Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

Originally Posted by meonia

Nice chart Stella.
I remember your call a few days ago.
My chart shows bottom of the descending wedge around 1.2725. Not sure if that'll happen today though. Expect to see a bit of a retrace today towards 1.2908 level, and then perhaps a retest on Monday. The Oracle (my gut) tells me that it will not hold and we'll see 1.20 in the coming weeks.

I am doubting that retest on Monday now, with this NY tech team putting out bullish reports like today. Someone is trying to prop up this pair for some reason. I don't know about 1.20 that soon, but it sure seems that many indications are pointing to new lows on the Euro this Spring and Summer.

Bryan

Originally Posted by lloydblankfein

Euro causes markets to act nothing but irrationally, they should scrap the currency , it has done nothing but damage to economies. However a rebound in u.s equities would cause investors to leverage more and there cause weakness in dollar, this is no dollar strength at 1.30 this is just deleveraging we are experiencing less people selling dollars. If u.s equities are to rebound it must occur at higher interest rates. Eurozone has faced slow growth since 1999 and the Euro isn't helping. One thing that shocks me the dollar has managed to reach 1.23 at lower interest rates than in Europe, lower GDP and higher budget deficit however in 1999 and 2000 it reached .83 when GDP was twice as high in America as in Europe that is growth. Interest rates were 2 percent higher and Rubin was repaying debt under high interest rates which should cause strength. Yet it only reached .83, not to mention dot com bubble where stock market grew twice as quickly as in Europe. Sorry not to mention that war in Iraq has cost more than 3 trillion. Ever since they invaded Iraq the dollar has gone from 1.05 to 1.6 and since they declared they would invade in september 2002 it has gone from .96 to 1.6
Forgot to mention Deutsche bank now has a 22 percent share in fx market, suggesting manipulation. I expect a massive dollar rally when Obama pulls out of Iraq.

The above quoted post is intelligent. The dollar will rally as soon as Obama starts spending in infra-structure. Troops won't leave Iraq too fast. They need to police the oil pipe lines. Also, EUR still has to retrace 1.24

Originally Posted by beeryboogy

Hey, how's it going? I can tell you why the EURUSD went up today... I read on the DailyFx Plus site that there's a New York bank tech team who sent out a "we're going long EUR/USD" piece today at around 12:30ET... they recommended going long the EURUSD pair when the price was around 1.2874, which is when the price started its afternoon climb up to 1.3033. So, many of their customers bought into this pair today, and I'm sure the word spread and also there was probably a lot of short covering as well that propelled it up.

I did the same as you (against my trading plan, dang it!) and kept averaging down as the price climbed up and up... thinking that it was retracing some Fib levels from the previous selloff and would turn back around. Well, it didn't and remained up in the high 1.2900's until the close. So I am currently under water, short 6 lots and about 275 pips! Ouch. And that's half of my little Micro account too.... double ouch. ;-) I would have closed the position today before the close, but I read that the market would close at 5pm New York time...and it closed at 4pm! What the heck? So I am stuck with 6 lots in a losing trade with the weekend risk. Lovely.

What we have in our favor though are a couple things: 1) the overall daily trend is STILL down; I don't think this was a major reversal. 2) The price was propped also by the US equity market rallying today, but I think the US market is still in a downtrend too. 3) The EURUSD fell back from its high today by 60 pips before closing up a bit from there, so that's a bearish sign (or maybe just selling before the weekend?). 4) The price struggled to break through the 5-day composite M/A at 1.3012, and the upper Bollinger lines at 1.3075/1.3155 were never in danger. 5) The EURUSD made fresh 6-week lows today - at least an attempt to retest that may be made.

So I think the conclusion is that we're in some choppy sideways trading between 1.28 and 1.33 until that range is broken on a close price.

Now, if my account equity holds out (I may have to cover a couple lots at a loss on Sunday night to make sure it does), then I think we'll be OK over the next couple days if you're short. But who knows what the weekend will bring, and whether this NY tech team will push their bullish recommendation again... if so, I would almost call that market manipulation.

Bryan

Call it what you want you better stop worrying about the fundamentals and start using stops or you won't be around long. You need to stick to your trading plan and you should never let a loss run up 275 pips. Sounds like your trying to trade techincally while allowing the fundamentals to cloud your judgement, giving you some false hope that your right and the markets wrong, which is never the case! Also, you should never add to a losing position.
As far as the Amero, I think its possible but would take time to implement. Neo-nazi Hal is just plain out of his mind as usual.

The UK had 864 billion dollars inpublic debt in 2007. It plans to sell 146 billion pounds of bonds in 2009. So 200 billiion dollars more. In total it has a 1.064 trillion national debt in dollars. Economy size 2.78 trillion dollars. Public debt 38 percent of GDP. UK also has lower unemployment than Germany.

Germany which has public debt 1.93 trillion dollars as of 2006. Nearly double what UK has. GDP, 3.8 trillion dollars. Debt is nearly 50 percent of GDP.

May I ask why do countries not and on GDP year on year, like they add on debt. Oh yeah because Europe would be light years behind the u.s if the were to take into account the last 100 years. Combine GDP from last 100 years in Europe and do same for U.S and you get a massive difference. I suppose Europe has produced one fifth or even less to what America produced over last 100 years.

Originally Posted by lloydblankfein

The UK had 864 billion dollars inpublic debt in 2007. It plans to sell 146 billion pounds of bonds in 2009. So 200 billiion dollars more. In total it has a 1.064 trillion national debt in dollars. Economy size 2.78 trillion dollars. Public debt 38 percent of GDP. UK also has lower unemployment than Germany.

