German figs were really bad, and I really thought EUR would fall of the chart towards 1,4500. So I was wrong.
Fed told us what the next move will be....but no reaction. Looking for clues, I see some divergence, oil at 116, gold at 130, and 2yr yield spread between EZ and US still pretty high at 165bp.
I take trades as they come, like today's short position after IFO. But somewhere someone is telling me EUR USD is a bit too low...
We'll see.
GREETZ

Originally Posted by Guilder

Hey Caps...
If I read your post correctly you bought EUR USD at 8:03 8:12 8:17 and 8:22 and sold all of them at 8:56 ? I am taking a look at your method, and rite at 8:56, which is 12:56 GMT, the 13 line seems to be crossing the 62 line. Which is, if I read you correct, a bullish sign. So why would you sell right there?
Maybe I am using the wrong tool, since my chart (Saxobank) offers Dual Simple Moving Average and not SMA.....(is that the same..?)
Anyway. Congrats on your results! If you go on like this you will be done trading soon. And enjoy a private island somewhere.....

EUR USD bounced a bit more then I expected. Its GOOD that I had to leave. Put my trailing stop close to the market, and got my euro's back below 1,46. Had I been around I would have waited for 1,4640 or so...
Whats next? German figs were really bad, and I really thought EUR would fall of the chart towards 1,4500. So I was wrong.
Fed told us what the next move will be....but no reaction. Looking for clues, I see some divergence, oil at 116, gold at 130, and 2yr yield spread between EZ and US still pretty high at 165bp.
I take trades as they come, like today's short position after IFO. But somewhere someone is telling me EUR USD is a bit too low...
We'll see.
GREETZ

Caps/ Guilder !


I checked the same entry and exits on 1/5/15/30/60 min charts referring to the explanation you gave and came to the same results as Guilder- use Saxo too but there is no difference to other smas on other platforms afaik

also i do see a little bit of sense on the 1min and 5 min but not on 15/30/60min that you said need to be in green as well for an entry (??)
so the reason for the entry is not really there per your former explanations - except you just trade one timeframe ie 1 min possibly 5 min( 62 was crossed at 1,4606) ...also I have no clue what gave the exit signal? Using that method you should have stayed even longer in the trades thus resulting way higher profits

The entry with 400 k withing 10 pips and exit all of them at nearly the same price is of course a strong hitter for the absolute profit number


cheers
b3

Originally Posted by b3nni

Caps/ Guilder !


I checked the same entry and exits on 1/5/15/30/60 min charts referring to the explanation you gave and came to the same results as Guilder- use Saxo too but there is no difference to other smas on other platforms afaik

cheers
b3

From what I understand of the 5-13-62 method is that the 5 needs to cross the 13. If it's up its bullish, and vice versa. Then you have to wait for the price retrace and to bounce off the 62sma. Then you buy/sell.

You can choose and timeframe, obviously 1, 5, 10 and 15 minutes give more trading opportunities.