Germany which has public debt 1.93 trillion dollars as of 2006. Nearly double what UK has. GDP, 3.8 trillion dollars. Debt is nearly 50 percent of GDP.

May I ask why do countries not and on GDP year on year, like they add on debt. Oh yeah because Europe would be light years behind the u.s if the were to take into account the last 100 years. Combine GDP from last 100 years in Europe and do same for U.S and you get a massive difference. I suppose Europe has produced one fifth or even less to what America produced over last 100 years.

lloyd
the euro is growing again
what should we do on monday ?

your analysis are correct but , are they long term or short term analysis?
thank you in advance for the indeepth analysis, friend

Originally Posted by 4xwannabe

lloyd
the euro is growing again
what should we do on monday ?

your analysis are correct but , are they long term or short term analysis?
thank you in advance for the indeepth analysis, friend

that is what i want to know! this scares me. we have eurolinux who says it will go to 1.5(!!!) in one week. the amero is coming and Lloyd now says Deutsche bank are manipulating the market - just like hitler lol.

thanks to eurolinux and his analysis/charts i won some of my losses back last night but i dont know what to do on monday. THANK YOU EUROLINUX!!

i still believe euro is finished and Germany is going bankrupt. but when will this happen? will it go to 2.0 first and then collapse? i think it might now.

Originally Posted by lloydblankfein

The UK had 864 billion dollars inpublic debt in 2007. It plans to sell 146 billion pounds of bonds in 2009. So 200 billiion dollars more. In total it has a 1.064 trillion national debt in dollars. Economy size 2.78 trillion dollars. Public debt 38 percent of GDP. UK also has lower unemployment than Germany.

Germany which has public debt 1.93 trillion dollars as of 2006. Nearly double what UK has. GDP, 3.8 trillion dollars. Debt is nearly 50 percent of GDP.

May I ask why do countries not and on GDP year on year, like they add on debt. Oh yeah because Europe would be light years behind the u.s if the were to take into account the last 100 years. Combine GDP from last 100 years in Europe and do same for U.S and you get a massive difference. I suppose Europe has produced one fifth or even less to what America produced over last 100 years.

your right. europe is really useless!

Originally Posted by deltauk

that is what i want to know! this scares me. we have eurolinux who says it will go to 1.5(!!!) in one week. the amero is coming and Lloyd now says Deutsche bank are manipulating the market - just like hitler lol.

thanks to eurolinux and his analysis/charts i won some of my losses back last night but i dont know what to do on monday. THANK YOU EUROLINUX!!

i still believe euro is finished and Germany is going bankrupt. but when will this happen? will it go to 2.0 first and then collapse? i think it might now.

they are both right
and if the euro goes to 1.5 and then to 2 or more that is too bad for the euro
bcs everyone will begin selling it more , so that will be the end of the german euro, but i think lloyd is more right , bcs he makes indeep analysis while eurolinux is just a scapler

i think the spanish and the irish and the greeks are doing it right, withdrowing themselves to their money , at least they are safe, uk is another story of course

Originally Posted by 4xwannabe

lloyd
the euro is growing again
what should we do on monday ?

your analysis are correct but , are they long term or short term analysis?
thank you in advance for the indeepth analysis, friend

I think you and Lloyd should go all in euro LONG, your posts keep saying its going to 1.5 and 2 and above, put your money where your post are and go for it

Originally Posted by 4xwannabe

ahahaa
saturday and sunday the markets are close
only the jpy is allowed to be traded in weekend

euro will be 2 very soon
it is a matter of weeks
the germans won this time

can you please tell me where i can trade jpy today??? i need to make some more of my losses back. thanks friedn. i cannot get through to FXPRO!!!! GRRRRR!!!!

typical of japanese. suprised the Germans don't force everyone to trade euro at weekend lol....

Originally Posted by CodyB

I think you and Lloyd should go all in euro LONG, your posts keep saying its going to 1.5 and 2 and above, put your money where your post are and go for it

will do. thanks buddy! just wanted someone like you or lloyd to give me trade call.

Originally Posted by deltauk

can you please tell me where i can trade jpy today??? i need to make some more of my losses back. thanks friedn. i cannot get through to FXPRO!!!! GRRRRR!!!!

typical of japanese. suprised the Germans don't force everyone to trade euro at weekend lol....

i am trying to contact a broker in Limasol, cyprus and another one in nassau
they have leverage 1:600, that is great, but they accept only western union not credit cards, too bad

Cody B , you are number one too , same as me

Originally Posted by 4xwannabe

they are both right
and if the euro goes to 1.5 and then to 2 or more that is too bad for the euro
bcs everyone will begin selling it more , so that will be the end of the german euro, but i think lloyd is more right , bcs he makes indeep analysis while eurolinux is just a scapler

i think the spanish and the irish and the greeks are doing it right, withdrowing themselves to their money , at least they are safe, uk is another story of course

the irish should defintiely leave the euro as soon as possible! it is of no benefit to them right now. they would be better off without the hitler/german currency. whatever oyu want to call it. if they had there own currency i would buy loads of it. they have better economy then the Germans for sure. so do the spanish and greece and italy. if they left the euro it would collapse within a week. who wants as german currency???? nobody for sure.

Originally Posted by 4xwannabe

i am trying to contact a broker in Limasol, cyprus and another one in nassau
they have leverage 1:600, that is great, but they accept only western union not credit cards, too bad

Cody B , you are number one too , same as me

they must be good with that leverage! wow. serious bucks to be made.

have great weekend all! happy pips!

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